FTN Data Series — How to Use Blitz Stats

Blitz stats can be your secret weapon. This debut article of the FTN Data Series will take you step by step through the process of using them to your advantage. The FTN Data Series will make you better bettors, DFS and fantasy football players, and researchers of NFL football. The sea of interesting and actionable information at FTN Data is vast. So vast, in fact, that at times it may be overwhelming. Where do you begin?

This series will break down advanced data into three parts — what it is, why you should care about it, and how you should use it.

NFL Blitz Stats

We’ll begin with my absolute favorite — blitz stats. The two FTN tools we’ll be using are the Pressure Report and the Advanced QB Stats — Performance Against the Blitz.

What Are Blitz Stats?

For the purpose of evaluating a matchup with blitz stats, the Pressure Report provides four key data points for each defense:

• Blitz rate
• Hurry rate
• Sack rate
• Pressure rate

For example, note that Miami is seventh in blitz rate, but they fail to create much pressure at all (both hurry percentage and pressure percentage are color coded such that red is bad:

Why Blitz Stats Matter for Football

It’s fairly easy to identify overall mismatches in football through the use of Vegas lines and overall efficiency metrics. We can consider these to be “macro” advantages, and the entire industry is aware of them. Consequently, when you identify a macro advantage, you gain no edge over a sportsbook or the DFS field.

Micro advantages are more difficult to find, but they’re also more valuable when found. With blitz stats, we can find these micro advantages because they put defenses into catch-22 scenarios where they have no right answer.

Keep the Dolphins’ heavy blitz usage in the back of your mind as we head over the Advanced QB stats tool. The tool gives us an incredible number of advanced stats, but pay particular attention to average yards per attempt when blitzed (far right column):

Justin Fields is fifth. For context, he’s 17th in adjusted yards per attempt overall. In other words, Fields is significantly better as a passer when blitzed, but we also know that his greatest weakness is the number of sacks he takes. His 13.1% career sack rate would be one of the highest all time through two full seasons of a QB’s career.

Thus, Miami was left in a catch-22 situation in Week 9. They could either continue to blitz Fields at a high rate hoping to create pressure and sacks (but still being unlikely to do so), or give up all hope of creating pressure against a young QB who has yet to trust his offensive line. After all, their high blitz rate is no accident — it’s a direct result of their inability to create pressure without blitzing.

The result in Week 9 was staggering:

Fields posted perhaps the greatest game of his NFL career, including a remarkably high 95.4 QBR.

Fields against Miami is hardly the only example, however. In 2021, no QB dominated another team as much as Joe Burrow dominated Baltimore. In two games, Burrow averaged:

• 11.2 yards per attempt
• 470.5 yards per game
• 3.5 TDs per game

Like Miami this season, Baltimore was highly reliant on the blitz in 2021. Don Martindale has continued his blitz-heavy ways this season with the Giants, but in 2021 he took it to a different level, leading the league in blitz rate by a comfortable margin. After his secondary was depleted with injuries, he ramped up the blitz in an attempt to create pressure and turnovers, knowing it would also make them vulnerable to big plays — a necessary risk given the state of his secondary.

The problem for Baltimore against Joe Burrow and the Bengals was that Burrow was, and continues to be, incredible against the blitz. In their first matchup, Baltimore blitzed a ton. Burrow averaged 10.9 yards per attempt and Ja’Marr Chase had a field day:

In their next matchup, Baltimore tried to adjust by blitzing less and well, it had a different effect, but was no more effective:

We saw both sides of the catch-22 in this heavyweight matchup last year. Whether they blitzed Burrow or not, they chose the wrong answer.

How to Use Blitz Stats in Your Betting, DFS and Fantasy Football Analysis 

The most important thing to realize is that not every game, or even week, will feature a blitz stats matchup that presents the defense with a catch-22 situation. I always begin with the Pressure Report, looking for teams that rely on the blitz. Whenever they face a QB that excels vs. the blitz, it’s a potential explosion spot for that offense.

Here in Week 10 of the 2022 season, it’s no accident that I chose to highlight blitz stats. Recall the screenshot above on adjusted yards per attempt leaders vs. the blitz. 

Tua Tagovailoa of the Dolphins gets to face Cleveland and their eighth-highest blitz rate while Fields gets another excellent matchup with the Lions and their second-highest blitz rate. 

I expect both to have excellent games, and when they do, you’ll know it’s time to sign up for FTNDaily, FTNBets or FTNFantasy, all of which will give you access to this gold mine of NFL data.

You could even start right now with a free trial! In any case, use promo code BLICK for 20% off whichever you prefer (use it with the free trial too in case you eventually choose to subscribe).