Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Week 9’s Monday capper brings us a fascinating matchup between two teams battling for playoff spots in the AFC. The Chargers sit at 3-4 and travel to the Meadowlands to battle a resilient Jets team that would be just half a game out of first place in the AFC East with a win.
Los Angeles’ defense has struggled this season, but their offense is among the league’s best, especially with the return of running back Austin Ekeler. The Jets are the complete opposite, featuring a strong defense with a conservative offense led by quarterback Zach Wilson.
Here is my favorite prop bet for the Week 9 Monday night matchup.
Monday Night Football Best Bets
Austin Ekeler Over 46.5 Rushing Yards
(-115, Caesars)
This Chargers offense enters Monday limited in the passing game. They have been adjusting all season without big-play wideout Mike Williams, and now will be without wide receiver Joshua Palmer, who went on injured reserve with a knee injury. Look for Los Angeles to attack this Jets defense on the ground, led by a fully healthy Austin Ekeler.
The Jets are one of the NFL’s true funnel defenses, ranking sixth against the pass but 19th against the run. The Chargers passing attack will feature Keenan Allen, but rookie wideout Quentin Johnston has yet to impress this season and has struggled to separate from defenders. I expect the Chargers to rely heavily on Ekeler, despite the fact he has yet to put forth a big rushing performance this season.
The Jets have been susceptible to big rushing performances to opposing running backs. Saquon Barkley totaled 128 rushing yards with an anemic Giants offense, Kansas City’s Isiah Pacheco pounded away for 115 rushing yards, and Denver backup running back Jaleel McLaughlin averaged 7.6 yards per carry with a struggling Broncos ground attack.
Our FTN Model projects Ekeler for 61.5 rushing yards, equating to a 10.7% edge and 64.1% chance of winning. Based on the Chargers’ limited passing game weapons, the Jets run funnel defense, in a close game with only a 40-point total, I’m backing Ekeler to beat this rushing number strictly out of necessity.
