Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NFL draft is just a day away, and basically from the moment it starts the fantasy community will be ready to overreact. It’s not uncommon for fantasy managers to drastically overcorrect some of their fantasy rankings as a result of the draft, and this behavior can create opportunities for the savvy fantasy manager who’s prepared for any outcome.
In this piece, I’ve discussed what the fantasy impact would be if all the picks in Jeff Ratcliffe’s final mock draft came to fruition. Jeff’s the best in the business, and using his predictions to help plan some of your moves in advance of the draft would allow you to act swiftly once the picks are announced in Kansas City, thus giving you a head start over your competition.
Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
The Panthers nabbing their franchise quarterback here makes a lot of sense from a football perspective, but I’m not convinced it’ll be great for fantasy right out of the gates. The group of skill position players in Carolina is one of the worst in the league, and Bryce Young will be stepping into a situation where it’s tough to thrive right away. The one bright spot here for fantasy would be Miles Sanders. I’d imagine Carolina leans heavily on the ground game as they allow Young to get up to speed at a comfortable pace, which should imply good volume for Sanders.
Indianapolis Colts: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
When comparing Will Levis to Gardner Minshew, the Colts’ skill position players are definitely getting an upgrade. Levis likely isn’t a real needle-mover for the secondary pass-catchers in Indy, but a high investment in a rookie QB with experience running an NFL offense would boost my confidence in Michael Pittman, and even Jonathan Taylor. The Colts offense likely won’t be great in 2023, but there are enough weapons for Levis to work with, and he should be able to do enough to at least maintain the fantasy value of the rest of the Colts.
Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Being able to trade down and still nab the most accurate passer in the draft would be great news for the Texans – especially their pass-catchers. None of these guys are ranked highly right now, but C.J. Stroud has to throw the ball to someone in 2023, and he’s proven capable of doing so with pinpoint accuracy. If this landing spot comes to fruition, I’ll be taking a few late-round dart throws on Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz in hopes that they provide some low-cost production.
Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
And here comes the big one. The most obvious thing drafting Bijan Robinson does for the Falcons is it crushes Tyler Allgeier’s fantasy stock. In all likelihood, this move isn’t great for Drake London and Kyle Pitts either. Falcons Head Coach Arthur Smith loves running the football, and it’s meant low volume for all of the pass-catchers in Atlanta. Drafting Robinson would only encourage Smith to lean more on the ground game, which would spell bad news for Desmond Ridder and anyone catching passes from him in 2023.
Tennessee Titans: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
While this pick would be a ton of fun for the Tennessee offense, it’s not great news for their skill-position players. Tennessee was one of the lowest volume passing offenses in the NFL last year, and drafting Anthony Richardson means that volume will stay that way. On top of that, Richardson will surely steal a few carries out of the backfield, which would muddy up everyone in Tennessee’s volume. You’re still drafting Derrick Henry if he’s around come the start of the season, but outside of that, the Titans’ skill-position players would be a group to avoid due to a lack of volume (and talent).
New England Patriots: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
The draft’s top receiver going to New England may feel gross initially, but if there’s one coaching staff that knows how to maximize the slot position, it has to be Bill Belichick and company. Getting a receiver of this caliber on the roster would give a noticeable boost to Mac Jones’ fantasy value. He wouldn’t be a QB1 by any stretch of the imagination, but he would become a much more intriguing option in 2QB/Superflex leagues. As for the other players in New England’s offense, drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba would quickly dump cold water on any hype surrounding JuJu Smith-Schuster. The two play very similar roles in an offense, and I’d bet on the talent of the rookie winning out for fantasy purposes.
Minnesota Vikings: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
A great pick for Kirk Cousins and a Vikings offense desperately in need of another playmaker. Jordan Addison would slot in well in Minnesota, and his presence would provide a significant bump to Cousins (who’s forever an underrated fantasy asset). On the flip side, drafting a first-round receiver would vanquish the fantasy value of any receivers not named Justin Jefferson. The hopes of K.J. Osborn becoming a thing would disappear, but the player whose value may suffer the most as a result of this pick would be T.J. Hockenson. The tight end was a target hog as the No. 2 to Jefferson in the latter portion of last season, and he’d be the most likely candidate to surrender some market share to Addison (or any rookie pass-catcher for that matter).
New York Giants: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
Another situation where the primary beneficiary of a draft pick is the team’s quarterback. In his first year with Brian Daboll, Daniel Jones sneakily finished the season as a QB1. Further investing in Jones’ growth is both a wise move for the Giants and some welcome news for his fantasy managers. Zay Flowers would have an opportunity to step into a WR1 role right away in New York’s offense, which would give him a great opportunity to make an immediate fantasy impact. He would, however, remain the No. 2 option overall in the passing game behind Darren Waller, who may benefit from having another competent pass-catcher to help elevate the entire offense.
Dallas Cowboys: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
This would be a fun one. The Cowboys haven’t invested a first-round pick on an offensive weapon since CeeDee Lamb back in 2020. Michael Mayer is a dominant player who can provide a boost to both Dallas’ ground game and passing attack by helping balance out the offense. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him rank third on the team in targets as early as his rookie season, and if he does, he could be the rare rookie tight end who provides fantasy value right out of the gates. Overall, I don’t think Mayer would significantly impact the fantasy value of many of the other Cowboys. Instead, I think this would be a situation where a rising tide lifts all boats, and Mayer could help improve the offense as a whole, thus having a positive impact on Lamb, Dak Prescott and Tony Pollard alike.
Cincinnati Bengals: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Much like with Dallas drafting a tight end, the selection of Dalton Kincaid by the Bengals would be a bump for the passing attack as a whole. Joe Burrow would get a great target to attack the middle of the field, while Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins could continue dominating on the outside. The main knock here would be on Tyler Boyd, who suddenly becomes No. 4 in the pecking order, and Irv Smith, whose status as a fantasy sleeper somehow still seems to be alive. As long as Burrow is in town, the Bengals are going to be a pass-happy offense, and this could be one of the rare situations where the offense is so good that you’d be happy to roster the quarterback, his top two receivers and his tight end.
Philadelphia Eagles: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
Well well well… the Eagles are leaving the first round with a running back after all. The selection of Jahmyr Gibbs would tank the value of Kenneth Gainwell, as Gibbs would immediately take his role in the offense. I don’t think this would knock Rashaad Penny’s value a ton, as I think he and Gibbs could complement each other well in this high-powered rushing attack. In all likelihood, the sneaky biggest value change here could be to Jalen Hurts. Investing this highly in a running back – right after giving Hurts a massive contract – could be a sign that the Eagles want to reduce Hurts’ rush attempts, therefore limiting his fantasy upside a bit moving forward.
Kansas City Chiefs: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
And here it is. The classic fantasy draft bump for whichever player gets taken by the Chiefs. If the Chiefs draft Quentin Johnston, his fantasy value quickly skyrockets and basically sets his floor at WR2 in this year’s class. It’s hard to imagine Patrick Mahomes’ stock can get any higher here, and the only real impact Johnston would have would be muddying up the WR room a little further. Between Johnston, Travis Kelce, Kadarius Toney and last year’s highly drafted rookie Skyy Moore, someone’s going to be the odd man out in this Chiefs offense (and I wouldn’t bank on it being Kelce). This selection would cause the value of Toney and Moore to trend downward, and if you’re a fantasy manager who likes some risk, buying the dip on one of those two players could be a savvy low-cost, high-upside move.
