WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
When it comes to making the right moves for fantasy football, DFS and betting, one of the better advanced stats at our disposal is directional receiving data, which tells us about the strength of an offensive player (where he does his damage) and the philosophy of the defense.
Thus, the second act of the FTN Data Series will take you step by step through the process of using these directional stats to your advantage. The FTN Data Series will make you better bettors, DFS and fantasy football players, and researchers of NFL football. The sea of interesting and actionable information at FTN Data is vast. So vast, in fact, that at times it may be overwhelming. Where do you begin?
This series will break down advanced data into three parts — what it is, why you should care about it, and how you should use it.
Directional Stats for Receiving
The only FTN Tool we need for this one is the Directional Tool. We will focus on the passing game for this article, but the process can be mirrored to evaluate rushing matchups, as well.
I like to begin with the defensive side of the ball, so go ahead and click the link above, then select “defense” and “receiving.” It should look like so:
What are directional stats?
The directional stats break the field into six regions:
- Short left, short middle, short right
- Deep left, deep middle, deep right
The stats then tell us to which parts of the field a defense has allowed the most overall production (yards), as well as where they’ve allowed the most efficient production (yards per attempt).
Similarly, we can learn where each offensive player does the majority of their damage. We’re hoping, of course, to match up an offensive player’s strength with a defense’s weakness.
Why directional stats matter for football
It’s fairly easy to identify overall mismatches in football through the use of Vegas lines and overall efficiency metrics. We can consider these to be “macro” advantages, and the entire industry is aware of them. Consequently, when you identify a macro advantage, you gain no edge over a sportsbook or the DFS field.
Micro advantages are more difficult to find, but they’re also more valuable when found. Like blitz stats, directional stats have the potential to point to micro advantages.
However, directional stats are only predictive at the extremes. Let’s look at some examples.
Let’s compare the Arizona defense to Buffalo’s defense. Buffalo allows slightly more than league average production to the short left and deep right parts of the field, slightly less to the other areas. This certainly does not qualify as operating at the extremes.
On the other hand, the Arizona defense is dead last in yards allowed to both the short left and short right areas of the field while allowing little production to any of the deep sections. This is operating at the extremes, as this type of difference in production is indicative of their defensive philosophy to keep everything in front of them.
Sure enough, Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster lit them up in Week 1. Perhaps the best example of all though is Austin Ekeler’s 11-catch, 15-target performance against them since his production map is a perfect match with the Arizona defense:
A more recent example is A.J. Brown against the Tennessee Titans. Here’s Brown’s map:
And here’s Tennessee’s:
Mike Vrabel has been quoted as saying “you earn the right to rush the quarterback when you stop the run.” Such a philosophy requires that they trust their cornerbacks to hold up in one-on-one coverage on the outside, hence the dark green numbers to the deep left and deep right portions of the field. A.J. Brown consistently won those matchups en route to an 8-119-2 performance.
How to Use Directional Receiving Stats in Your Betting, DFS and Fantasy Football Analysis
Like with blitz stats, not every game, or even week, will have matchups where a clear and significant advantage exists. However, when they do exist, it creates more predictable production that can be taken advantage of in fantasy football, DFS, and the prop market.
In Week 14, there are a handful of spots that stand out to me, but we’ll highlight just one. Take a look at Pittsburgh’s defensive production map:
Wild, right? Anytime they face a player who produces in the middle of the field, it’s a great spot. For example, they were gashed earlier this season by David Njoku. Why is that relevant this week? Because the king of middle-of-the-field tight ends is Mark Andrews. I love his chance for a big game this week against Pittsburgh. Use him in DFS and take his overs on PrizePicks (use promo code FTN for a deposit match up to $100), and when he hits, you’ll know you need these directional stats in your life!
You could even start right now! Promo code BLICK gets you 20% off of any FTN subscription, be it FTNDaily, FTNBets or FTNFantasy. We also have free trials available for both Daily and Bets (you’ll still want to use the promo code).
