Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 1

The AFC South may be the least compelling division in real football, but it outkicks its coverage for fantasy football interest in Week 1. My anticipation of a Trevor Lawrence breakout makes him and several of his receiving teammates excellent options in a plus passing matchup in Washington on Sunday. Texans running back Dameon Pierce is holding the torch for rookie skill players, most of whom start the season mired in unappealing timeshares for fantasy consideration.

Here and every week all NFL season long, I’ll be looking at some of the key fantasy names of the week and identifying the main starts and sits. Start your lineup-building process here.

Players are labeled as starts if I rank them better than the consensus and sits if I rank them worse than the consensus, but consider your specific league contexts to make your start and sit decisions.
The positional rankings and fantasy point totals rely on half-PPR scoring.
The consensus rankings refer to the FantasyPros expert consensus.
You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.

Quarterback Starts

Dak Prescott, Cowboys vs. Bucs

Week 1 Positional Ranking: 8th, +4 vs. consensus (12th)

+ Venue: Prescott has averaged 5.9 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two seasons.
+ Efficiency: Dak Prescott ran in just 1 touchdown vs. 3.2 expected rushing touchdowns (opportunity-adjusted touchdowns) in 2021, and that position-leading 2.2-touchdown shortfall should regress positively this season with better ankle health.
– Opponent: The Bucs reduced expected passing touchdowns by 0.13 per game in 2021, ninth most in football.

Jameis Winston, Saints at Falcons

Week 1 Positional Ranking: 15th, +1 vs. consensus (16th)

+ Volume: I am projecting Jameis Winston to throw 31.5 pass attempts this week, up from his unsustainably low average of 23.5 pass attempts from his last six games.
+ Opponent: The Falcons boosted expected passing touchdowns by 0.30 per game in 2021, second most in football.

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars at Commanders

Week 1 Positional Ranking: 16th, +1 vs. consensus (17th)

+ Efficiency: Trevor Lawrence threw just 12 touchdowns vs. 22.0 expected passing touchdowns in 2021, and that position-leading 10.0-touchdown shortfall should regress positively this season.
+ Efficiency: Lawrence ranked sixth lowest at the position with -1.4 net stolen touchdowns in 2021 and will likely see his passing touchdown rate rise with more passing in the red zone.
+ Opponent: The Commanders boosted expected passing touchdowns by 0.41 per game in 2021, the most in football.

Justin Fields, Bears vs. 49ers

Week 1 Positional Ranking: 18th, +1 vs. consensus (19th)

+ Volume: I am projecting Justin Fields to throw 29.7 pass attempts this week after his average attempts increased from 21.0 in his first four healthy games in 2021 to 32.0 in his final five healthy games.

Quarterback Sits

Tom Brady, Bucs at Cowboys

Week 1 Positional Ranking: 10th, -2 vs. consensus (8th)

– Efficiency: Tom Brady will likely face more pressure this week after the Bucs lost offensive linemen Ali Marpet to retirement, Alex Cappa to free agency and Ryan Jensen and Aaron Stinnie to preseason injuries.
– Opponent: The Cowboys reduced expected passing touchdowns by 0.23 per game in 2021, fifth most in football.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers at Vikings

Week 1 Positional Ranking: 12th, -1 vs. consensus (11th)

– Efficiency: Aaron Rodgers ranked third at the position with 4.4 net stolen touchdowns in 2021 and will likely see his passing touchdown rate fall with better offensive balance in the red zone without Davante Adams.

Matthew Stafford, Rams vs. Bills

Week 1 Positional Ranking: 17th, -3 vs. consensus (14th)

+ Venue: Matthew Stafford has averaged 1.5 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two seasons (split between the Lions and Rams but both with home dome stadiums).
– Efficiency: Stafford led the position with 5.6 net stolen touchdowns in 2021 and will likely see his passing touchdown rate fall with better offensive balance in the red zone with Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson healthy.
– Opponent: The Bills reduced expected passing touchdowns by 0.64 per game in 2021, the most in football.

Running Back Starts

Dameon Pierce, Texans vs. Colts

Week 1 Positional Ranking: 23rd, +5 vs. consensus (28th)

+ Volume: I am projecting Dameon Pierce for 17.7 carries + targets this week as the No. 1 Texans RB with little on the depth chart behind him, tied for 15th most at the position with Ezekiel Elliott.
– Opponent: The Colts reduced expected rushing touchdowns by 0.16 per game in 2021, fourth most in football.

Miles Sanders, Eagles at Lions

Week 1 Positional Ranking: 29th, +1 vs. consensus (30th)

+ Efficiency: Miles Sanders did not run in a touchdown but had 4.0 expected rushing touchdowns in 2021, and that position-leading 4.0-touchdown shortfall should regress positively this season.
+ Opponent: The Lions boosted expected rushing touchdowns by 0.21 per game in 2021, sixth most in football.

Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots at Dolphins

Week 1 Positional Ranking: 30th, +1 vs. consensus (31st)

+ Volume: I am projecting Rhamondre Stevenson for 14.7 carries + targets this week assuming Ty Montgomery cannot play, 26th most at the position.
+ Efficiency: Stevenson bested his teammate Damien Harris with 3.4 vs. 2.4 yards after contact per attempt in 2021 and could see more red-zone carries because of it.

Michael Carter, Jets vs. Ravens

Week 1 Positional Ranking: 31st, +6 vs. consensus (37th)

+ Volume: I am projecting Michael Carter for 14.2 carries + targets this week — in line with his 12.9 average from his last six games — based on reports that he enters the season as the No. 1 Jets RB ahead of rookie Breece Hall, 30th most at the position.

Raheem Mostert, Dolphins vs. Patriots

Week 1 Positional Ranking: 38th, +4 vs. consensus (42nd)

+ Volume: I am projecting Raheem Mostert for 11.6 carries + targets this week based on my expectation that the Dolphins will run more in 2022 with a Shanahan-influenced offensive scheme, tied for 37th most at the position.

Jerick McKinnon, Chiefs at Cardinals

Week 1 Positional Ranking: 51st, +10 vs. consensus (61st)

+ Volume: I am projecting Jerick McKinnon for 8.1 carries + targets this week (47th at the position) based on my expectation that he will be the primary Chiefs receiving back.

Running Back Sits

Damien Harris, Patriots at Dolphins

Week 1 Positional Ranking: 27th, -1 vs. consensus (26th)

– Efficiency: Damien Harris ran in 15 touchdowns in 2021 but had just 10.0 expected rushing touchdowns, and that position-leading 5.0-touchdown surplus should regress negatively this season.
– Efficiency: Harris ranked first at his position with 2.7 net stolen touchdowns in 2021 and will likely see his rushing touchdown rate fall with more Mac Jones passing in the red zone.

Breece Hall, Jets vs. Ravens

Week 1 Positional Ranking: 35th, -6 vs. consensus (29th)

– Volume: I am projecting Breece Hall for 12.0 carries + targets this week based on reports that he enters the season as the No. 2 Jets RB behind Michael Carter, 35th most at his position.

Wide Receiver Starts

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions vs. Eagles

Week 1 Positional Ranking: 24th, +5 vs. consensus (29th)

+ Volume: I am projecting Amon-Ra St. Brown for 8.1 targets this week with Jameson Williams on the NFI list, 18th most at his position.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chiefs at Cardinals

Week 1 Positional Ranking: 27th, +3 vs. consensus (30th)

+ Volume: I am projecting JuJu Smith-Schuster for 7.6 targets this week based on my expectation that he will have less competition for targets as the Chiefs’ primary slot receiver, tied for 25th most at his position.

Christian Kirk, Jaguars at Commanders

Week 1 Positional Ranking: 33rd, +1 vs. consensus (34th)

+ Volume: I am projecting Christian Kirk for 8.0 targets this week, tied for 19th at his position.
+ Opponent: The Commanders boosted expected passing touchdowns by 0.41 per game in 2021, the most in football.

Chase Claypool, Steelers at Bengals

Week 1 Positional Ranking: 43rd, +3 vs. consensus (46th)

+ Efficiency: Chase Claypool caught just 2 touchdowns but had 5.0 expected receiving touchdowns in 2021, and that top five 3.0-touchdown shortfall at his position should regress positively this season.

Julio Jones, Bucs at Cowboys

Week 1 Positional Ranking: 45th, +5 vs. consensus (50th)

+ Volume: I am projecting Julio Jones for 6.9 targets this week with Chris Godwin and Russell Gage questionable with injuries, tied for 37th most at his position.
– Opponent: The Cowboys reduced expected passing touchdowns by 0.23 per game in 2021, fifth most in football.

Marvin Jones, Jaguars at Commanders

Week 1 Positional Ranking: 52nd, +10 vs. consensus (62nd)

+ Volume: I am projecting Marvin Jones for 6.8 targets this week — in line with his 6.8 average from his last six games — tied for 41st at his position.
+ Efficiency: Jones caught just 4 touchdowns but had 7.6 expected receiving touchdowns in 2021, and that position-leading 3.6-touchdown shortfall should regress positively this season.
+ Opponent: The Commanders boosted expected passing touchdowns by 0.41 per game in 2021, the most in football.

Nico Collins, Texans vs. Colts

Week 1 Positional Ranking: 53rd, +5 vs. consensus (58th)

+ Volume: I am projecting Nico Collins for 6.6 targets this week, tied for 45th most at his position.
+ Opponent: The Colts boosted expected passing touchdowns by 0.22 per game in 2021, sixth in football.
– Opponent: Collins will likely see coverage from Stephon Gilmore, who limited his covered receivers to just 0.13 targets per route in 2021.

Wide Receiver Sits

Gabe Davis, Bills at Rams

Week 1 Positional Ranking: 32nd, -8 vs. consensus (24th)

– Volume: I am projecting Gabe Davis for 6.1 targets this week based on my expectation of a more distributed Bills target share with slot receiver Isaiah McKenzie, 51st most at his position.
– Opponent: The Rams reduced expected passing touchdowns by 0.23 per game in 2021, fifth most in football.

Amari Cooper, Browns at Panthers

Week 1 Positional Ranking: 34th, -1 vs. consensus (33rd)

– Volume: I am projecting Amari Cooper for 6.8 targets this week with the run-oriented Browns, down from his average of 7.8 with the Cowboys last season and tied for 41st most at his position.
– Opponent: The Panthers reduced expected passing touchdowns by 0.29 per game in 2021, third most in football.

Tyler Lockett, Seahawks vs. Broncos

Week 1 Positional Ranking: 44th, -5 vs. consensus (39th)

– Efficiency: Tyler Lockett caught 8 touchdowns but had just 4.4 expected receiving touchdowns in 2021, and that top six 3.6-touchdown surplus at his position should regress negatively without Russell Wilson at quarterback this season.

Tight End Starts

Cole Kmet, Bears vs. 49ers

Week 1 Positional Ranking: 11th, +1 vs. consensus (12th)

+ Efficiency: Cole Kmet did not catch a touchdown but had 3.9 expected touchdowns in 2021, and that top two 3.9-touchdown shortfall at his position should regress positively this season with Jimmy Graham no longer with the team.

Evan Engram, Jaguars at Commanders

Week 1 Positional Ranking: 14th, +5 vs. consensus (19th)

+ Volume: I am projecting Evan Engram for 5.6 targets this week, 10th most at his position.
+ Opponent: The Commanders boosted expected passing touchdowns by 0.41 per game in 2021, the most in football.

Tight End Sits

Albert Okwuegbunam, Broncos at Seahawks