NFL Player Props - Two key bets to make

As prop bet lines continued to get released, being on top of them is key. I have written up Josh Allen over 4,130.5 passing yards as an extreme value, and the line has since adjusted, raising by 170 passing yards in the last week alone. Normally I have three player props in these pieces, but today I am only seeing the value on two.

I would hurry on the first one, as this line is sure to fall.

Two prop bets to make

Joe Mixon under 1,165.5 rushing yards

-110, FOX Bet Sportsbook

To be honest, this is a bad line. DraftKings Sportsbook opened Mixon at a 1,000.5-rushing-yard prop, and we have him projected form 996.5. Mixon has gone over this number just once in his four-year NFL career, and it took him averaging 4.9 yards per carry to do it. He has missed games in three of his four seasons and is running behind FTN’s No. 29 offensive line. Mixon played on 63% or less of the snaps in 50% of his games last season, and the Bengals ran the ball on just 39.52% of plays in 2020, 36.7% the year before.

Cole Kmet over 44.5 catches

+100, PointsBet

Kmet has been outstanding in OTAs. From a piece in The Athletic, “The ball always seemed to find him, regardless of who was at quarterback.” Kmet came on strong at the end of the season — starting in Week 12, he played 79% or more of the snaps in the final six games, averaging 5.5 targets per game. Prior to that, he failed to have over three receptions in all but one game. His late-season emergence is no fluke; the second-round pick from Notre Dame is a good athlete and said to be a fixture in the offense. Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney and Kmet were on the field for “nearly every play” with the ones during OTAs. His target share in this offense should maintain his end-of-season usage, which projects out to a 93.5-target season, and at his 63.6% catch rate last season would have him projected at 59.5 receptions. While that is likely high (FTN has him projected for 51 receptions), his usage in this offense should dictate more than his 44.5 catch line at PointsBet, and at plus money, it is a good value.

(Get all my NFL betting picks here)