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Maximize your return with these NFL middles – NFL Betting 2021

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During the regular season, we are constantly looking for middles between books or due to closing line values that give us ways to win both bets. Essentially on a -110 you have 20-1 odds that a player or team lands in the middle of both numbers and you win both bets.

Middles on spreads and totals can be difficult outside of live betting, while player props require pretty serious line movement or books proving very different numbers. However, in the futures markets there are plenty of opportunities to take advantage of. I am typically looking for at least 200 yards passing, 100 yards rushing or receiving or one full touchdown in order to consider the middle valuable enough to bet. 

Any bigger than that range and it is practically an auto bet — especially when the median projections of our Jeff Ratcliffe and Kyle Murray have them landing between the two.

Here are three middles that should be taken advantage of before they go away.

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NFL betting props – Bet these middles

A look at a few of the middles I am betting right now at various legal sportsbooks.

Justin Jefferson offers betting value

Under 1,375.5 receiving yards (-112, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Over 1,225.5 receiving yards (-115, PointsBet)

Looking at Jeff Ractliffe’s projections, Justin Jefferson is projected for 1,302 receiving yards, smack dab in the middle of a 150-yard difference between books. 150 receiving yards is practically a two-game difference in production — a massive middle opportunity. Jefferson had one of the best rookie years in the history of football in 2020, catching 88 passes for 1,400 yards, 15.9 yards per reception. Heading into his second year, Jefferson is set to be the alpha everywhere but the red zone for the Vikings, and if he stays healthy he figures to put up big yardage numbers once again. A total of 1,375.5 is a massive number — one I would lean under on — but with a middle opportunity like this, this is the no-brainer approach. 

Joe Mixon middle is a must

Under 1,165.5 rushing yards (-110, FOX Bet)
Over 995.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)

If you’ve been following along with my picks in the FTN Bet Tracker, you have been on this Mixon under for a while – FOX Bet simply mispriced him. I originally grabbed the line at over 975.5 on Caesars Sportsbook, but that line has since come up, and 995.5 is the best possible number on the over. That is still a 170-yard middle opportunity for the oft-injured Joe Mixon, who has a median projection of 999 rushing yards by Jeff Ratcliffe and 1,124.5 by Kyle Murray. Both numbers fall within our middle, making me feel even better about it. This is what I originally wrote about the under 1,165.5 back in June:

“To be honest, this is a bad line. DraftKings Sportsbook opened Mixon at a 1,000.5-rushing-yard prop, and we have him projected form 996.5. Mixon has gone over this number just once in his four-year NFL career, and it took him averaging 4.9 yards per carry to do it. He has missed games in three of his four seasons and is running behind FTN’s No. 29 offensive line. Mixon played on 63% or less of the snaps in 50% of his games last season, and the Bengals ran the ball on just 39.52% of plays in 2020, 36.7% the year before.”

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Javonte Williams provides the perfect sweet spot

Under 875.5 rushing yards (-110, FOX Bet)
Over 750.5 rushing yards (-115, PointsBet)

I know there have been some reports that Melvin Gordon is definitely the starter in Denver, but I also definitely don’t believe them. George Paton, the Broncos new GM, signed Mike Boone as his first signing as GM and then traded up to draft Javonte Williams. Follow the team’s actions, not its words. Williams is someone I am high on in fantasy this year and loved grabbing his original over at PointsBet of 725.5. Even with it up 25 yards on PointsBet, this middle still makes a ton of sense as it passes our 100-yard threshold test. Jeff has Williams projected for 796 rushing yards, while Kyle has him for 879, just above our middle. With the median projection falling in the middle of both numbers and being able to grab a 125-yard cushion, this is a no-brainer bet. 

(Get all my NFL betting picks here)

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