NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The NFL season is getting closer and closer, as we begin to approach the start of training camp. This is a critical point in the offseason with new information continuing to cycle throughout the next couple weeks. It’s important to differentiate news from noise during this period while paying attention to what teams are telling us based on their actions. My primary focus will be on tracking positional and depth chart battles. Today I’m looking at running backs.
Check out my look at QB training camp battles.
Buffalo Bills: James Cook vs. Damien Harris vs. Latavius Murray
The Bills’ rushing attack has leaned heavily on Josh Allen, who has logged over a hundred carries in four straight seasons while leading the team in rushing touchdowns in four of the last five seasons. He saw a career-high 124 rushing attempts last season, to go along with 762 yards and 7 touchdowns on the ground. Head coach Sean McDermott has expressed his desire to lighten Allen’s rushing load. That said, they’ll be without Devin Singletary, who has led the team in rushing yards every season since entering the league as a rookie in 2018. 2022 second-round pick James Cook split backfield duties with Singletary last season, carrying the rock 89 times for 507 yards and two touchdowns. He was also a weapon in the passing game, catching 21 of 32 targets for 180 yards, and a touchdown. Buffalo added to the backfield in free agency, signing Damien Harris and Latavius Murray to one-year deals. Harris struggled with injuries last season but is two years removed from leading the NFL in rushing touchdowns, handling 202 carries for 929 yards and 15 scores in 2021. He’ll compete for the early-down and goal-line role with Murray, who led the Broncos’ rushing attack last season, totaling 106 carries for 703 yards and five touchdowns.
Chicago Bears: Khalil Herbert vs. D’Onta Foreman vs. Roschon Johnson
The Bears led the NFL in rushing yards last season, the only team with over 3,000 yards on the ground (3,014). They also finished second in the league in rushing attempts (558), trailing the Falcons by a single carry (559). Justin Fields played a significant role in the rushing department, leading the Windy City in rushing yards (1,143) and rushing touchdowns (8). Just behind Fields was David Montgomery, who accounted for a team-high 201 carries for 801 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns in 14 games. Montgomery split backfield duties with Khalil Herbert, who proved to be one of the most dynamic running backs in the league, finishing top-five in yards per carry (5.7) and yards after contact per carry (3.67). He also led the NFL in rushing yards over expected per attempt (1.44) and finished first in explosive run rate (0.17). Unable to reach an agreement with Montgomery, Chicago decided to go in a different direction and signed D’Onta Foreman in free agency, also adding another former Texas running back, Roschon Johnson, in the fourth round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Foreman is coming off a career year in Carolina last season, where he handled a team-high 203 carries for 914 yards and 5 touchdowns. Although Johnson’s collegiate numbers may not stand out, he was playing in the same backfield as Bijan Robinson and made the most of his limited opportunities. As the RB2 in 2022, Johnson still saw 146 total touches, logging 807 scrimmage yards and 8 touchdowns.
Denver Broncos: Javonte Williams vs. Samaje Perine
The news on Javonte Williams’s recovery has been positive, with recent reports suggesting he will be ready at the start of training camp. Williams was the lead back in Denver when healthy last season, averaging over 17 touches and 84 scrimmage yards in his first three games before the injury. Although the team remains optimistic about Williams’ status for Week 1, they added depth to the position this offseason, signing former Bengals running back Samaje Perine to a two-year contract with the fifth-most guaranteed money among all free agents at the position. As the primary pass-catching back in Cincinnati, Perine excelled as a receiver in 2022, catching a career-high 38 passes for 287 yards and four touchdowns. He was productive on the ground, handling 95 carries for 394 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. If Williams is unavailable to start the season, Perine should slot in as the lead back with little to no competition behind him. In two games as the starter last season, Perine averaged 24 touches, 124 scrimmage yards and 0.5 touchdowns.
Detroit Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs vs. David Montgomery
The Lions revamped their run game this offseason, parting ways with Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift. They signed David Montgomery to a multi-year deal in free agency, also spending a premium pick on a running back, selecting Jahmyr Gibbs at No. 12 overall. Montgomery spent the last four years in Chicago, with 800-plus rushing yards in every season. He’soperated as a workhorse back for most of his career and is unlikely to see the same level of volume playing alongside a first-round back. At 199 pounds, Gibbs has never handled more than 151 carries in a season but rushed for a career-high 926 yards and 7 touchdowns on the ground in his final season at Alabama. He was also lethal as a pass catcher out of the backfield, leading the team with 44 catches for 444 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns.
Miami Dolphins: Raheem Mostert vs. Jeff Wilson vs. De’Von Achane
The Dolphins re-signed Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson in free agency and circled back to the position in the NFL draft, selecting De’Von Achane in the third round as the RB3 overall. Although Mostert and Wilson were productive as a tandem last season, Achane’s draft capital suggests he should see the field early and often in what looks to be a three-headed monster. At 5-foot-9 and 185 pounds, Achane is unlikely to completely overtake the backfield but possesses a game-breaking upside with elite speed. He was a former track athlete at Texas A&M and clocked in at a 4.32-second 40-yard dash, the fastest among all running backs that participated in the 2023 combine. It’s also worth noting that the Dolphins have reportedly offered Dalvin Cook a deal that could make this situation a lot murkier.
Philadelphia Eagles: D’Andre Swift vs. Rashaad Penny vs. Kenneth Gainwell
The Eagles declined to re-sign Miles Sanders, who put together a career year in 2022, handling 259 carries for 1,269 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. Instead, Philadelphia opted for a more budget-friendly option and signed Rashaad Penny to a one-year contract. They also traded for D’Andre Swift. Penny and Swift have been two of the most productive backs on a per-touch basis the last few years, but neither player has played more than 14 games in a single season, regularly dealing with injuries. Third-year back Kenneth Gainwell should also see work, after leading the backfield in snaps (95), touches (40) and yards (181) in last year’s postseason. Although he’lllikely be a non-factor for most of the season, the Eagles also brought back Boston Scott, who always sees a significant uptick in usage when facing the Giants.
Seattle Seahawks: Kenneth Walker vs. Zach Charbonnet
Kenneth Walker had a slow start to his rookie season, recovering from an offseason sports hernia and playing second fiddle to Rashaad Penny. However, once Penny was lost for the season to a broken fibula, Walker burst onto the scene, leading Seattle’s rushing attack to a playoff berth. Walker surpassed 1,000 yards on the ground (1,050) in his first year, finding the end zone nine times in 15 games. Despite posting a strong rookie season, there were some red flags in Walker’s game — he finished with a 42% success rate, 41st among all qualified running backs. The Seahawks went back to the running back well in the 2023 draft, selecting Zach Charbonnet at 52 overall. Over the last two seasons, Charbonnet has led the FBS in scrimmage yards per game (168) while leading the PAC 12 in rushing yards in 2022 (1,359). He also excelled as a pass catcher, an area where Walker struggled. In his final season at UCLA, Charbonnet logged a career-high 37 receptions for 321 receiving yards.
Washington Commanders: Brian Robinson vs. Antonio Gibson
The Commanders began to sour on Antonio Gibson last offseason and spent a fourth-round pick on former Crimson Tide running back Brian Robinson (No. 98). Robinson had reportedly won the lead back role in Washington, before getting shot and missing the first four games of the season. Robinson took command of the backfield once he returned, but neither back was efficient, averaging less than four yards per carry. It’s hard to put too much blame on Robinson recovering from a gunshot wound, but it’s fair to assume he should be much healthier at the start of next season. New offensive coordinator, Eric Bieniemy has sung Gibson’s praises this offseason, planning to utilize his versatile skill set.
