Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Week 7 brings us a pivotal matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Minnesota Vikings. The 49ers are coming off a shocking 19-17 loss to the Browns with backup quarterback PJ Walker. The Vikings started the season 0-3 but have won two of their last four games and have a chance to take sole possession of second place in the NFC North with a win. This game has a relatively low 43-point total, with San Francisco a substantial 6.5-point road favorite.
Here is my favorite prop bet for tonight’s Monday Night matchup!
Alexander Mattison Over 17.5 Receiving Yards
(-114, FanDuel)
Most sports bettors remained concerned about Alexander Mattison’s rushing usage with Cam Akers now residing in the Vikings backfield. While Akers has seen 11 carries the past three weeks with Minnesota, he has only been targeted five times total in the passing game, with a bleak average of 4.2 yards per reception.
Mattison has been an integral part of the passing game all season and should see even more work during the absence of wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Excluding a Week 4 outlier of just one target, the Vikings versatile running back has seen a robust 5.4 targets and 3.4 receptions per game. Minnesota enters this matchup as a substantial home underdog in a game that is critical to maintain their playoff aspirations. Mattison has crested this number in two of the three home games this season and tied a season-high with seven targets last week in the win over Chicago. He is a skilled receiver who aggressively fights through tackles for extra yardage.
San Francisco’s pass defense is so strong (2nd best in DVOA) that teams need to attack the 49ers through the air with their running backs. San Francisco is allowing 7.5 targets per game to opposing running backs, the fifth-highest rate this season. In a game that projects the Vikings for a negative game script, I’m grabbing Mattison’s over in receiving yardage, while most continue to try to solve the puzzle of his rushing share with Akers.
