NFL Usage Report for Week 15: Late-Season Surprises

It’s fantasy playoff time, and that means it’s time for us all to brace ourselves for some under-the-radar names to drastically alter the fantasy landscape. Every year there are a few players who burst onto the scene late in the season, and win (or lose) fantasy championships.

In this week’s Usage Report, I’m looking at one player at each position who may fit that mold, and I’ll use data to make an argument for why they can or can’t be trusted down the stretch. Let’s get to it.

Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers

Raise your hand if you had Brock Purdy starting during the fantasy playoffs on your bingo card entering the season… no one? OK, that’s what I thought.

In his first two starts, Purdy finished as the QB8 and the QB18. His finish in his third start is TBD, but he just put up 20 fantasy points against the Seahawks Thursday. Even with Deebo Samuel currently on the sidelines, Purdy has a litany of weapons around him on offense with George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk headlining the group. Plus, he’s got arguably the greatest offensive mind in the league in Kyle Shanahan calling the shots from the sideline. The situation around Purdy is so friendly that he doesn’t need to do much to be a stud QB to be a reliable fantasy starter – he just needs to make easy throws and let the stars on the 49ers offense shine bright.

However, it’s hard to get too excited about Purdy given his status as a seventh-round rookie who wasn’t expected to play at all. If we remember Nick Mullens in this same Kyle Shanahan system, he started his first game back in 2018 and put up 27 fantasy points in his first career start before ultimately fading thereafter. While this system is friendly for quarterbacks, it can only elevate them for so long. In all likelihood, the clock will strike midnight on Brock Purdy’s Cinderella story, and the only question is if that’ll happen when he’s in your starting lineup.

Zonovan Knight, RB, New York Jets

After accumulating zero fantasy points through the first 11 weeks of the season, Zonovan Knight has hit the double-digit mark in each of the last three weeks. He’s doing so on impressive volume as by logging 14, 15 and 17 rush attempts as well – including every single Jets’ red zone carry over that span. Simply put, Knight is the Jets’ new RB1 and he’s getting the volume fantasy managers salivate over.

The downside with Knight is he’s only averaging a 50% snap share and he’s ceding much of the passing game work to Michael Carter and Ty Johnson. Knight’s rushing volume should provide him with a solid floor over the remainder of the season, but if the Jets struggle to get their ground game going at any point during the fantasy playoffs, it’ll be hard for Knight to offset that in the passing game. 

Zay Jones, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Zay Jones is quietly the WR27 on the year (0.5 PPR), and in two of the last three weeks he’s posted a top 10 finish. Since Jacksonville’s bye (Week 11), Jones is averaging 11 targets per game and pairing that volume with Trevor Lawrence’s improved play has Jones looking like a potential superstar for the fantasy playoffs. 

The downside with Jones is his floor is fairly low. He’s not the clear alpha in Jacksonville, and he’s already logged four games this year with 5 points or less. No players are immune to bad games, but one dud game could be the difference between a win and a loss for your fantasy team when the stakes are highest. Throw in a tough stretch of defenses he’ll square off against over the next three weeks, and expectations for Jones need to be tempered somewhat.

Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE, Tennessee Titans

The Titans may have found a gem in fourth-round rookie Chigoziem Okoknwo in this past draft. The tight end position is notorious for being slow to develop compared to other positions, but Okonkwo is quietly coming onto the scene after posting back-to-back top-10 fantasy finishes. He’s carving out a role for himself in a Titans offense that’s desperately in need of pass catchers as he’s logged 6, 5 and 5 targets in his last three games. More importantly, Okonkwo is making the most of those targets. He’s been explosive with the ball in his hands as he leads all tight ends (filtered for those with at least 10 receptions on the year) in yards per catch (15.2) with many of those yards (8.0) coming after the catch.

So why wouldn’t we be able to trust Okonkwo? Well, first off, the Titans aren’t exactly an offense that’s friendly to pass catchers. The Titans currently rank last in the league in pace of play and rank 28th in pass rate. It’s a low-volume passing attack, and even though Okonkwo has seen a fair target share in recent weeks, he’s only been on the field for 49%, 58% and 33% of snaps over that span. Simply put, Okonkwo needs an explosive play to be fantasy relevant, and it’s hard to bank on a rookie tight end – who’s not even a full-time player – delivering on that promise consistently throughout the playoffs.