Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Super Bowl isn’t even three weeks removed, but our attentions are already turned to the 2024 NFL and fantasy football season.
There is no denying the frustration and disappointment you feel when drafting a player relatively high in drafts, only for them to massively disappoint. And while it may feel easy to simply remove that play from your draft board for the rest of time, it is important to find out why certain players underwhelmed and decipher whether a bounceback season is possible.
Today, I’m highlighting some players who disappointed in 2023 but could turn things around next year.
Quarterback
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
A preseason calf injury held Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ offense back last season, but once he got fully healthy, he looked like himself again. In fact, following a Week 4 game against Tennessee, Burrow stated he felt as healthy as he has all year and sure enough, he followed it up with a 317-yard, three-touchdown performance against Arizona. In Weeks 5-11 (before his wrist injury), Burrow was the QB9 in fantasy, while ranking third in touchdown passes (13), second in 300-yard games (3) and third in touchdown passes of 40-plus yards (2) during that span. The Bengals used more play-action and operated under center more, proving Burrow was fully healthy. In Weeks 5-11, Burrow’s play-action rate climbed by about 5%. He’s still an elite quarterback, y’all.
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor missed the first four games with an ankle injury, but with Zack Moss playing well, he didn’t fully take over the Indianapolis backfield until Week 9, when he logged 75% of the snaps and 62% of the rushing attempts. I expect similar usage next season in an ascending Colts offense that was as fantasy-friendly as it gets. In Shane Steichen’s first season in Indianapolis, the Colts led the league in average seconds per snap (24.0) and no-huddle rate (16.6%). And according to FTN Data, the Colts ran RPO 18.1% of the time, the highest rate in the league, which could lead to plenty of light boxes from Taylor.
Josh Jacobs, Free Agent
Following a marvelous 2022 campaign, the Raiders used the franchise tag on Josh Jacobs last year, but he struggled in 2023. He set career-lows in yards per carry (3.5), fantasy points per touch (0.67), yards after contact per attempt (2.09), explosive run rate (3.9%) and avoided tackle rate (12%). However, Las Vegas’ offensive line didn’t do him many favors, as Jacobs ranked 37th in yards before contact per rush (1.9), while he was contacted behind the line of scrimmage 24% of the time. The good news? The volume remained elite for Jacobs, who saw a target or carry on 40.6% of his snaps, the highest rate in all of football. He has now ranked top-three in that department each of the last two years and if he returns to the Raiders in 2024, I’d bet he finishes top-three again.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
I wrote about Aaron Jones in my “injured players to remember” column recently, but he certainly makes for a bounceback candidate as well. Sure, he is 29 years old, but Jones didn’t really show signs of slowing down last year outside of missing time with a hamstring issue. When Jones was fully over the hamstring issue, he delivered. In Weeks 15-18, the veteran recorded three 100-yard games, averaging 19 carries for 103 rushing yards and 14.6 PPR points per game. And keep in mind he averaged nearly 15 fantasy points per contest without scoring a single touchdown during that stretch. From an efficiency standpoint, Jones was still strong, averaging 5.2 yards per touch (14th) and a healthy 2.65 yards after contact per rush. Going forward, we now know that Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love is the truth, which can only mean good things for Jones.
Wide Receiver
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
We were robbed of a top-10 season from Wilson the second Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles in Week 1. Wilson, despite awful quarterback play, still finished as the WR26 in full PPR, as he and Breece Hall were the focal points of the Jets offense. Wilson posted a target share right around 30%, while also drawing a target on 24% of his routes. His 44.9% air yardage share trailed only Davante Adams, while his 135 first-read targets ranked fourth in the league. A healthy Rodgers should propel Wilson to top-12 territory.
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta’s top three offensive players have flirted with greatness at times, but this Falcons’ offense has often held them back. However, new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson is looking to make Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts and Drake London priorities, which is music to my ears. In Atlanta’s previous regime that featured the run and throwing to the tight ends, London has ranked 24th and 22nd in targets over the past two seasons. If Robinson intends to implement elements of the Rams’ offense in Atlanta, we should see more pre-snap motion and bunch formations designed to get the wide receivers open. Oh, and a likely upgrade at quarterback won’t hurt either.
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
In drafts last summer, Jaylen Waddle was coming off the board toward the end of the second round as a top-12 wideout. However, he ultimately finished as WR34, as Miami’s passing game went through Tyreek Hill, who led the NFL in both target share (32.7%) and target per route run rate (36.6%). Waddle dealt with injury, missing four games and heading to the locker room in the middle of a handful more. What I would love to see from Waddle is more pre-snap motion and schemed touches. We know the Dolphins use more pre-snap motion than anyone (78%), while Hill was in motion pre-snap over 18% of the time. However, despite playing in the same offense, Waddle was only in pre-snap motion 3.9% of the time. During Hill’s first year in Miami, he was still clearly the lead wide receiver, but Waddle still finished as a top-10 fantasy wideout.
Tight End
Noah Fant, Free Agent
This really depends on what team Noah Fant is playing on next season, but I do believe he can post low-end TE1 production in the right offense. Seattle wasn’t the spot for a fantasy relevant tight end, as the Seahawks mostly threw to their wide receivers, and even added a third immense talent last year. Seattle operated out of 13 personnel (three tight ends) 9% of the time last year, the second-highest rate in football. As a result, Fant ranked just 26th among tight ends in routes run, while he also ran a route on just 52% of Seattle’s pass attempts. I’m excited to potentially see him in a larger role next season.
