Week 7 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Christian McCaffrey from EV Insight

Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards

Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 64.5 (-110) after it opened @ 56.5 (-113).

Pros

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.
The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 8th-most run-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 41.3% run rate.
The predictive model expects Christian McCaffrey to total 15.7 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Christian McCaffrey has earned 64.9% of his team’s carries this year, placing him in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Christian McCaffrey’s 101.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year conveys a a significant boost in his running prowess over last year’s 68.0 figure.

Cons

Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are projected by the projection model to run only 62.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 55.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Vikings defense has had the 5th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up just 3.78 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
When it comes to the defensive tackles’ role in defending against the run, Minnesota’s unit has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 5th-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
68
Rushing Yards