2024 NFL Draft: Day 1 Takeaways

It was a historic first round of the 2024 NFL Draft Thursday, with three quarterbacks in the first three picks and six by the 12^th pick. The first defensive player didn’t go off the board until 15.

So now, as we gather ourselves in preparations for Friday’s Day 2, let’s take a step back and see how the moves and picks of Thursday matter (or don’t) for fantasy football in 2024.

Fantasy Football Fallout of the 2024 NFL Draft: Round 1

The Quarterbacks

Caleb Williams going first was, of course, not a surprise. Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye going 2-3 wasn’t really, either, though there was at least some debate over the order and whether it would actually be those two. But things went very sideways from there. If you can find a mock that had Michael Penix landing in Atlanta at eighth, you’ve found Biff with Gray’s Sports Almanac. The Vikings landing J.J. McCarthy was definitely on the table, but them being able to wait and trade up only one spot to grab him at 10 wasn’t the way most thought it would play out. And then Bo Nix landing in Denver at 12 after some questions of whether he’d even be a Day 1 pick capped off the signal callers (apparently the Broncos had him QB3 on their board).

For fantasy? It’s somewhat less earth-shaking. In Washington, Daniels — thanks to his potentially elite rushing ability — is the most likely one to be a significant fantasy factor off the bat, though Williams now gets the elite weaponry of DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze (more on him later) and could rack up the yardage. But even then, neither one looks like an immediate starter in one-QB leagues. We’re talking high-end QB2s.

And beyond those two, it’s somewhat slim pickings for fantasy. Penix is extremely unlikely to start in Atlanta with Kirk Cousins in town. Maye might in New England, though he’s widely regarded as one of the rawest quarterbacks in this year’s class and the Patriots did bring in Jacoby Brissett this offseason as a potential bridge. McCarthy is extremely young, and the Vikings did bring in Sam Darnold in free agency with designs on starting him if they couldn’t get their quarterback, so there’s an excellent argument for letting him develop as a backup as well, so it will be hard to get excited about his fantasy prospects either, even with some excellent weaponry in Minnesota. And then there’s Nix, who is now the odds-on favorite to start in Denver, but with one of the worst supporting casts in the league.

This quarterback class might look great in, say, 2026, from both a real football and a fantasy perspective. But in 2024, there’s a decent chance we as fantasy managers end up underwhelmed.

3 Top-10 Receivers

You’d have had to look for a while to find mocks that didn’t have all three of Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze in the top 10, but it’s rare that what we all expect to happen actually happens. It did here, with Harrison going fourth to the Cardinals, Nabers sixth to the Giants and Odunze ninth to the Bears. Those are potentially very strong landing spots for all three, though at least Odunze’s success might take time.

But let’s go chronologically. Harrison steps in right away as the clear No. 1-with-an-exclamation-point WR in Arizona. The departures of DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore over the last two offseasons depleted the Cardinals’ receiver room and left enough room for Harrison to come in and get 150 targets or more even in Year 1. He and Trey McBride could both finish as fantasy starters without breaking much of a sweat.

Likewise, Nabers becomes the WR1 with the Giants right away. His upside will depend a lot on whether the team gets the 2022 or 2023 version of Daniel Jones, but then giving Jones a potentially elite receiver is a good way to paper over some of his deficiencies. The Giants’ overall offense could limit Nabers’ production, but our own Jeff Ratcliffe’s initial projections still have the LSU product topping 1,000 yards and finishing as a high-end flex receiver. That’s a fair expectation, with room for more if things break right.

And then there’s Odunze, who heads to Chicago along with Caleb Williams in the most exciting offensive first round in Bears history. Odunze could be the WR1 in Chicago as early as 2026 or so … but he’s very unlikely to be that in 2024. DJ Moore remains from the 2023 roster, and the team brought in Keenan Allen this offseason. That’s great news for Caleb Williams, great news for Bears fans, great news for Matt Eberflus … but for Odunze, it means he’s going to be a supporting player to start. That could still turn into 700-ish yards, but the chances he has a real rookie breakout are slim, barring injury to one or both of the receivers ahead of him.

Brock Bowers to Las Vegas

There were rumors Bowers could go as early as top five early in the draft process, and you could even find decent odds on him as a top-10 pick early Thursday. In the end, though, the Georgia tight end fell to the Raiders at 13^th. It’s maybe a bit harsh to call this a disastrous landing spot for the rookie, but … is it? He could have landed with Aaron Rodgers in an all-in Jets offense one pick earlier. He could have become a part of the Colts’ TE-friendly and not-very-deep passing attack two picks later. Instead, he heads to Las Vegas, where he’s going to be behind at least Davante Adams and maybe Jakobi Meyers in the target pecking order, where he’ll battle 2023 rookie Michael Mayer and offseason signing Harrison Bryant at tight end, and where his quarterback will be Aidan O’Connell … unless it’s Gardner Minshew. There are places Bowers could have landed where he’d have been a TE1 or close. In Vegas? He’s a back-end TE2.

The Back Half of the First Round

After an insane flurry to open the draft, things cooled down after the Bowers pick. Still, we got a handful more interesting picks to close out the round.

Brian Thomas Jr. to Jacksonville

The Jaguars tried to hold on to Calvin Ridley in free agency, but after he left they needed more of a replacement than just Gabe Davis, and Thomas is that. Or, as our Adam Pfeifer said in Slack, “They basically just drafted Gabe Davis if Gabe was just a must better football player.”

Xavier Worthy to Kansas City

This made headlines possibly for more than just the pick, as the theoretically WR-needy Bills traded out of the pick to let the Chiefs, their AFC nemesis, take a receiver as well. Worthy now lands with, in some order, Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown catching passes from Patrick Mahomes, and … that’s scary. The problem for Worthy in fantasy is going to be figuring out exactly what slice of the pie he’ll manage to get in 2024, and we aren’t even going to be able to do much more than guess at that until we know what suspension, if any, Rice gets.

Ricky Pearsall to San Francisco

Does this portend a trade? The 49ers have been rumored to be trying to move at least one of Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel all offseason, with the team needing to figure out some way to save salary. Pearsall allows them to continue exploring that. Perhaps one of the big names goes before Day 2 for a second-rounder and/or some 2025 capital? If so, Pearsall in a Kyle Shanahan offense could be a fantasy factor right away.

Xavier Legette to Carolina

Another headliner because of the Bills trading out of the pick when most thought they needed a receiver, the Panthers traded up into the first round to nab Legette from nearby South Carolina. Legette was a one-year wonder in college, with 423 yards in four years before 1,255 in 2023. He probably sets up to be the WR2 in Carolina behind Diontae Johnson even with that, but unless/until Bryce Young takes a step forward in Year 2, and Legette shows more than he did in college, it’s a low-ceiling role.

Still to Come on Days 2 and 3

Our Adam Pfeifer broke down the six neediest (fantasy) position groups around the league heading into the draft. Of those, only the Vikings (quarterback) and Cardinals (wide receiver) have addressed those holes so far. The Cowboys (running back), Chargers (wide receiver), Bills (wide receiver) and Steelers (wide receiver) remain unaddressed, so don’t be surprised if those teams make moves at those slots soon.

As for best available, the quarterback ranks were obviously pretty picked over on Thursday. Running back and tight end were barely touched, with only Brock Bowers from the two groups. At wide receiver? There are at least three-four receivers who were considered first-round candidates (Adonai Mitchell, Ladd McConkey, Troy Franklin and more). So that’s likely to be the biggest domino to fall on Day 2. And it could come earlier, if a team like the Bills, who hold Pick 33, can work out a deal with the 49ers for someone like Brandon Aiyuk.