Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Fantasy football sleepers aren’t what they used to be. Fantasy players in 2021 are significantly more informed than they were 20 years ago. So we don’t have a lot of draftable players who only a select few in our leagues will know about on draft day. However, we can still take advantage of the common fantasy mindset of “What have you done for me lately?”
How often have you heard someone in your leagues say, “I’m not drafting that guy again” after said player is coming off a down year? It happens all of the time. And in some instances, yes, we shouldn’t draft that player. If the player is noticeably declining, it’s a hard pass. But oftentimes, the player had a down year or was hurt. In these cases, we can take advantage of that recency bias mindset and scoop value out of players poised to bounce back after the hype. Here are some of my top candidates to be this year’s post-hype sleepers.
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Fantasy football sleepers 2021
Here is a look at some of my favorite post-hype sleepers in fantasy football for 2021.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is an early-round fantasy football value
(Nelson Sousa identifies Edwards-Helaire as one of his breakout RB candidates of 2021.)
The hype train was out of control for Clyde Edwards-Helaire as we entered fantasy football draft season last year. The Chiefs back was likely a mid-first round pick in your leagues, and he ended up finishing a disappointing 22nd among running backs in fantasy scoring. However, a closer look shows that he was in fact an RB1 over the first 11 weeks of the season, ranking 11th during that span. Fast forward to this season, and Edwards-Helaire has minimal competition for touches on the Kansas City depth chart. He also had a crucial full offseason with the team. Of course, unlike last year, you don’t have to pay a first-round pick for Edwards-Helaire. You’ll likely be able to scoop him up in the third round.
(Check out Jeff Ratcliffe’s top 100 0.5 PPR rankings.)
Leonard Fournette could pay off his ADP in fantasy football
(Jeff Ratcliffe highlights the Tampa Bay backfield as one of the RB battles to watch in preseason.)
The legend of Lombardi Lenny was born just under a year ago, and we can’t forget what Leonard Fournette was able to do for the Bucs in last year’s postseason. Not only did he play well, but Fournette also averaged a hefty 20.5 touches per game in the Bucs’ four postseason contests. Of course, that performance came on the heels of an ugly regular season where Tampa coach Bruce Arians even told Fournette that he needed to figure out if he still wanted to be on the team. The Ronald Jones truthers don’t want to hear this, but we do have to seriously consider the possibility that Fournette’s role as the lead back continues into 2021. While it’s unreasonable to expect 20-plus touches per game, Fournette as the lead would pay some major dividends at his current ADP in the mid-eighth round.
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D.J. Chark primed for fantasy football rebound
(Eliot Crist uses air yards to identify why Chark is a best ball target.)
Following a breakout year in 2019, D.J. Chark backslid last season. To be fair, it wasn’t just him. Almost the entire Jacksonville offense sputtered, ultimately resulting in a regime change and the No. 1 overall pick. Timing is everything in life, and the Jags couldn’t have timed their terrible season any better, as their utter mediocrity landed them a generational talent in Trevor Lawrence. With Lawrence under center, Chark now has a capable and competent quarterback throwing him the ball, which should instantly jog his fantasy value back to life. Better yet, we’ve seen Lawrence throw to a wideout with a similar profile to Chark at the college level in Tee Higgins. Lawrence should have no problem tapping into Chark’s upside. Chark is still very much a boom-or-bust option, but his high weekly ceiling is worth a look in the WR3 range.
Odell Beckham set for fantasy football stardom?
(Matt Jones draws up a scenario where Beckham could be a big bounceback in 2021.)
I know. I know. He’s a player many fantasy folks love to hate, but hear me out. While Odell Beckham’s fantasy market has cooled off significantly, we shouldn’t necessarily judge him on what we’ve seen in Cleveland so far. Beckham’s numbers weren’t great in 2019, but we can’t discount the tire fire that was the Freddie Kitchens regime. And last year, he didn’t get off to a good start, but the Browns really started clicking under coach Kevin Stefanski after Beckham’s injury. Beckham shouldn’t be viewed as anything more than a WR3 in fantasy drafts, but he could offer value if the fantasy masses continue to avoid him.
Will Fuller a middle-round fantasy target in 2021?
(Matthew Freedman identifies Fuller as one of his upside receivers to target.)
At times, Will Fuller can be utterly dominant on the football field. We’ve seen that over the last three years with a healthy eight top-10 weekly fantasy finishes. But what we’ve also seen is a player who seemingly can’t stay healthy. Add the fact that he was suspended at the end of last season and will miss Week 1 of this year, and we have plenty of volatility. At the same time, Fuller does slide into a very interesting Miami offense where he’s the favorite to serve as Tua Tagovailoa’s top receiving target. Given his massive overall ceiling, the risk is more than worth the reward to target Fuller as your fourth wideout in 2021 fantasy drafts.
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Henry Ruggs has late-round appeal in fantasy
Henry Ruggs was the first wideout selected in last year’s draft, but 2020 was a forgettable campaign. On the year, he saw just over three targets per game, catching just two balls per contest. To be fair, he did average a healthy 17.4 yards per grab, but he simply wasn’t a fantasy factor. The good news is that everything out of Vegas suggests Jon Gruden is hellbent on proving the naysayers wrong and plans on feeding Ruggs the ball this season. Darren Waller will remain the top target in the Raiders’ offense, but Ruggs has a good shot at being Derek Carr’s second option. Given his massive athletic upside, Ruggs offers plenty of appeal as a late-round target.
Tyler Higbee has strong fantasy ceiling
(Daniel Kelley envisions a scenario where Gerald Everett’s departure makes Tyler Higbee a TE1.)
Following an electric finish to the 2019 season, Tyler Higbee was unable to keep the momentum heading into last year and managed just two top-10 weekly fantasy finishes. But things are looking up for the 28-year-old tight end after the Rams traded for Matthew Stafford in the offseason. Stafford is a sizable upgrade at quarterback and is coming off a 2020 season where he helped propel T.J. Hockenson to a breakout year. Higbee will also benefit from no longer having to compete with Gerald Everett for targets. While he’s far from a lock to put up solid fantasy numbers, Higbee offers a healthy fantasy ceiling and is a good target if you miss out on the top 10 tight ends this year.
Blake Jarwin back to fantasy football relevance
(Tyler Loechner picks Jarwin as one of his breakout TE candidates.)
Last year was supposed to be Blake Jarwin’s breakout season, but instead we saw him get hurt in Week 1 and Dalton Schultz proceeded to put up 63 catches for the Cowboys. With Jarwin back and healthy, he figures to slide back in front of Schultz in the pecking order, but Schultz will still be in the mix in the passing game. His presence certainly could put a bit of a cap on Jarwin’s upside, as do all of the other mouths to feed in the Dallas passing game. At the same time, Jarwin’s athleticism in this souped-up offense is appealing enough to throw a late-round dart at Jarwin.
