NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Today’s the day. The 2024 NFL Draft is here, but there’s enough time to channel our inner Kevin Costner and get one more mock draft in. This is my final mock of this year’s predraft process. Unlike previous mocks where I messed around with ideas and scenarios, the goal for this mock is to be as close to the real thing as possible. Will I get there? Of course not, but based on all the intel, betting odds, beat writer reports and rumor mills, here’s how I see the first-round unfolding.
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2024 NFL Mock Draft 4.0 — First Round
1. Chicago – Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Write it in stone.
2. Washington – Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
While we can’t necessarily do the same thing at No. 2, the momentum is there for Daniels to be the second pick. He’s currently -850 to go in this spot.
3. New England – Drake Maye, QB, UNC
The Patriots beat said the team really wants a quarterback in the first round. The easiest way to get one is to stick and pick. While some thing JJ McCarthy could go in this spot, I’m sticking with the chalk. Maye is -280 to be the third overall pick.
4. Arizona – Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Despite widespread rumors that the Cardinals could trade out of this spot, the betting markets say that’s a longshot. They’re currently -350 to not trade here. That makes this selection a gimme putt with Harrison -370 to be the fourth pick.
5. Minnesota (trade with LA Chargers) – JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan
Unlike Arizona, the Chargers are slight favorites to trade out of this spot at -118. Both Minnesota and the Giants are rumored to covet McCarthy, but the Vikings get the job done offering the 11th overall pick and next year’s first to get up to this spot. McCarthy is the favorite at five (+250), is -172 to go under pick 5.5, and +240 to go to the Vikings.
6. NY Giants – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
With the Vikings leapfrogging them, the Giants go with the next best player on the board and grab Nabers. They’re -230 to go wide receiver and Nabers is the favorite to be the sixth pick (+145).
7. Tennessee – Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
This pick hasn’t changed in any of my five mocks, and why should it? Alt is the heavy favorite at seven (-190) and is -350 to be the first offensive lineman selected.
8. Atlanta – Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
Likewise, I’ve had this pick in all five mocks as well. Like Alt, Turner is the favorite to be the first selected at his position (-110) and to go in this spot (+170)
9. Chicago – Byron Murphy, IDL, Texas
The Bears could go in several directions with this pick, but Murphy came screaming up the board over the last 24 hours. He’s now the betting favorite at nine (+175) and is -125 to be a top 10 pick.
10. NY Jets – Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
With a 40-year-old quarterback, the Jets continue to push all in and get Aaron Rodgers a big-bodied weapon on the perimeter. Yes, Odunze is -172 to go under pick 8.5, but the odds at seven, eight and nine suggest a realistic chance of him sliding to this spot.
11. LA Chargers (trade with Minnesota) – JC Latham, OT, Alabama
Jim Harbaugh kicks off his tenure by solidifying the trenches. Latham’s betting markets have shifted significantly over the last day, with him now -162 to go under pick 10.5. Yes, this is an over, but only barely.
12. Denver – Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
The Broncos are favored to draft a quarterback with their first pick (+160), but it’s tough to see them reaching in this spot. If they stick and pick, edge is the next most likely spot at +185. Latu’s line is 16.5, but he’s -166 on the under.
13. Las Vegas – Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
Like Denver, cooler heads prevail in Vegas, and the Raiders don’t reach for a quarterback. They’re favored to go offensive line here (+150) and Fuaga is -144 to go under pick 13.5.
14. New Orleans – Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
There are very few locks in the first round, but the Saints going offensive line with their first pick seems to be one of them according to the betting markets. They’re currently -700 to pick an offensive lineman in this spot. Fashanu has the same line as Fuaga, but he’s -160 on the over.
15. Indianapolis – Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
The slide is over for Bowers. While many have him going to the Jets at 10, his betting odds suggest this range is more likely. He’s favored to go over pick 11.5 at -136. The Jets remain the betting favorite to draft him (+190), but the Colts aren’t far behind at +300.
16. Seattle – Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington
Like many teams in the first round, the Seahawks are favored to go offensive line with their first pick (-155). Fautanu’s pick line is 15.5, and he’s favored to go over (-192).
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17. Jacksonville – Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Mitchell is a slight favorite to go under pick 15.5, but with offensive linemen flying off the board, corner ends up dropping. He slides to the Jags, who are favored to draft a corner at -185.
18. Cincinnati – Graham Barton, IOL, Duke
Offensive line is the betting favorite for Cincinnati (+110), so they grab the top interior guy on the board in Barton. His line is pick 21.5, but he’s a massive favorite to go under (-240).
19. LA Rams – Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
The betting markets like the Rams to go offensive line here (+130), but defensive line/edge isn’t far behind at +190. This seems to be the range for Verse with him currently sitting at -114 on either side of pick 19.5.
20. Pittsburgh – Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Only the Saints have shorter odds than the Steelers’ -390 to go offensive line with their first pick. They grab the Georgia product who is -162 to go under pick 21.5.
21. Miami – Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
Like the Rams just two picks earlier, Miami is favored to go offensive line (-180) but opts for the second favorite position on their board with an edge (+210). Robinson’s line is 25.5, and he’s -130 to go under.
22. Philadelphia – Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
The cornerback slide is real, and Howie Roseman takes full advantage. The run-on offensive linemen and edge rushes drops Arnold right into the Eagles’ lap. This is much later than his -122 to go over pick 15.5 would suggest, but there’s always a surprise player or two who drops in the first round.
23. Minnesota — Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
With their second pick in this round, the Vikings bolster their secondary with the moveable chess piece out of Iowa. DeJean figures to go in this range with his line currently at pick 23.5.
24. Dallas – Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
The Cowboys go “all-in” on offensive line with this pick, which aligns with the -250 odds to select the position first. Guyton is -900 to go in the first round and is -200 to go under pick 27.5.
25. Green Bay – Jackson Powers-Johnson, OC, Oregon
Matt LaFleur’s squad is favored to go offensive line (-125), so they grab the top center in this year’s class. The betting markets have Powers-Johnson -230 to go under pick 32.5. He’s also -210 to go in the first round.
26. Tampa Bay – Darius Robinson, DT, Missouri
Like Powers-Johnson, Robinson is heavily favored to be picked on Day 1 (-270). He’s -160 to go under pick 28.5 and the Bucs are favored to select a defensive lineman/edge (+170).
27. Arizona – Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
With Marvin Harrison on the board earlier in this round, the Cards grab help in their secondary. The betting markets like McKinstry to go under pick 28.5 (-154). He’s also -600 to be a first-round pick.
28. Buffalo – Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are out, and the Bills are -320 to go wide receiver in this spot. Sure, this might be a bit later than some might think for Thomas, but it isn’t crazy. His line has shifted two picks over the last 24 hours from 19.5 to 21.5 and he’s -122 on the over.
29. Detroit – Jer’Zhan Newton, IDL, Illinois
Dan Campbell said the Lions would consider trading out of this pick if their guy isn’t there. While the odds favor their guy to be a corner (+160), defensive line is close at +230. The Illinois product is -140 to go under pick 29.5 and is -310 to go in the first.
30. Las Vegas (trade with Baltimore) – Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
All signs point to Penix going in the first round, with him currently -350 to go under pick 32.5. With none of the teams in the back end of the round in need of a quarterback, we’re going to have to see a trade for him to be picked in this range. The Raiders package this year’s second (pick 44) along with their 2025 second rounder to get up and select Penix. Betting markets currently have Vegas as the favorite landing spot for Penix at +170.
31. San Francisco – Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
With rumors of a Brandon Aiyuk trade swirling, John Lynch grabs the speedster out of Texas. Worthy’s line is heavily favored to go over pick 27.5 (-210) but is also -800 to be a first-round pick.
32. Kansas City – Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
Why not round out this thing with another offensive lineman? Morgan is the tenth in the first round and he goes to a Chiefs team that is favored to select the position (-125). He’s currently -170 to go under pick 32.5.
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So, there you have it. In addition to the 10 offensive linemen (over 9.5 -220), we have five quarterbacks (over 4.5 -400), five wide receivers (under 6.5 -335), and one tight end. That’s a total of 21 offensive players (under 21.5 -182). That leaves us with 11 defensive players (over 10.5 -186): six defensive linemen/edge (no line) and five corners (under 5.5 -670). By conference, this mock has 10 players from the SEC (over 9.5 -235), eight from the PAC-12 (RIP, and over 7.5 +140), five from the BIG 10 (over 5.5 -125), four from the Big-12 (over 3.5 -162), and three from the ACC (under 4.5 -715). There’s also one independent (Alt from Notre Dame) and one Group of Five school (Mitchell from Toledo).
