Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Data plays a massive role in fantasy football. Especially for massive dorks like me who analyze this silly game every single day. And with all of the incredible data we have available at FTN Fantasy, it makes sense to utilize that information to help with fantasy football decisions.
So every Friday, I’ll run through some of my favorite stats for the week, helping you identify some of the best matchups in fantasy football. Be sure to check out the incredible FTN Fantasy StatsHub for a deep dive of all of our in-depth analytics.
Numbers to Know for Fantasy Football Week 7
Garrett Wilson Had 3 Targets with the Jets in Pre-Snap Motion in Week 6
The Jets made some serious changes ahead of their Week 6 matchup with the Bills, moving on from their head coach and offensive coordinator. Todd Downing called plays, and the Jets offense definitely looked better, benefiting Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. Wilson went over 100 yards and a touchdown, seeing more easy looks. There was also an uptick in motion, as Wilson saw three targets with the Jets in pre-snap motion during the game. He saw just two such targets through Week 5 in total, as the Jets used pre-snap motion over 70% of the time, a massive jump from their regular season average. The addition of Davante Adams is sure to take targets away from Wilson, but the overall offense might just simply be better.
6.4% of Terry McLaurin’s Targets Have Been Behind the Line of Scrimmage Since Week 3
During the first two weeks of the season, the Commanders had a horizontal-based passing attack. Jayden Daniels was throwing a ton of screen passes behind the line of scrimmage, limiting the upside of this offense. But since Week 3, this has been one of the best units in football, as Daniels is airing it out. 33% of Terry McLaurin’s targets during the first two weeks were behind the line of scrimmage but over the past four weeks, just 6.4% of his targets have come from that area of the field. During that span, McLaurin is averaging 7.7 targets, 5.2 receptions, 79.2 yards and 18.2 fantasy points per game. A matchup with the Panthers should lead to continued success for McLaurin and the Commanders.
Seattle Is Allowing 201 Yards on 23 Carries Against Outside Zone Runs Since Week 4
This overall run defense has really struggled lately, also allowing the fourth-most yards before contact per attempt (2.9) and third-highest rushing success rate (48.4%) since Week 4. And in particular, the Seahawks have had issues slowing down outside zone concepts, which is really notable considering it is basically all the Atlanta Falcons run. On the season, 68.3% of Bijan Robinson’s carries have come on outside zone concepts, the highest rate in the NFL, and Tyler Allgeier is right behind him at 62.7%. You are obviously starting Robinson each week, but I think you can also start Allgeier if you need a running back or a flex. He has a great matchup and is averaging 10 touches per game over the course of the season.
DeVonta Smith Is Averaging 17.9 PPR PPG Without Dallas Goedert Since 2022
Tight end Dallas Goedert is dealing with a hamstring injury and likely sits out this week. That’s usually resulted in a bump in production for Smith, who is averaging 8.6 targets, 90.1 receiving yards and 17.9 fantasy points per game in eight games with Goedert sidelined since the start of the 2022 season (per the FTN Splits Tool, see below). Smith has also played two games this season with A.J. Brown healthy, sporting a 22% target share and 76.5% slot rate. He’s been getting a lot more of the layup targets in this offense this season and if Goedert is out, this Philadelphia passing attack becomes much more concentrated.
Justin Jefferson Has a 40% Target Share Against Man Coverage This Year
Jefferson continues to see elite usage, and while he’s been great, he hasn’t had that massive game just yet. It’ll probably happen this week, facing a man-heavy Detroit defense that has upgraded the secondary but still has no one to cover Jefferson, who is sporting a 40% target share against man coverage. And this secondary will likely have to cover even longer without Aidan Hutchinson rushing the passer. Detroit remains a massive pass funnel defense, as 74.7% of the yardage against the Lions has come through the air, one of the highest rates in all of football. I’m fully anticipating well over 100 yards and a touchdown from Jefferson in this pivotal NFC North matchup.
