Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 4

The Chiefs and Buccaneers will have their game Sunday in Tampa Bay after Hurricane Ian has passed by Florida. But that doesn’t mean Week 4 has dodged its weather concerns. As Ian turns back landward and snakes up the east coast, it will likely bring rain and heavy wind to the Cardinals and Panthers in Charlotte, the Bills and Ravens in Baltimore, the Jaguars and Eagles in Philadelphia and the Bears and Giants in New York.

I’ll discuss those implications plus my other reasons for player optimistic and pessimism in this week’s fantasy football start and sit column for Week 4.

• Players are labeled as starts if I rank them better than the consensus and sits if I rank them worse than the consensus, but consider your specific league contexts to make your start and sit decisions.
• The positional rankings and fantasy point totals rely on half PPR scoring.
• The consensus rankings refer to the FantasyPros expert consensus.
• You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.

Quarterbacks

Start

Tom Brady, Bucs vs. Chiefs (76 degrees and clear)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 9th, +2 versus consensus (11th)

+ Opponent: The Chiefs have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.34 per game in 2022, 10th most in football.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers vs. Patriots (60 degrees and sunny)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 10th, +4 versus consensus (14th)

+ Venue: Aaron Rodgers has averaged 1.8 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons.
+ Opponent: The Patriots have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.35 per game in 2022, ninth most in football.

Matt Ryan, Colts vs. Titans (Dome)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 21st, +3 versus consensus (24th)

+ Efficiency: Matt Ryan has thrown just 3 touchdowns but has 6.10 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that third-highest 3.10-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Titans have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.82 per game in 2022, the most in football.

Sit

Kirk Cousins, Vikings at Saints in London (62 degrees and cloudy)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 11th, -2 versus consensus (9th)

– Venue: Kirk Cousins has averaged 1.5 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons.
– Opponent: The Saints have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.67 per game in 2022, third most in football.

+ Efficiency: Cousins has thrown just 5 touchdowns but has 6.62 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that seventh-highest 1.62-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.

Derek Carr, Raiders vs. Broncos (Dome)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 13th, -1 versus consensus (12th)

+ Efficiency: Derek Carr has thrown just 6 touchdowns but has 8.37 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that fifth-highest 2.36-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.

– Efficiency: Carr ranks second lowest at the position with 1.9 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his passing touchdown rate fall with more balance in the red zone.
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.39 per game in 2022, tied for ninth most in football.

Carson Wentz, Commanders at Cowboys (Dome)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 19th, -1 versus consensus (18th)

– Venue: Carson Wentz has averaged 2.6 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons (split among the Eagles, Colts, and now Commanders).
– Efficiency: Wentz has thrown 7 touchdowns but has just 5.06 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that fourth highest 1.94-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.61 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.

Running Backs

Start

Khalil Herbert, Bears at Giants (58 degrees with high winds and a 30% chance of rain)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 14th, +3 versus consensus (17th)

+ Volume: I am projecting Khalil Herbert for 22.8 carries + targets this week assuming David Montgomery is out, tied for fourth at his position (he averaged 22.0 carries + targets in Weeks 5-8 of 2021 and last week when Montgomery missed time).
+ Volume: High forecasted winds and a 30% chance of rain will likely skew the Bears’ pass/run balance toward the run.

– Efficiency: Herbert has scored 3 touchdowns but has just 2.04 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 0.96-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.

Kareem Hunt, Browns at Falcons (Dome)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 25th, +1 versus consensus (26th)

+ Efficiency: Kareem Hunt has run in just 1 touchdown but had 1.66 expected rushing touchdowns in 2022, and that 0.66-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season (Nick Chubb has outscored Hunt 4 to 2 but has a much smaller lead of 6 vs. 5 carries + targets within 10 yards of the end zone).
+ Opponent: The Falcons have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.30 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.

Rashaad Penny, Seahawks at Lions (Dome)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 26th, +3 versus consensus (29th)

+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 1.01 per game in 2022, the most in football.

Cam Akers, Rams at 49ers (76 degrees and clear)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 34th, +2 versus consensus (36th)

+ Volume: I am projecting Cam Akers for 14.7 carries + targets this week, 29th at his position (he has averaged 15.0 carries + targets vs. 7.5 for Darrell Henderson the last two weeks).

– Opponent: The 49ers have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.41 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.

Travis Etienne, Jaguars at Eagles (57 degrees with high winds and an 80% chance of rain)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 35th, +2 versus consensus (37th)

+ Volume: High forecasted winds and an 80% chance of rain will likely skew the Jaguars’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Eagles have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.41 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.

– Efficiency: Travis Etienne has not scored a touchdown but has 1.10 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.10-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.

Raheem Mostert, Dolphins at Bengals (59 degrees and clear)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 39th, +2 versus consensus (41st)

+ Volume: I am projecting Raheem Mostert for 13.5 carries + targets this week, 33rd at his position (he has averaged 12.0 carries + targets vs. 7.5 for Chase Edmonds the last two weeks).

– Opponent: The Bengals have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.31 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.

Justice Hill, Ravens vs. Bills (53 degrees with high winds and a 91% chance of rain)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 49th, +13 versus consensus (62nd)

+ Volume: I am projecting Justice Hill for 9.3 carries + targets this week, 43rd at his position (he played 28 snaps and saw 6 carries + targets vs. 27 and 9 for J.K. Dobbins in Week 3).
+ Volume: High forecasted winds and a 91% chance of rain will likely skew the Ravens’ pass/run balance toward the run.

Sit

Miles Sanders, Eagles vs. Jaguars (57 degrees with high winds and an 80% chance of rain)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 22nd, -2 versus consensus (20th)

+ Volume: High forecasted winds and an 80% chance of rain will likely skew the Eagles’ pass/run balance toward the run.

– Opponent: The Jaguars have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.44 per game in 2022, third most in football.

Josh Jacobs, Raiders vs. Broncos (Dome)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 27th, -2 versus consensus (25th)

+ Efficiency: Josh Jacobs has not scored a touchdown but has 1.65 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.65-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Efficiency: Jacobs ranks last at his position with -1.78 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his rushing touchdown rate rise the rest of the season with more balance in the red zone.

– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.58 per game in 2022, second most in football.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs at Bucs (76 degrees and clear)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 28th, -1 versus consensus (27th)

– Volume: I am projecting Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 13.1 carries + targets this week, 34th at his position (he has averaged 11.3 carries + targets in 2022).
– Efficiency: Edwards-Helaire has scored 3 touchdowns but has just 2.24 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 0.76 -touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Bucs have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.72 per game in 2022, the most in football.

+ Efficiency: Edwards-Helaire ranks second from last at his position with -1.09 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his rushing touchdown rate rise the rest of the season with more balance in the red zone.

Wide Receivers

Start

Diontae Johnson, Steelers vs. Jets (55 degrees and cloudy)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 19th, +2 versus consensus (21st)

+ Volume: I am projecting Diontae Johnson for 10.8 targets this week, fourth at his position (he has averaged 11.0 targets in 2022).

Brandin Cooks, Texans vs. Chargers (Dome)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 22nd, +2 versus consensus (24th)

+ Volume: I am projecting Brandin Cooks for 8.8 targets this week, eighth at his position (he has averaged 9.7 targets in 2022).
+ Opponent: The Chargers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.53 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.

Garrett Wilson, Jets at Steelers (55 degrees and cloudy)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 31st, +3 versus consensus (34th)

+ Volume: I am projecting Garrett Wilson for 8.1 targets this week, 21st at his position (he has averaged 11.0 targets in 2022).
+ Efficiency: Wilson has caught just 2 touchdowns but has 2.92 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 0.92-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.

Zay Jones, Jaguars at Eagles (57 degrees with high winds and an 80% chance of rain)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 45th, +2 versus consensus (47th)

+ Volume: I am projecting Zay Jones for 7.3 targets this week, 21st at his position (he has averaged 8.0 targets in 2022).

– Volume: High forecasted winds and an 80% chance of rain will likely skew the Jaguars’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: The Eagles have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.39 per game in 2022, tied for ninth most in football.

Richie James, Giants vs. Bears (58 degrees with high winds and a 30% chance of rain)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 62nd, +2 versus consensus (64th)

+ Volume: I am projecting Richie James for 6.0 targets this week, 21st at his position (he has averaged 5.7 targets in 2022 and will likely enjoy an increase in playing time with Sterling Shepard out).

– Volume: High forecasted winds and a 30% chance of rain will likely skew the Jaguars’ pass/run balance toward the run.

Alec Pierce, Colts vs. Titans (Dome)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 73rd, +2 versus consensus (75th)

+ Efficiency: Pierce has not caught a touchdown but has 0.86 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 0.86-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Titans have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.82 per game in 2022, the most in football.

Sit

Marquise Brown, Cardinals at Panthers (63 degrees with high winds and a 91% chance of rain)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 23rd, -6 versus consensus (17th)

– Volume: High forecasted winds and a 91% chance of rain will likely skew the Cardinals’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Venue: Kyler Murray has averaged 3.5 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons.
– Opponent: The Panthers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.59 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.

Gabe Davis, Bills at Ravens (53 degrees with high winds and a 91% chance of rain)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 24th, -6 versus consensus (18th)

– Volume: I am projecting Gabe Davis for 6.7 targets this week, tied for 34th at his position (he has averaged 5.5 targets in 2022).
– Volume: High forecasted winds and a 91% chance of rain will likely skew the Bills’ pass/run balance toward the run.

+ Opponent: The Ravens have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.81 per game in 2022, second most in football.

Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers vs. Rams (76 degrees and clear)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 38th, -3 versus consensus (35th)

– Volume: I am projecting Brandon Aiyuk for 6.3 targets this week, tied for 41st at his position (he has averaged 6.3 targets in 2022).
– Volume: Aiyuk saw just five deep targets of more than 20 air yards in 2021 with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, and only two of those were catchable.

Rashod Bateman, Ravens vs. Bills (53 degrees with high winds and a 91% chance of rain)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 32nd, -4 versus consensus (28th)

– Volume: I am projecting Rashod Bateman for 5.9 targets this week, tied for 48th at his position (he has averaged 5.3 targets in 2022).
– Volume: High forecasted winds and a 91% chance of rain will likely skew the Bills’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Efficiency: Bateman has caught 2 touchdowns but has just 0.05 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that second highest 1.95-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Bills have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.47 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.

Adam Thielen, Vikings at Saints in London (62 degrees and cloudy)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 41st, -1 versus consensus (40th)

– Volume: I am projecting Adam Thielen for 5.8 targets this week, 50th at his position (he has averaged 6.3 targets in 2022).
– Venue: Kirk Cousins has averaged 1.5 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons.
– Opponent: The Saints have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.67 per game in 2022, third most in football.

+ Efficiency: Thielen has caught just 1 touchdown but has 1.55 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 0.55-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.

Jahan Dotson, Commanders at Cowboys (Dome)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 49th, -3 versus consensus (46th)

– Volume: I am projecting Jahan Dotson for 5.2 targets this week, tied for 62nd at his position (he has averaged 6.0 targets in 2022).
– Venue: Carson Wentz has averaged 2.6 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons (split among the Eagles, Colts, and now Commanders).
– Efficiency: Dotson has caught 3 touchdowns but has just 1.10 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that third highest 1.90-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.61 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.

Tight Ends

Start

Tyler Higbee, Rams at 49ers (76 degrees and clear)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 8th, +1 versus consensus (9th)

+ Volume: I am projecting Tyler Higbee for 6.7 targets this week, fifth at his position (he has averaged 8.0 targets in 2022).
+ Efficiency: Higbee has not caught a touchdown but has 1.26 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that second highest 1.26-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.

– Opponent: The 49ers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.70 per game in 2022, second most in football.

Evan Engram, Jaguars at Eagles (57 degrees with high winds and an 80% chance of rain)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 14th, +1 versus consensus (15th)

– Volume: High forecasted winds and an 80% chance of rain will likely skew the Jaguars’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: The Eagles have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.39 per game in 2022, tied for ninth most in football.

+ Opponent: The Eagles allowed 14.2 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2021, tied for the most in football.

Hayden Hurst, Bengals vs. Dolphins (59 degrees and clear)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 17th, +1 versus consensus (18th)

+ Opponent: The Dolphins have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.62 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.

Sit

Dallas Goedert, Eagles vs. Jaguars (57 degrees with high winds and an 80% chance of rain)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 10th, -4 versus consensus (6th)

– Volume: I am projecting Dallas Goedert for 5.2 targets this week, tied for 12th at his position (he has averaged 4.7 targets in 2022).
– Volume: High forecasted winds and an 80% chance of rain will likely skew the Eagles’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Efficiency: Goedert has caught 1 touchdown but has just 0.45 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 0.45-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.

Dawson Knox, Bills at Ravens (53 degrees with high winds and a 91% chance of rain)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 16th, -2 versus consensus (14th)

– Volume: I am projecting Dawson Knox for 4.0 targets this week, 20th at his position (he has averaged 3.7 targets in 2022).
– Volume: High forecasted winds and a 91% chance of rain will likely skew the Bills’ pass/run balance toward the run.

+ Opponent: The Ravens have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.81 per game in 2022, second most in football.
+ Opponent: The Ravens allowed 12.5 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2021, third most in football.

Irv Smith, Vikings at Saints in London (62 degrees and cloudy)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 18th, -2 versus consensus (16th)

– Venue: Kirk Cousins has averaged 1.5 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons.
– Opponent: The Saints have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.67 per game in 2022, third most in football.

Logan Thomas, Commanders at Cowboys (Dome)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 20th, -1 versus consensus (19th)

– Venue: Carson Wentz has averaged 2.6 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons (split among the Eagles, Colts, and now Commanders).
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.61 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.

Mike Gesicki, Dolphins at Bengals (59 degrees and clear)

Week 4 Positional Ranking: 25th, -4 versus consensus (21st)

– Volume: I am projecting Mike Gesicki for 2.3 targets this week, tied for 36th at his position (he has averaged 2.0 targets in 2022).
– Efficiency: Gesicki has caught 1 touchdown but has just 0.44 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 0.44-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Bengals have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.82 per game in 2022, the most in football.