Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
As the summer presses on, more and more fantasy managers are waking up from the doldrums of the offseason and firing up fantasy drafts. As more and more fantasy players participate in drafts, we get a clearer view of different trends in fantasy drafts. The purpose of this article is to parse through the ADP of fantasy players throughout the summer to notice players who are either being overvalued or undervalued by the fantasy community.
Like the last article, this writing will focus on the average draft position data provided by the National Football Championships. This article will release bi-weekly as we get closer and closer to the start of the fantasy season.
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans
NFC Drafts: QB22
On the surface, Ryan Tannehill dropping to a backend QB2 in fantasy drafts makes a lot of sense. The Titans have a run-first offense with a (hopefully) healthy Derrick Henry, let Julio Jones walk in free agency, and traded A.J. Brown during the NFL draft. However, it seems like a massive overcorrection given how Tannehill has performed since becoming the Titans’ starting quarterback.
In three seasons with the Titans, Tannehill is averaging a 67.3% completion percentage with 3,431.7 yards and 25.3 touchdowns with just nine interceptions per season. He also remains a quietly effective rusher, averaging 47 carries, 240.3 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns per season. In three seasons with Tennessee, Tannehill has never finished with fewer than 15 fantasy points per game.
While Tannehill did throw the second-most interceptions in a season in his career last season (14), it’s worth noting he was forced to carry an offense that played Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Chester Rogers and Anthony Firkser as its primary pass catchers for stretches at a time against defenses that didn’t have to game plan to stop Henry.
The loss of Brown will have a significant impact on the offense, but as a whole, the Titans improved the quality of pass-catchers this offseason. The trade for Robert Woods provides a veteran receiver who was averaging 7.7 targets, 5.0 receptions and 61.8 receiving yards per game before tearing his ACL before Week 10. They also added Austin Hooper in free agency to add a more significant pass-catching presence at the tight end position. Finally, they drafted Treylon Burks with the pick they got from Philadelphia in the Brown trade. While Burks has struggled throughout training camp with asthma, he has a lot of the same traits as Brown as a receiver (big target with yards after the catch ability).
The return of Derrick Henry with more reliable and higher quality pass-catchers gives Ryan Tannehill an excellent chance to finish in the top-15 quarterbacks once again for fantasy. He’s an excellent QB2 and is still available at a discount in fantasy drafts.
Chase Edmonds, RB, Miami Dolphins
NFC Drafts: RB34
Chase Edmonds was very efficient in his first season as the primary back for the Arizona Cardinals last year before getting injured. In 12 games (11 starts), Edmonds had 116 carries for 592 yards and two touchdowns while adding 43 receptions on 53 targets for 311 receiving yards. According to FTN’s advanced rushing stats, Edmonds had the most runs of 10-plus yards on the Cardinals last season (18) despite having just 117 carries. Unfortunately for fantasy managers, Edmonds frequently took a backseat to James Conner and Kyler Murray in the red zone, leading to an underwhelming touchdown total and ultimately an RB34 finish. Edmonds fared much better in fantasy points per game, finishing with 11.9, which was good for 23rd among players who played in at least 12 games during the 2022 season.
Now, Edmonds finds himself as the potential starter on the Dolphins, a team that spent a considerable amount of time this offseason upgrading its supporting cast on offense. The Dolphins acquired left tackle Terron Armstead and left guard Connor Williams in free agency. They also traded for Tyreek Hill to provide a second explosive receiving option along with Jaylen Waddle. Miami did also bring in Raheem Mostert and Sony Michel, but neither of those players has historically shown a skillset to eat into Edmonds’ receiving work, which are the most valuable touches for a running back. Edmonds should be able to find solid running lanes behind a revamped offensive line, but more importantly, will be able to have huge opportunities in the passing game as teams try to cover Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle down the field.
It is very possible Mostert and Michel once again cap Edmond’s touches in the red zone. However, if he can stay healthy and hold them off, he’s got a strong chance to be one of the best values in fantasy drafts, especially in PPR leagues.
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
NFC Drafts: WR47
Chris Olave was a very polarizing player throughout the draft cycle as a senior prospect who didn’t dominate targets in a crowded Ohio State receiving room. Despite that, Olave still finished with career highs in receptions (65), yards (936) and touchdowns (13) during the 2021 season. Now that the draft is over and we can focus our attention on the 2022 fantasy season, it appears he’s got one of the best situations of any rookie wide receiver.
Olave enters the NFL as one of the most refined route runners and finds himself on a team that will be sorely in need of receiving weapons. Most expect Michael Thomas to return, but it’s been over a year since we’ve seen him play football after a series of ankle surgeries. Add in Alvin Kamara’s likely suspension to start the season and you find a genuine outcome of Olave functioning as the Saints’ second target in the receiving game. While the return of Michael Thomas would cap Olave’s ability to earn targets, it would also draw coverage away from him and give him a better chance to use his route running to get open. Conversely, another Thomas setback would put the rookie in the driver’s seat to lead the team in targets to start the season.
Jameis Winston struggled with accuracy during the seven games he played last season before a knee injury (59% completion percentage) but was still able to throw for 1,170 yards and 14 touchdowns despite learning a new system on a team that was unexpectedly missing their top target. Regardless of whether Thomas is available, Olave is in a position to have a big first year but is readily available in the late eighth or early ninth round of fantasy football drafts.
Evan Engram, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
NFC Drafts: TE21
Years of inconsistent play with the New York Giants have soured fantasy players on Evan Engram, leading him to be drafted as the TE21 in fantasy drafts. In his five seasons with the Giants, Engram averaged 85.8 targets, 52.4 receptions, 565.6 receiving yards and 3.2 touchdowns per season. The veteran tight end struggled with consistency and injuries throughout his Giants career, leading him to sign with the Jacksonville Jaguars for the 2022 season. Engram now finds himself on a new team with a new coaching staff and a young quarterback widely considered one of the best prospects of all time.
Consistent targets are the key to any tight end hitting in fantasy football. Engram now finds himself on a depth chart featuring Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones, Zay Jones and Travis Etienne. While the Jaguars will likely try to find more balance on offense than they had last season (602 pass attempts), there are still plenty of opportunities for Engram to earn a top two or three target share on this team. Additionally, his combination of size and speed is unique in the receiving room and should get him plenty of targets in the red zone.
Plenty of fantasy gamers have been burned by Engram over the years. But as the TE21 in fantasy drafts, he provides a unique opportunity to players willing to take the plunge once again given his potential role on in a pass-heavy offense with an ascending young quarterback.
