Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
You draft a player in the middle to late rounds of your fantasy football draft, they appear to be a league-winner and suddenly they go down with an injury. Just like that, their season is over and you’re left wondering what if. There’s nothing worse.
Except wet socks. Or stepping on a pile of Legos. Those might be worse.
Anyway, while it is frustrating, it shouldn’t necessarily deter you from going back to that player during fantasy drafts the following year, especially since they have showcased serious upside. I’d also add that even players deemed “injury prone” also shouldn’t be removed from your draft board because, well, every player is injury prone. So let’s take a look at some players who saw their 2023 seasons end prematurely and why you should target them in drafts in 2024.
Note: Obviously Justin Jefferson and Nick Chubb are elite football players. I don’t think you’ll be forgetting about either player come draft day.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson briefly teased us with top-five fantasy upside before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 5. Richardson played the majority of the snaps just twice during his shortened rookie campaign, finishing as the QB4 and QB2 in those contests. And in Weeks 2 and 5 (when he left early), Richardson was on pace for top-10 fantasy days again, especially Week 2 where he scored nearly 18 fantasy points in just a half of play. Richardson’s upside was unlocked with his rushing potential, as he averaged 6.3 rush attempts and 34 rushing yards per game, scoring four rushing touchdowns through just two full games. He had three carries inside the 5-yard line in Weeks 1-5, handling 18% of Indianapolis’ designed rush attempts during that span. No quarterback averaged more fantasy points per dropback than Richardson (0.73) during the first five weeks of the season.
Heading into the 2024 season, there is no reason to avoid Richardson as your starting fantasy signal caller. Hopefully the Colts re-sign Michael Pittman, but either way, this offense is so fantasy-friendly with Shane Steichen calling the plays. Last season, the Colts operated at the league’s fastest pace, averaging 24.0 seconds per snap, and their 16.6% no-huddle rate was the highest in football. And according to FTN Data, the Colts ran RPO 18.1% of the time, the highest rate in the league. Richardson is going to be a borderline top-10 fantasy quarterback in my ranks for 2024 with top-seven upside.
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
Yes, he is 29 years old, but Aaron Jones still looked like the most underrated running back in the league when healthy last year. A Week 1 hamstring injury bothered him for much of the season, sidelining for six games and holding his season-long numbers in check. However, when Jones was fully over the hamstring issue, he delivered. In Weeks 15-18, the veteran recorded three 100-yard games, averaging 19 carries for 103 rushing yards and 14.6 PPR points per game. And keep in mind he averaged nearly 15 fantasy points per contest without scoring a single touchdown during that stretch. From an efficiency standpoint, Jones was still strong, averaging 5.2 yards per touch (14th) and a healthy 2.65 yards after contact per rush. Going forward, we now know that Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love is the truth, which can only mean good things for Jones. He reminds me a lot of the running back version of Keenan Allen, who dealt with a hamstring issue for most of the 2022 season but dominated once fully healthy, even at his age.
Keaton Mitchell, RB, Baltimore Ravens
You could certainly include J.K. Dobbins, who looked strong before tearing his Achilles in Week 1. But I want to highlight Keaton Mitchell, who made so many splash plays for this offense that the Ravens had to expand his role in the middle of the season. Mitchell averaged over eight yards per touch, and seven of his 47 runs went for 15-plus yards (14.9%). The rookie’s speed was a massive boost for this offense and head coach John Harbaugh gave Mitchell a larger role starting in Week 9 when he rushed for 138 yards and a touchdown against the Seahawks. In Weeks 9-15, Mitchell played 32% of the snaps, handled 28% of the rush attempts and averaged 9.2 touches per game. He still averaged over 11 fantasy points per game during that span, despite the improved, though still limited usage. Unfortunately, Mitchell tore his ACL in Week 15, ending his season right when he was emerging. Heading into 2024, Dobbins and fellow backfieldmate Gus Edwards are unrestricted free agents. Mitchell is unlikely to become Baltimore’s every-down running back, but he could be the 1B in one of the league’s top rushing attacks.
Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
After Jacksonville’s first game of the season, it really appeared as if Calvin Ridley was the clear WR1 in this offense, with Christian Kirk taking a backseat. However, that was a bit of a mirage, as Kirk saw more usage and production than Ridley the rest of the way. In fact, in Weeks 2-13, Kirk saw a 22% target share to Ridley’s 20%, and his target-per-route-run rate of 22% during that span was also ahead of Ridley’s (18%). During that span, Kirk averaged nearly 8.0 targets per game to go along with 5.1 receptions, 70.7 receiving yards and 13.8 PPR points per contest, while Ridley averaged 6.6, 3.9, 53.5 and 11.8, respectively. A groin injury in Week 13 ended Kirk’s season. Ridley was more consistent with Kirk sidelined, but even if he returns to Jacksonville next year, Kirk has shown to be the top wideout for Trevor Lawrence.
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (for now)
Tee Higgins is a very intriguing player entering the offseason, because he could be playing elsewhere. It does sound like the Bengals intend to use the franchise tag on him, though, and as long as he remains in Cincinnati, Higgins cannot be overlooked in drafts, despite the fact that he has missed seven games over the last two years, while also leaving multiple contests early. Joe Burrow’s injured calf limited this passing attack to start last year, but once Burrow was healthy, the Bengals operated from under center more, implementing more play-action. A healthy Burrow is obviously huge for Higgins, as the returned mobility gives Higgins time to get down the field and make explosive plays. Ja’Marr Chase is still clearly the alpha in this offense, but the attack is good enough (and throws enough) for Higgins to finish as a top-15 fantasy wideout alongside Chase.
