Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
(As fantasy football dives headlong into draft season, some players warrant a little extra attention. All August, Dom Cintorino and Adam Pfeifer will do deep dives into some of the notable names. Follow along with our player profiles series. Today’s profile: Kenny Golladay)
Fantasy football value 2021 – Kenny Golladay
This past offseason, the New York Giants made Kenny Golladay the seventh-highest-paid wide receiver in the NFL. Of course, as the years go on, the numbers are going to increase. Golladay was the hottest wide receiver name to hit the market in 2021, and his patience paid off. The former Lions receiver played in just five games last season. He dealt with a hamstring injury early on, forcing him to miss the first two games of the year. Golladay lasted until just Week 8, when a hip injury held him out for a remainder of the season. In the two years prior, Golladay only missed a total of one game. A video surfaced of Golladay grabbing the back of his leg this past Tuesday in a 7-on-7 drill. It’ll be important to monitor his status leading up to the season, but as it stands right now, we should expect him to be healthy heading into Week 1.
Off a strong 2019 campaign, Golladay was primed for another big season in 2020, ranked inside the top 10 wide receivers. In half-point PPR scoring, Golladay finished the 2019 season as the WR6. He was the only wide receiver to score over 200 fantasy points on fewer than 70 receptions (65). Golladay led all receivers with 11 touchdowns on the season and was sixth in receiving yards with 1,190. Having so many yards on just 65 receptions put him atop the league in YPC (18.3) of all receivers that saw over 100 targets. All season long Golladay proved that he can be a WR1 in the NFL. The Lions kept him on the field often, as he played just under 950 snaps on the season. This was the seventh most by any wide receiver.
A fresh start might be just what Golladay needed to return to the dominant receiver we saw flashes of early on. He steps into a Giants offense in a spot where he has the upper hand to lead the team in targets. While it’s a fairly crowded wide receiver room, Golladay stands out from the rest. The duo of Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton will both return, likely in a lesser role than they have become accustomed to. The two combined for 116 receptions, 1,407 yards and 6 touchdowns in a total of 28 games last year. Neither wide receiver was able to crack the top 50 in terms of fantasy points scored at the position. The Giants also spent the 20th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft to bring in Florida WR Kadarius Toney. The Giants did everything in their power to address what they saw as a weakness at wide receiver.
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There’s not a whole lot to break down in terms of advanced receiving stats from Golladay’s shortened 2020 season. However, if you play with the sliders at the top, you can see how he matched up with the rest of the league if you set a minimum of 30 targets. In just five games of action, he ranked ninth in both yards per target (10.56), and yards per reception (16.9). Both of these numbers led to Golladay’s aDOT of 14.0 yards. This led to two 100-yard games on the season, both coming in his last two full games prior to his Week 8 injury.
FTN Fantasy’s 2021 projections have Kenny Golladay slated as the only Giants wide receiver to see over 100 targets (111). Shepard is next in line with 91, followed by Toney (67) and Slayton (56). If Shepard did get to this 91-target mark, it would be the second highest total of his career. The below projection for Golladay is similar to what we saw back in 2019 — a high volume of targets turning into just 65 receptions. The low reception total leaves Golladay as the WR28 in full PPR scoring. When you adjust the filter in the projections to standard scoring, Golladay sees a slight boost moving inside the top 25. Considering where he stood in some of the advanced receiving stats, these projections are spot on. Golladay is going to score a majority of his points on the long ball, by racking up yards and touchdowns. While he might be a frustrating player from week to week, he does have the upside to win you the week at any given time.
Fantasy football ADP stock watch – Kenny Golladay
There really isn’t a whole lot of love for Kenny Golladay heading into the 2021 season. FTN Fantasy currently has him going as the WR24 with an ADP of 69.21. This ADP has remained steady over the course of the past few months. His final June ADP was 69.35 and this moved to just 69.23 for July. Clearly nothing substantial, but August could be the month where we really see his stock fall. If an injury does in fact hold him out of part of the preseason, fantasy football managers will have questions, and rightfully so. Already a player with an injury history does him no favors. Especially if he stays in the range of players like Brandon Aiyuk (73.09), and Ja’Marr Chase (75.46). Remember, this was a wide receiver who was being drafted as the WR7 just a year ago (per FantasyPros). He left a bad taste in the mouths of many managers who spent an early third-round pick on him. Golladay has the potential to see a significant dropoff in terms of ADP in the next month.
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NFL fantasy football ranking – Kenny Golladay
(Check out Jeff Ratcliffe’s top 100 0.5 PPR rankings.)
Across the board, Kenny Golladay’s ranking on FTN Fantasy is all over the place. In the PPR rankings, Golladay is ranked as high as 17th, and as low at 35th. A gap of roughly 20 spots is a sizable one for the Giants’ No. 1 receiver. There are clearly questions surrounding Golladay coming off an injury-plagued 2020 season, but he seems to be locked into a nice role in this Giants’ offense. If we do see this ranking fall, Golladay should still remain ranked inside the top-30 wide receivers.
