Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
This week’s edition of the ADP rumbling will focus on looking at the ADPs of some of the NFL players in the news over the course of the last two weeks. We are getting extremely close to July and NFL training camps, which means it is time to start paying attention to ADP data to really get a feel for where the values will be in fantasy drafts.
As the summer goes on, more and more players are drafting teams on a number of platforms. This article will look at ADP data from National Fantasy Championships players to target or avoid based on their current draft positions. A new version of this article will be out every few weeks at FTN, so be on the lookout for more analysis in the future.
Here are the names that stand out to me at the moment.
Names in the News
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
NFC ADP: RB13
In a perfect world, Alvin Kamara’s RB13 would represent a great value in fantasy drafts with Jameis Winston set to return under center with the New Orleans Saints. Kamara and Winston played together for seven games last season before Winston’s ACL injury, and during that stretch, Kamara averaged 19 carries, 5.3 targets and 105.2 all-purpose yards per game while scoring six touchdowns. Those numbers were good enough to make the veteran running back the RB4 in points per game (19.7) from Weeks 1 through 8.
Unfortunately, we do not live in a perfect world, and it is becoming more and more likely Kamara will start the 2022 NFL season with a six-game suspension for being involved in a fight in Las Vegas during the Pro Bowl. (If the league waits for the completion of Kamara’s court proceedings, the suspension could delay until during the season, or — in the best-case scenario for Kamara’s redraft managers — 2023 or beyond.) Kamara will still score a lot of fantasy points as the lead running back behind a strong offensive line with a high-volume pass-catching role in New Orleans, but knowing there’s a good chance he could miss over one-third of the NFL season means that his ceiling is inevitably capped.
In the last week, Kamara has dropped from RB10 to RB13 in NFC drafts and is now being drafted at the back of Round 2. In reality, that price is probably still a bit too rich. Looking back at last season, Derrick Henry (RB18) was the only running back who secured a top-24 finish playing in fewer than 13 games. Elijah Mitchell (RB26), Darrell Henderson (RB27), and Chase Edmonds (RB34) all finished as RB3s with 12 games played, which is still more than we can expect Kamara to suit up. Given his role in the offense, it is likely Kamara does finish somewhere in the RB3 range and will provide boom weeks down the stretch but paying a premium price to have him sit on your bench to start the season is hard to swallow at this point.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns
NFC ADP: QB20
When he’s on the field, Deshaun Watson is arguably one of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL. With his ongoing legal issues, it seems highly unlikely that we are going to see much of that during the 2022 season with the NFL pushing for an indefinite suspension that will be for a minimum of one full season. While Watson has only dropped one spot in QB rankings to QB20 in the last two weeks, he has fallen from pick 173 to 182 in NFFC drafts. At this point, even that is a risky proposition considering players who will be full-time starters with upside (Jameis Winston, Mac Jones, Zach Wilson) are going well behind him in fantasy drafts.
We likely won’t know Watson’s fate for some time yet, but since an indefinite suspension is on the table, it is safest to avoid Watson at ADP to take a quarterback that has a chance to a full season in 2022.
Cameron Brate, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC ADP: TE22
The Rob Gronkowski retirement news has caused Cameron Brate to surge up draft boards in the last week. In the last seven days, Brate has seen gone from the TE31 (Pick 276) to TE22 (Pick 183) in NFC drafts, jumping into the range of tight ends like David Njoku, Gerald Everett, Evan Engram and Robert Tonyan. In terms of value, taking Brate as your team’s second tight end makes a lot of sense in the 15th round of fantasy drafts since his role will grow. But there are plenty of reasons to pause before going all-in on Brate assuming his ADP continues to spike.
In 2021, there was a six-game stretch where Gronkowski either missed a game or played in less than 10% of the Buccaneers’ snaps. Brate took over as the team’s starting tight end during that stretch, but averaged just 3.7 targets, 1.5 receptions and 14.7 receiving yards while scoring just one touchdown. Even with the loss of Gronkowski (and the injury to Chris Godwin), Brate will struggle to command targets against Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette, Russell Gage and Tyler Johnson. The team also added a tight end (Cade Otton) and a pass-catching running back (Rashaad White) during the NFL draft.
The most likely outcome for Brate is he sees a low volume of targets down the field with the possibility of red zone looks given his size. That is a fine shot to take at the TE22 but will lead to many inconsistent weeks of fantasy production. If Brate’s ADP continues to climb into the low-end TE2 range, then he’s a worthy fade for players like Engram and Everett who also find themselves higher in the pecking order in equally high-volume passing offenses.
One Too High, One Too Low
Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC: WR28
One player whose ADP doesn’t mesh well with what we can expect from him is Chris Godwin. Godwin suffered an ACL tear in Week 15 of the 2021 regular season. When healthy, Godwin is capable of putting up fantastic numbers. Godwin averaged 9.1 targets, 7.0 receptions and 78.8 receiving yards in 14 games last season while scoring five touchdowns. However, the Buccaneers have very little incentive to rush Godwin back from his injury to start the year playing in the NFC since the road to the playoffs isn’t nearly as challenging as the AFC.
There is a very real chance Godwin starts the season on the PUP list, which would keep him out until October. If the Buccaneers are playing well throughout the first month-plus of the season, it isn’t outside the realm of possibility that they bring Godwin along slowly before fully utilizing him after their Week 11 bye. Godwin is currently being taken with the 60th pick in NFC drafts, ahead of players who can command their team’s WR1 role (Amari Cooper, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Elijah Moore, Rashod Bateman). Given the likelihood that Godwin misses time to start the season, it’s hard to justify him being a fifth-round pick in fantasy drafts at the moment.
Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
NFC ADP: WR41
One player who isn’t getting a lot of love in fantasy drafts is Christian Kirk. He’s currently going off the board with pick 92 as the WR41. The veteran receiver had his best season with the Cardinals playing primarily out of the slot in 2021, finishing with 77 receptions on 103 targets for 982 yards and five touchdowns. Kirk finished as the WR26 in fantasy points last season and the WR31 in points per game (12.2) with a minimum of 12 games played. Kirk was given a 4-year, $72 million dollar contract by the Jaguars during the offseason and has the versatility to serve as an outside receiver who will primarily play in the slot in three-receiver sets.
Jacksonville’s passing offense was abysmal last season, but Trevor Lawrence still threw the ball 602 times, seventh most in the league. The Jaguars overhauled their coaching staff and will likely be more balanced on offense (assuming the defense can keep them in games), but Kirk will still be on the field in a fast-paced offense with one of the greatest QB prospects in recent years. Kirk will likely be the focal point of the passing attack and should be able to easily outperform his current ADP.
