Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Multiple times each week, Brad Evans, in this space, will ramble on about whatever random, likely tequila-influenced fantasy football/betting thoughts are coursing through his often-moronic mind. Today’s topic: The newly re-employed Cam Newton.
Whenever major news breaks about a superstar player, no matter his current condition or team affiliation, trumpeters immediately take to social media to serve up their hottest takes.
Most register Scoville units on par with the Carolina Reaper, searing perspectives that extend well beyond what most would deem sensible or palatable.
Two weeks ago, when Cam Newton — finally rescued from cold storage — signed with the New England Patriots Twitter feeds erupted with volcanic prognostications — Fire off on league MVP tickets! Load up on NE Super Bowl futures!! Consider Cam a fantasy QB1!!!
Even ancillary players, like N’Keal Harry (WR60, 152.8 ADP), received rosy treatment as bullhorns began tagging the sophomore wideout as one of the position’s top breakouts. Yes, that Harry coming off an “earth-shattering” rookie season in which he caught 12 balls for 105 yards and two touchdowns and was reportedly bewildered by the team’s playbook. His 39% success rate didn’t exactly titillate, either. Jaelen Strong the sequel? Time, as always, will tell, but selecting him over the likes of Michael Pittman, Hunter Renfrow or Larry Fitzgerald, all available at a similar price point, is a fool’s errand.
So what’s the level-headed approach with Cam?
If your league scores appreciably for flamboyant outfits, attire which accentuates the thigh and buttocks games, the fashionable passer is your man. Unless Ryan Fitzpatrick’s Connor McGregor alter-ego, exposed chest hair and complementary gold chains included, returns to a post-game podium near you, Newton is really unrivaled in the category. However, if you’re mired in a more traditional fantasy setting, he’s at best a borderline QB15.
To be fair, Cam’s dinged wing from two years ago unintentionally prepared him to play in Bill Belichick’s offense. In 2018, he ranked QB9 in adjusted completion percentage, QB5 in red-zone completion percentage and, most importantly based on what New England’s scheme is predicated on, No. 1 in play-action completion percentage. In layman’s terms, he should dink and dunk with success.
Though he fits the Pats system, concerns about Newton haven’t evaporated. His deep-ball game was horrendous two seasons ago (52.1 passer rating). More alarming, it’s not like he has a Randy Moss or Steve Smith Sr. to chuck the rock to. Obviously, Julian Edelman and James White — dirty workers underneath — are highly reliable within 10 yards, but can Harry, Mohamad Sanu, Marqise Lee, Jakobi Meyers or someone else effectively and consistently stretch the field? My confidence is deflated. Sportsbooks tend to agree. Newton’s passing TDs line at PointsBet is 22.5 (-115). Pound the under. And if you placed an MVP wager (32/1 at FanDuel, 30/1 Pointsbet, 20/1 DraftKings), prepare to roll and smoke those tickets in short order.
Cam’s likely depressed rushing output is another major reservation. He’s coming off a devastating Lisfranc sprain that could give him second thoughts on tucking and running. Under the radar, New England’s inflexible offensive line, which ranked No. 9 in adjusted line yards last year according to Football Outsiders, should better protect him and reduce his chances for opportunistic runs. Presumably more pocket tied, his scoring duality will be more ordinary than extraordinary. His 375.5 ground yards prop available on PointsBet (-154/+110) is very telling. Equally discouraging, the Pats’ stout D will limit his vertical volume. DraftKings’ 2,950 passing yards prop (-110/-110) paints a somber picture.
In a loaded QB class, Cam, though a household name, isn’t particularly spicy at his QB16 ADP (138.0). Throwing water on the fire, Daniel Jones (QB14, 126.6), Joe Burrow (QB19, 148.0) and Baker Mayfield (QB15, 133.5) should pack more heat.
Wham. Bam. No thank you, on Cam.
