NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Week one of the fantasy playoffs is over outside of the Packers vs. Rams matchup tonight. Some of us may have punched our ticket to the next round already, while some may need a Monday night miracle.
If you already punched your ticket, you may have benefitted from one of the huge performances of Jerick McKinnon, Zay Jones or Josh Allen. As we look forward to round two of the playoffs, let’s break down a few takeaways from this week that can help us next week.
Jerick McKinnon is a must start
For the second week in a row, Jerick McKinnon led the backfield in fantasy production for the Chiefs. This was made possible by his second straight 30-plus point performance which also included his second two-touchdown performance in back-to-back weeks. He saw a season-high 10 carries, which he turned into 52 yards and a score. Additionally, he caught a season-high eight balls for 70 yards and a score. This led to 34.2 PPR points and is currently the top performance from the running back position. If this holds, it will be his second in as many weeks.
He didn’t lead the backfield in carries, but he did lead all backs in touches with 18, as Isiah Pacheco saw 16 touches, 15 of which were on the ground. McKinnon is now the clear passing-down back which is gold in this Chiefs offense. With this role and back-to-back massive performances, he is a must-start in week two of the playoffs if you are lucky enough to roster him.
Trevor Lawrence is the real deal
For the second week in a row, Trevor Lawrence posted a 20-plus point performance – his sixth 20-plus performance of the year. This time he did it against a vaunted Cowboys defense with both his legs and arm. Lawrence passed for over 300 yards for the third time in four games and paired this with four touchdowns – his third three-plus touchdown performance in four weeks. He also added 21 yards on the ground, en route to 26.82 fantasy points. This is currently good enough for QB5 this week. This will be his eighth top-12 performance of the year and his third top-5 finish in four weeks – if it holds up. Currently, Lawrence is QB9 on the season averaging over 18 points per game as of Week 14.
As we head into the second week of the playoffs, he draws the Jets, another plus matchup. Lawrence will continue to be a quality start in a must-win situation.
A.J. Brown has a monster week
A.J. Brown tied a career-high with 16 targets this week in the matchup with the Bears and caught nine of them for a monster 181 yards, but frustratingly failed to find the end zone. He finished the week with 27.1 PPR points and a WR4 finish (pending MNF). This was his fourth performance of 20-plus PPR points and his second in three weeks. Over the last three weeks, he is WR2 with 76 PPR points, trailing only Justin Jefferson who has 82.2 PPR points.
As we head into Week 16, he draws a plus matchup with the Cowboys – who just gave up the WR1 performance to Zay Jones (six receptions, 109 yards and three touchdowns). We can expect a similar performance from Brown in a win-or-go-home fantasy matchup.
Diontae Johnson is the benefactor of a quarterback change
Diontae Johnson saw 10 targets for the seventh time this year and the fourth time with Mitch Trubisky under center. However, this was only the second time he saw double-digit targets in seven weeks. With this 47% target share, we saw him catch every target and go for 98 yards but failed to find the end zone. This was still good enough for 20 PPR points and a top-12 finish this week (pending MNF).
The unfortunate thing is that this production is likely tied to Trubisky, as Johnson has finished with double-digit PPR points in all but one game that Trubisky started. So if we see Kenny Pickett return to the lineup next week, Johnson becomes less appealing – even in a plus matchup with the Raiders, who have allowed 34.8 PPR points per week to wide receivers on average this season.
David Montgomery is a must-start going forward
In what many expected to be a blowout this week, many faded David Montgomery. However, if you did, you regretted it. Montgomery went for 91 scrimmage yards and two scores on 15 touches. He posted his best fantasy performance to date this year, as he finished with 24.7 PPR points – currently RB6 (pending MNF). This was his fourth straight double-digit PPR week and his third top-12 finish in four weeks. Since Week 11, he is RB11 in PPR scoring with 76.2 PPR points and is the only player in the top 12 who has not played in five games during this span (4).
If you are lucky enough to roster him and have advanced to round two of the playoffs, Montgomery will likely reward you again. He draws the Bills, who just gave up 188 yards to the Dolphins – 136 yards to Raheem Mostert alone. Montgomery is a must-start in Week 16 and will likely be a key piece to your success.
