Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: ADP Rumblings (7/27)

Late July is one of the best times of the year. NFL training camps are officially underway and fantasy football drafts are starting to pick up. We are starting to get a higher volume of drafts, which means ADP data is starting to take shape and create reliable datasets to help fantasy managers prepare for the upcoming season. Now that ADP is starting to settle, we can draw multiple conclusions to help find pockets of value in fantasy drafts to create the strongest teams possible.

This article will once again pull from the most recent data in NFC drafts. There is plenty of value to be had in drafts, especially with training camp returns starting to surface across social media. Check out the values that stand out most to me as the calendar turns to August.

Marlon Mack, RB, Houston Texans

NFC ADP: RB56

Things were looking great for Marlon Mack for two seasons in 2018 and 2019 with the Indianapolis Colts. In those two years, Mack totaled 442 carries for 1,999 yards and 17 touchdowns while catching 31 of 43 targets for 185 yards and a touchdown. Mack would be heading into the final year of his rookie deal as the team’s top back after proving he was an effective NFL running back. However, that solid second contract would never come to fruition. Just months later the team would draft Jonathan Taylor in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft, and shortly after that Mack would tear his Achilles just 11 snaps into his fourth season. Mack wound up signing with the Colts again before the 2021 season but played a minor role, totaling just 28 carries for 101 yards. He was at least healthy enough to prove he should get another shot with another team.

Mack ended up signing a one-year, $2 million contract with the Houston Texans this offseason, joining Rex Burkhead, Dare Ogunbowale and Royce Freeman as the veterans in Houston’s odd backfield. The team eventually used a fourth-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft on Dameon Pierce. There is a real chance Mack is the most talented back on the team, which makes him a screaming value at RB56. At the very least, the Texans could opt to use a veteran running back to start the season to help Davis Mills continue to develop at quarterback. Either way, Mack is a fantastic value as the RB56 (and going 40 picks after Pierce). A good rule of thumb in the case of ambiguous backfields is to draft the cheapest option. Few backfields in the NFL are more uncertain than the Texans, which is why Mack is an excellent value with upside late in fantasy drafts. At worst, he’s a bench piece you can move on from, but at best, you get a starting running back in the 14th round of fantasy drafts.

Jakobi Meyers, WR, New England Patriots

NFC ADP: WR60

Last season, Jakobi Meyers finished as the WR29 in PPR leagues, averaging 11.5 fantasy points per game. He quickly established himself as Mac Jones’ favorite target during the quarterback’s rookie season, leading the team in targets (126), receptions (83) and receiving yards (866). He also scored two touchdowns, finding the end zone for the first time in his three years as an NFL player. According to FTN’s advanced receiving data, Meyers finished the season with 18 contested catches, eighth most in the NFL last season. As a reward for having his best professional season, Meyers is going off the board as the WR60 in fantasy drafts this offseason.

Fantasy players have been hesitant to draft New England’s skill players given the unpredictability of the Patriots’ offense. Most figure New England will continue to utilize a run-heavy offense, which means less value for the team’s wide receivers. Even if that is true, there is no reason to believe that Meyers will take a step back in the offense during his fourth season in the league. It’s even possible New England throws the ball more after Jones showed he was a capable NFL quarterback in his rookie season. It is exceedingly rare to get a team’s WR1 in the 11th or 12th round of fantasy drafts. Meyers should once again be New England’s top receiving target out of the slot, making him an excellent value, especially in PPR leagues. At the very least, he will provide an excellent floor that will make him a strong WR3 or flex play throughout the season.

Austin Hooper, TE, Tennessee Titans

NFC ADP: TE22

If you choose to fade the tight end position at the beginning of drafts, you are hoping to find a player who can finish toward the top of their team’s target leaders during that season. A player who can meet those criteria and is going underdrafted in fantasy drafts is Austin Hooper. There was plenty of excitement for Hooper in fantasy after the 2019 season when he was added to the Browns on what we thought was an ascending offense. Unfortunately, Hooper was disappointing during his tenure with the Browns, averaging just 65.5 targets, 42.0 receptions, 390 receiving yards and 3.5 touchdowns in two seasons.

Hooper signed with the Titans on a one-year deal this offseason, throwing him onto a run-first team with plenty of uncertainty in the receiving game. Four of Tennessee’s top five targeted players from 2021 are no longer with the team, including tight end Anthony Firkser. The team added Robert Woods, coming off an ACL injury, in an offseason trade and drafted Treylon Burks in the first round, but both players will have question marks coming into this season. Tennessee could choose to feature Hooper early in the season, especially in the play-action game as Woods regains his strength and Burks acclimates to the NFL. Hooper can easily finish top three in targets this season and will be on the receiving end of accurate passes from a veteran quarterback who doesn’t turn the ball over.

Hooper is currently being drafted as the TE22 in fantasy drafts, a price that is heavily influenced by his disappointing seasons with the Browns. While it is unlikely we see the same player who averaged 83.3 targets per season in his last three years with the Falcons, Hooper should have plenty of chances to be fantasy relevant this upcoming season. He’s a low-cost tight end who allows fantasy managers the freedom to invest heavily in upside players throughout the middle rounds of the draft.

Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants

NFC ADP: QB22

In Greek mythology, there is a story of a king named Sisyphus who is punished by Zeus and forced to spend eternity pushing a boulder up a hill only for it to roll back down when he is close to reaching its crest. Like Sisyphus, I am doomed to constantly push the boulder of Daniel Jones late in fantasy drafts, refusing to acknowledge past mistakes and instead believing that this is the year the dual-threat quarterback will finally put together a strong fantasy season. But at QB22, it is a low-risk investment that can (hopefully) pay high-end dividends.

Last season was not a great one for Jones. He played in just 11 games (the third straight season out of three in the NFL he failed to play a full season). He set career lows in passing yards (2,428) and touchdowns (10) and had his lowest rushing output since his rookie season (298). But there were some positives as well. He had his highest career completion percentage (64.3%) and lowest career interception rate (1.9%) despite playing behind a porous offensive line and missing many of his receiving weapons throughout the season.

There are reasons for optimism heading into 2022. With luck, Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney and Saquon Barkley will find a way to stay healthy after an offseason to heal. The team also added a dynamic receiver in the second round of the draft in Wan’Dale Robinson. The Giants invested in their offensive line in both free agency (center Jon Feliciano and right guard Mark Glowinski) and the draft (right tackle Evan Neal). Most importantly, the team hired Brian Daboll as the head coach. Daboll gets plenty of credit for developing Josh Allen in Buffalo while creating an offense that catered to his strengths.

There is a very good chance that after three seasons we have seen what Jones is as an NFL quarterback. However, the stars are aligning for him to have the best season of his career with strong playmakers and a coach that can help highlight his strengths and avoid his limitations. He’s worth the risk as a backend QB2 in fantasy drafts.

Now if you’ll excuse me, this boulder isn’t going to get itself up that hill.