Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tua Tagovailoa shocked the football world with six touchdowns and a comeback win over the Ravens in Week 2. But his Week 3 Bills opponent presents a different defensive test that could hurt his fantasy production. I’ll examine the Dolphins, Bills and every other team with fantasy players whose perceived value is higher or lower than my expectations in this start-and-sit column for Week 3.
- Players are labeled as starts if I rank them better than the consensus and sits if I rank them worse than the consensus, but consider your specific league contexts to make your start and sit decisions.
- The positional rankings and fantasy point totals rely on half-PPR scoring.
- The consensus rankings refer to the FantasyPros expert consensus.
- You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.
Quarterbacks
Start
Russell Wilson, Broncos vs. 49ers (77 degrees and clear)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 10th, +1 versus consensus (11th)
+ Venue: Russell Wilson has averaged 1.4 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons (mostly with the Seahawks).
+ Efficiency: Wilson has thrown just 2 touchdowns but has 6.58 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 4.58-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The 49ers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.30 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars at Chargers (Dome)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 15th, +5 versus consensus (20th)
+ Efficiency: Trevor Lawrence has thrown just 3 touchdowns but has 3.71 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that latter total has him on pace for a 30-touchdown season.
+ Efficiency: Lawrence threw just 12 touchdowns but had 22.0 expected passing touchdowns in 2021, and that position-leading 10.0-touchdown shortfall should regress positively this season.
+ Efficiency: Lawrence ranked sixth lowest at the position with -1.4 net stolen touchdowns in 2021 and will likely see his passing touchdown rate rise with more passing in the red zone.
+ Opponent: The Chargers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.17 per game in 2022, 12th most in football.
Matt Ryan, Colts vs. Chiefs (Dome)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 17th, +6 versus consensus (23rd)
+ Efficiency: Matt Ryan has thrown just 1 touchdown but has 4.76 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that second highest 3.76-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Efficiency: The Colts top two receivers Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce returned to practice Wednesday and are likely to play in Week 3 after missing Week 2.
+ Opponent: The Chiefs have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.42 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
Sit
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins vs. Bills (86 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 16th, -1 versus consensus (15th)
– Efficiency: Tua Tagovailoa has thrown 7 touchdowns but has just 3.81 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that second highest 3.19-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Efficiency: Tagovailoa ranks sixth highest at his position with 0.95 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his passing touchdown rate fall the rest of the season with more balance in the red zone.
– Opponent: The Bills have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.69 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Jared Goff, Lions at Vikings (Dome)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 18th, -2 versus consensus (16th)
– Efficiency: Jared Goff has thrown 6 touchdowns but has just 4.10 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that fifth highest 1.90-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Vikings have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.36 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
Running Backs
Start
Cordarrelle Patterson, Falcons at Seahawks (69 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 18th, +4 versus consensus (22nd)
+ Volume: I am projecting Cordarrelle Patterson for 18.3 carries + targets this week, 13th at his position (he has averaged 19.0 carries + targets the first two weeks).
+ Opponent: The Seahawks have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.60 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Rashaad Penny, Seahawks vs. Falcons (69 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 24th, +6 versus consensus (30th)
+ Opponent: The Falcons have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.53 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Dameon Pierce, Texans at Bears (69 degrees and sunny)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 25th, +2 versus consensus (26th)
+ Opponent: The Bears have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.29 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Raheem Mostert, Dolphins vs. Bills (86 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 38th, +3 versus consensus (41st)
+ Volume: I am projecting Raheem Mostert for 14.2 carries + targets this week, 27th at his position (he played 39 snaps and saw 14 carries + targets vs. 36 and 8 for Chase Edmonds in Week 2).
+ Efficiency: Mostert has an explosive run rate (15-plus yards) of 7.3% since 2019, tied for the highest among running backs with 250 or more carries with Nick Chubb.
+ Efficiency: Mostert ranks fourth from last at his position with -0.90 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his rushing touchdown rate rise the rest of the season with more balance in the red zone.
Sit
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs at Colts (Dome)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 19th, -2 versus consensus (17th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 12.9 carries + targets this week, 35th at his position (he has averaged 11.0 carries + targets the first two weeks).
+ Efficiency: Edwards-Helaire ranks second from last at his position with -1.16 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his rushing touchdown rate rise the rest of the season with more balance in the red zone.
– Efficiency: Edwards-Helaire has scored 2 touchdowns but had just 0.59 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.31-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Colts have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.28 per game in 2022, ninth most in football.
AJ Dillon, Packers at Bucs (86 degrees and sunny)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 22nd, -4 versus consensus (18th)
– Opponent: The Bucs have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.75 per game in 2022, the most in football.
James Robinson, Jaguars at Chargers (Dome)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 26th, -2 versus consensus (24th)
– Efficiency: James Robinson has scored 3 touchdowns but had just 1.11 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 1.89-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Chargers have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.26 per game in 2022, 11th most in football.
Kareem Hunt, Brown vs. Steelers (60 degrees and cloudy with high winds)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 27th, -2 versus consensus (25th)
– Volume: I am projecting Kareem Hunt for 12.3 carries + targets this week, 40th at his position (he has averaged 15.0 carries + targets the first two weeks, but the Browns rank second with 76 team carries and have enjoyed run-positive games scripts with multi-score leads against the Panthers and Jets).
+ Volume: High forecasted winds will likely skew the Browns’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Efficiency: Hunt has scored 2 touchdowns but had just 1.00 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.00-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Steelers have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.28 per game in 2022, ninth most in football.
Jeff Wilson, 49ers at Broncos (77 degrees and clear)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 28th, -2 versus consensus (26th)
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.47 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Damien Harris, Patriots vs. Ravens (66 degrees and cloudy)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 30th, -2 versus consensus (28th)
– Opponent: The Ravens have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.32 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
Wide Receivers
Start
Adam Thielen, Vikings vs. Lions (Dome)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 30th, +3 versus consensus (33rd)
+ Efficiency: Thielen has not caught a touchdown but has just 0.74 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that eighth highest 0.74-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Garrett Wilson, Jets vs. Bengals (68 degrees and cloudy)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 32nd, +3 versus consensus (35th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Garrett Wilson for 8.2 targets this week, tied for 20th at his position (he has averaged 11.0 targets the first two weeks).
+ Efficiency: Wilson has caught just 2 touchdowns but has just 2.87 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022 — the most among wide receivers — and that fifth highest 0.87-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Jakobi Meyers, Patriots vs. Ravens (66 degrees and cloudy)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 40th, +2 versus consensus (42nd)
+ Volume: I am projecting Jakobi Meyers for 8.7 targets this week, tied for 15th at his position (he has averaged 9.5 targets the first two weeks).
+ Opponent: The Ravens have increased expected passing touchdowns by 1.35 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Sterling Shepard, Giants vs. Cowboys (64 degrees and clear)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 45th, +3 versus consensus (48th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Sterling Shepard for 8.0 targets this week, tied for 20th at his position (he has averaged 7.0 targets the first two weeks and 7.5 targets over his last six games, and Kenny Golladay played just two snaps in Week 2).
– Efficiency: Shepard has caught 1 touchdown but has just 0.24 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 0.76-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.57 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Nico Collins, Texans at Bears (69 degrees and sunny)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 56th, +5 versus consensus (61st)
+ Volume: I am projecting Nico Collins for 6.7 targets this week, tied for 37th at his position (he has averaged 6.0 targets the first two weeks).
Greg Dortch, Cardinals vs. Rams (Dome)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 57th, +9 versus consensus (66th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Greg Dortch for 5.5 targets this week, tied for 55th at his position (he has averaged 6.5 targets the first two weeks).
+ Volume: Rondale Moore is expected to miss several more weeks.
Sit
Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers at Broncos (77 degrees and clear)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 34th, -5 versus consensus (29th)
– Volume: I am projecting Brandon Aiyuk for 6.6 targets this week, 39th at his position (he has averaged 5.5 targets the first two weeks).
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.17 per game in 2022, 12th most in football.
DJ Moore, Panthers vs. Saints (79 degrees and sunny)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 24th, -4 versus consensus (20th)
– Opponent: The Saints have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.77 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Rashod Bateman, Ravens at Patriots (66 degrees and cloudy)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 26th, -3 versus consensus (23rd)
– Volume: I am projecting Rashod Bateman for 6.5 targets this week, 40th at his position (he has averaged 6.0 targets the first two weeks).
– Efficiency: Bateman has caught 2 touchdowns but has just 0.32 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that sixth highest 1.68-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Gabe Davis, Bills at Dolphins (86 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 23rd, -4 versus consensus (19th)
– Volume: I am projecting Gabe Davis for 7.2 targets this week, 32nd at his position (he saw 5 targets in Week 1).
– Efficiency: Davis caught a touchdown but had just 0.26 expected receiving touchdowns in Week 1, and that 0.74-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Dolphins have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.33 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Michael Thomas, Saints at Panthers (79 degrees and sunny)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 21st, -5 versus consensus (16th)
– Volume: I am projecting Michael Thomas for 7.4 targets this week, tied for 27th at his position (he has averaged 8.5 targets the first two weeks but has enjoyed pass-positive games scripts with multi-score deficits against the Falcons and Bucs).
– Efficiency: Thomas has caught 3 touchdowns but has just 1.25 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that fourth highest 1.75-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Panthers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.76 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Jahan Dotson, Commanders vs. Eagles (76 degrees and cloudy)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 44th, -4 versus consensus (40th)
– Volume: I am projecting Jahan Dotson for 4.3 targets this week, tied for 70th at his position (he has averaged 5.0 targets the first two weeks).
– Efficiency: Dotson has caught 3 touchdowns but has just 1.21 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that third highest 1.79-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Tight Ends
Start
Tyler Higbee, Rams at Cardinals (Dome)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 7th, +1 versus consensus (8th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Tyler Higbee for 7.4 targets this week, sixth at his position (he has averaged 10.0 targets the first two weeks).
+ Efficiency: Higbee has not caught a touchdown but has 1.20 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 1.20-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.71 per game in 2022, second most in football (compared to his Week 1 Bills opponent that has decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.69 per game in 2022, fifth most in football).
– Opponent: The Cardinals allowed 5.9 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2021, second fewest in football.
Evan Engram, Jaguars at Chargers (Dome)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 13th, +1 versus consensus (14th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Evan Engram for 5.2 targets this week, 12th at his position (he has averaged 6.0 targets the first two weeks).
+ Opponent: The Chargers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.17 per game in 2022, 12th most in football.
+ Opponent: The Chargers allowed 14.2 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2021, tied for the most in football.
Sit
Dallas Goedert, Eagles vs. Commanders (76 degrees and cloudy)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 10th, -5 versus consensus (5th)
– Volume: I am projecting Dallas Goedert for 5.6 targets this week, 11th at his position (he has averaged 5.0 targets the first two weeks).
+ Opponent: The Commanders have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.21 per game in 2022, 11th most in football.
Robert Tonyan, Packers at Bucs (86 degrees and sunny)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 17th, -1 versus consensus (16th)
– Opponent: The Bucs have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.98 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Mike Gesicki, Dolphins vs. Bills (86 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 3 Positional Ranking: 22nd, -2 versus consensus (20th)
– Volume: I am projecting Mike Gesicki for 3.1 targets this week, 27th at his position (he has averaged 2.5 targets the first two weeks).
– Efficiency: Gesicki has caught 1 touchdown but has just 0.43 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that seventh highest 0.57-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Bills have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.69 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
– Opponent: The Bills allowed 7.9 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2021, third fewest in football.
