Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Multiple times each week, Brad Evans, in this space, will ramble on about whatever random, likely tequila-influenced fantasy football/betting thoughts are coursing through his often-moronic mind. Today’s topic: The fantasy fakes of this year’s draft season.
Duped. Swindled. Hoodwinked.
During his decades long career as a premier con artist, Fred Demara, up until his death in 1982, wound a course filled with falsities. Over the years he masqueraded as a naval surgeon, civil engineer, sheriff’s deputy, assistant prison warden, doctor of applied psychology, hospital orderly, lawyer, child-care specialist, teacher, Benedictine monk and cancer researcher. Equipped with a photographic memory and magnetic personality, he lived multiple lives nearly undetected.
He was, as the 1961 movie of his life was loosely based on, The Great Impostor.
Similar pretenders constantly lurk in fantasy football.
Every draft season masters in the art of deception, fraudsters who, by compelling coach quotes and glowing beat writer observations, convince fantasy drafters to overreach for their services. Though some cost nothing more than a beer-influenced late-round stab, other selections prove far more exorbitant. Step into a booby trap and chances are you’ll find yourself immobile, a permanent dweller in your league’s basement. In this silly little game we’re all one misstep away from destitution, and public acts of humiliation.
Without preseason action to verify, fantasy fans are constantly fed spoonfuls of hype. Every player is in remarkable shape. Every player looks sensational. Every player is poised to have a career year.
Attempting to pull off a mask to reveal their true identity, here is a list of top “Fantasy Fakes” who may squander fortunes this season:
Calvin Ridley, WR, Atlanta Falcons
(ADP: WR15, 38.7)
By the receiver’s account he’s done an incalculable number of squats in preparation for what he believes will be a career-setting campaign. His drumsticks may rival those of A.J. Dillion, but buy into the silliness thrusting weights will unlock his potential and this “trustworthy” salesman has a near mint T206 Honus Wagner up for auction.
Yes, Matt Ryan should compete for the pass attempts title this fall, but ask yourself, where will the targets come from? Julio Jones is the boss hog in this offense. Hayden Hurst is expected to slide into Auston Hooper’s red-zone dominated role. And Todd Gurley — ARTHRITIC KNEE and all — is slated to take on a prominent multidimensional role. Russell Gage and Laquon Treadwell are minor threats, but not much has changed since 2019. Another 16-18% target share (93 total last year) is on the agenda for the No. 2.
Ridley isn’t a sack of potatoes. Last season, he ranked WR21 in contested catch rate, WR24 in average depth of target (13.4) and WR17 in fantasy points per target. However, unless Julio decides to vacation in Siberia, there isn’t enough meat on the bone to justify the WR top-15 hype. The Riddler is fooling you again.
Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills
(RB27, 57.4)
Handing a box filled with precious, irreplaceable heirlooms labeled “fragile” to the Bills rusher isn’t recommended. According to The Athletic, he’s putting everything on the ground, a damning sign. His ball security issues aren’t new. As a rookie, Singletary posted one of the highest fumble rates at the position.
To be fair, Singletary masked his fumblitis with stellar per-touch efficiency. Last fall, he netted 3.00 yards after contact per attempt, ranked RB12 in yards created per touch, landed inside the top-10 in missed tackle rate, logged 11 runs of 15-plus yards and performed soundly as a receiver (29 catches). Undoubtedly, he was useful for virtual game devices, evidenced by his 0.83 fantasy points per touch (RB13).
However, rookie Zack Moss is just over his shoulder. His battering-ram ways, displayed often during his days as a Utah Ute (4.1 YAC per attempt in ‘19), has turned heads. He’s routinely blasted through tacklers and flashed reliable hands. Gaining significant momentum, he’s forcing the coaching staff to reassess the backfield distribution. It’s entirely plausible a 50-50 timeshare is implemented Week 1 against the Jets. If Singletary’s ball security issues carry over, he could soon be left choking on Moss’ dust.
Cam Newton, QB, New England Patriots
(QB19, 150.4)
Showcasing the accuracy of a blindfolded JaMarcus Russell in training camp, Cam is off to a rocky start in New England. In a scrimmage conducted late last week he completed a miserable 12 passes on 27 attempts. Yes, the Pats boast one of the stingiest secondaries in the league, but the veteran’s ineptitude is disconcerting.
As detailed a few weeks back, buying into a Cam renaissance is an exercise in futility. His unintended preparation for a dink-and-dunk offense while struggling through a compromised shoulder two years ago in Carolina offers encouragement, but if his rushing numbers dip, which sportsbook oddsmakers clearly believe, he’s essentially a poor man’s Daniel Jones. Yes, that’s how far the once indispensable QB1 has fallen. Look at his surroundings. He’s not throwing to Randy Moss or Rob Gronkowski. Julian Edelman is a trusty rock, but N'Keal Harry, Mohamed Sanu, Damiere Byrd, Jakobi Meyers and Devin Asiasi are not exactly world beaters.
He’s cheap, but Joe Burrow, Ben Roethlisberger and Gardner Minshew offer more upside at an almost identical price point. Hard pass.
Le'Veon Bell, RB, New York Jets
(RB21, 43.1)
Adam Gase continues to mystify the mind with his questionable decision making. The man probably dips a perfectly cooked filet mignon in ketchup. His latest shortcoming: trading for a historically bad Kalen Ballage when no NFL, CFL, XFL or semi-pro franchise would remotely consider rostering him. Hell, he isn’t even worthy of a defunct AAF team. Yet, the Jets genius decided to pursue the former Dolphin in exchange for a conditional draft pick. Brilliant.
Ballage’s acquisition combined with news Cenozoic-aged Frank Gore is having the “most productive” camp of any Jets rusher sound alarms. So does the recent scathing report the incumbent has looked unimpressive and slow throughout August. Bell downplayed hamstring concerns, but recent news ratchets worry. His inefficiency last season does, too. He ranked outside the top-30 in multiple critical categories including YAC per attempt, yards created per carry and missed tackle percentage. A hollowed-out husk compared to his Pittsburgh days, he’s entirely volume dependent. If Gore forces a split, he simply won’t leave investors in the black.
The Jets’ offensive line improvements and added downfield weapons (e.g. Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims) offer hope for favorable fronts. Signs, though, arrow to continued attrition. Don’t let the Bell toll for thee.
Bryan Edwards, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
(WR71, 187.6)
The buzz surrounding Edwards is deafening. Over the past several days, it’s been rare to wake up and not see a glowing blurb about the rookie wide receiver scroll across the screen. It’s unmistakable the adoration the Raiders coaching staff has for the young buck. Their admiration is understandable. The Round 3 pick in April’s NFL draft sports a stoutly frame (6-foot-3, 212 pounds) and seducing athletic profile. He was a premier playmaker in the SEC, a punishing receiver after the catch who is wired to score. Last season for the Gamecocks, he tallied a scintillating 7.7 yards after contact per reception.
Edwards’ potential is undeniable, but he isn’t without imperfections. More importantly, even if he starts, there simply aren’t enough targets for him to flourish. Last season, the Raiders called pass 54.5% of the time. With fellow rookie Henry Ruggs, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, Tyrell Williams and Nelson Agholor to compete with, he’s likely to only receive scraps. It would take several dominos to fall for him to register even 15% of the target share.
The greenhorn will have his moments and is an intriguing dynasty stash, but temper Year 1 expectations. If you’re hankering for an upside wideout late, teammate Renfrow, Laviska Shenault or Steven Sims are preferred options.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
(RB15, 27.4)
Cue Strokes classic “Bad Decisions.” Taylor, despite his extraordinary talents, is terribly overpriced in the early third round of 12-team exercises. All indications from multiple beat writer angles point to Marlon Mack remaining heavily involved. Scatback Nyheim Hines is also expected to take on a sizable multifaceted role, potentially logging action on all three downs. Get entangled in the Taylor web and you’ll miss out on Allen Robinson, Kenny Golladay or D.J. Moore. Again, it’s not the smartest move.
Candidly, Taylor is a wonderfully skilled RB with multiple Pro Bowls in his future. Last season for Bucky Badger, he totaled 3.93 yards after contact per attempt, compiled the third-most missed tackles of any FBS rusher and sprinted his way to the second-most 15-plus yard carries. Equipped with 4.39-speed and a durable 5-foot-10, 220-pound frame, he’s impeccably constructed for the NFL game. The problem, though, is Mack, a rusher who eclipsed 1,000 yards last season, scored eight times and finished RB6 in yards created per touch. He won’t go quietly.
In the end, 11-13 touches per game should be the early season standard for Taylor. Game flow and a projected hot-hand approach will make him wildly unpredictable. Sure, the Colts offensive line is a top-three unit and Frank Reich will adhere to a ground-heavy scheme, but it’s difficult to look past the sticker shock. Play the patience game instead and trade for the rookie after he underwhelms in September.
