Fantasy Football Multiverse: Indianapolis Colts

(FTN’s Matt Jones is going team-by-team to investigate some of the biggest fantasy issues around the NFL for the 2021 fantasy football season. Follow the whole Fantasy Football Multiverse series.)

The idea of the multiverse is fascinating to me. You change one small thing in one timeline and it breaks off and affects things down the road in profound ways. In the Marvel Cinematic Universe, that has Earth-shattering, Thanos snapping implications. In fantasy football, it’s just my fancy way of saying that a range of outcomes exists. My goal for this series is to pick a player from each team that is either polarizing or interesting in some other way. The flow will be the same throughout each article. For the next edition in this series, we’ll look at:

• Team-Level ADP
• Context for Michael Pittman
• Altering Pittman’s Projection for 2021

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Team-Level ADP

Context for Michael Pittman  

Second-year wide receivers pay off quite well when they break out. Of the 64 second-year wide receivers taken after Pick 100 in fantasy drafts, 13 (20%) have hit double-digit win rates. While Michael Pittman doesn’t have high fantasy draft capital, he does have a sizeable gap to the rest of the pass catchers on his team. That’s usually a signal that we can trust a player. 

Altering Pittman’s Projection for 2021

Jeff Ratcliffe has Michael Pittman projected for just over 10 PPR Points per game. His target share is right around 20% in that projection, but there’s a (good) chance that TY Hilton is toast. If that’s the case and Pittman emerges as a top target, we could see him smash his ADP. 

That increase of just over two points per game might seem like a modest improvement but it vaults him up into the WR2 conversation. He’s beating his ADP by 30+ spots at that point.