Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Every year, some follically challenged scribe lists his favorite underpriced names he believes are destined to torch the competition. Some readers inevitably categorize them as “sleepers,” an overused, misrepresented and poorly defined blanket term in the virtual game. No, consider these fiery individuals “undervalued,” players outside of common starting requirements in 12-team leagues (e.g. RB1-RB24) who pack plenty of bang for the buck. Tuesday’s ‘Flames’ cover RBs.
Raheem Mostert, San Francisco 49ers
(ADP: RB27, 54.4 ADP)
The rusher’s playing of the “Pay me or trade me!” card via social media in June worked like a charm, as GM John Lynch quickly caved and rewarded Mostert with a restructured contract. With his commitment to the Niners temporarily undetermined, fantasy drafters abandoned the ship in droves, leaving all precious valuables, even cherished home league trophies, behind. Amazingly, though all issues between the RB and his employer are resolved, the market has yet to correct.
That, my friends, presents a buying opportunity.
Yes, he’s a journeyman 28-year-old committee back who only briefly captivated the hearts and minds of the statistically driven, but his production from 2019 can’t be overlooked. On a mere 32.2% of the opportunity share, he scored 10 total touchdowns, netted 3.50 in yards after contact per attempt (RB5), finished No. 2 in yards created per touch and forced a missed tackle on 20.5% of his touches. In other words, he was remarkably efficient.
Adding muscle to his skinny frame this offseason, Mostert is expected to spearhead San Francisco’s RBBC. Tevin Coleman and a resurrected Jerick McKinnon will occasionally spell him, but 13-15 touches are likely in order. If he receives that level of consistent work, he’s a viable top-20 RB candidate. The Gold Panners’ line is slated to again finish among the upper echelon in run-blocking. Kyle Shanahan’s unrelenting defense, too, is set to scribble positive game scripts. In the end, a final tally around 1100 total yards with 7-9 TDs is very much in reach.
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears
(RB25, 50.3)
Yes, the annoyance of #MandatoryMontgomery knows no bounds. After this moron writer’s incessant pleas for fantasy drafters to sink fake dollars into the rookie rusher, only to lead to a ruinous result, you’ve moved on. But is it the smartest decision? Trepidation is warranted, but fortune, in this case, favors the bold.
Standing atop Montgomery Hill cleaved and bleeding, this ardent supporter is keeping the faith. The sophomore rusher, clearly motivated to prove skeptics wrong, is reportedly leaner and hopefully meaner. If he can transform similarly to what another overtly patient runner Le’Veon Bell did from Year 1 to Year 2, the Bears back could finally deliver on his promise. Recall last year in a deflated rookie campaign he still crossed over 1,000 combined yards and scored seven touchdowns, forcing a missed tackle a laudable 20.6% of the time.
Chicago’s offensive line continues to be a work in progress. Matt Nagy’s treachery — Tarik Cohen runs up the gut on first down? Really?! — is also a deterrent. Still, Montgomery possesses the one characteristic fantasy players constantly seek — volume. Expected to handle at least 65-70% of the workload and with a more competent QB, Nick Foles, at the controls, the needle points in a favorable direction. If everything comes together, 1,300 total yards with double-digit TDs is a plausible outcome.
Don’t be a coward. Available at a much cheaper cost this August, Montgomery is worth doubling down on.
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Mark Ingram, Baltimore Ravens
(RB26, 50.7)
The aftermath of a heaping spaghetti plate given to a 1-year old. That’s how messy the Baltimore backfield currently is.
When OC Greg Roman was recently asked about the RB situation he remarked vaguely it will be determined “on the fly” and will “evolve” as training camp unfolds. In other words, it’s anyone’s best guess just how the split between Ingram, hotshot rookie J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill is deployed. The youngster from Ohio State is a legit three-down stallion with all the tools in the box to make an instant impact, however, in these coronavirus-shaped times veterans will have every opportunity to stave off the incoming charge. Baltimore won’t be any different.
There are few reasons to doubt Ingram relinquishes his title as the Ravens’ primary rusher. Last season, he tallied an appreciable 3.08 yards after contact per attempt and finished RB17 in yards created per carry. His toughness between the tackles meshes perfectly within Roman’s zone-read scheme. With defenses focused on containing Lamar Jackson, he’ll continue to benefit from friendly fronts working in concert with a top-flight offensive line.
Baltimore pounded the pill a league high 37.2 times per game last year. Assuming it reduces Jackson’s workload, a buyable development, Ingram should command 14-15 touches per game, or exactly at his 54.9% opportunity share from 2019. Do that and he finishes in range of 1,100 combined yards and eight-plus touchdowns. Good value for a perceived RB3.
Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team
(RB46, 120.7)
Cam Akers and D’Andre Swift, wonderfully talented rookies with fairly unobstructed paths to touches, were strongly considered, but with Derrius Guice deservedly kicked to the curb by Washington, Gibson immediately became one of the most fascinating first-year fantasy prospects drafts.
Fueled by Ron Rivera’s blood-rushing Christian McCaffrey comparisons earlier this summer, many Fantasyland denizens vehemently believe Gibson will suddenly morph into a bell-cow running back. Hold your horses. He’s a wonderfully gifted athlete (4.39 40-yard at 6-feet, 228 pounds) who owns jukes for days (33 missed tackles forced on 77 college touches), but he’s very unrefined as a rusher. He received handoffs at Memphis just 33 times in 2019. It’s most likely Frank Gore’s great grandson, Adrian Peterson, will dominate early-down work over the first month or two with Gibson sprinklings happening on occasion. As ESPN’s NFL insider John Keim recently noted, “He’s clay when it comes to running back.”
Eventually, Gibson, once up to speed on protections and scheme, will receive 10-12 touches per game. It’s possible he’s utilized in a similar capacity as Cleveland’s Kareem Hunt, a chess piece moved about to maximize matchups as a receiver. Despite the rough edges, he’s a fascinating prospect with measurable upside, but play the patience game. And, most importantly, don’t overspend. He’s affordable now, but if the hype train swells with passengers, his ‘Flames’ potential extinguishes.
Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts
(RB32, 76.8)
As the Shiny New Toy Syndrome, spurred by hype tied to Jonathan Taylor and his sleeveless images circulating on social media, spreads throughout the fantasy community an underappreciated Mack continues to go mostly unnoticed.
Over the past few weeks beat writers from The Athletic have repeatedly noted Taylor is locked in a timeshare backfield with Mack and Nyheim Hines. Frank Reich, too, has reiterated it, yet the rookie continues to go some 60 picks ahead of the well-respected incumbent.
Undoubtedly, Taylor owns the skills of a future fantasy roster pillar. He’s thickly built (5-foot-10, 226 pounds), races past defenders in the open field (4.39 40-yard) and steamrolls through contact (3.93 YAC/att in ‘19 with Wisconsin). Also blessed with eagle vision and decisive cuts, he routinely gashes opponents at the line of scrimmage or on second-level scampers.
Mack will be pushed, but he deserves more credit. His YAC numbers were subpar last season and he’s a liability as a receiver, but he ranked RB6 in yards created per carry and totaled 1,091 rush yards with eight touchdowns in ‘19.
Ultimately, a full-blown committee approach is inevitable in Indy. The hot hand is sure to rule the day. Some weeks Mack will be the primary mail carrier; others Taylor. It may not sound appealing, but regular double-digit carries in a conservative offense featuring a premier offensive line is awfully attractive to any fantasy player with a functional frontal lobe. A tally around 850-900 total yards with 7-9 TDs is achievable for Mack.
