Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Fantasy football draft strategy doesn’t need to be complex. The goal on draft day is pretty simple: to out-draft your opponents and put together the best team possible. While there’s certainly a lot to think about in a fantasy draft, there are a few key things to keep in mind as we head into the heart of fantasy football draft season. Here are five tips to help you dominate your 2020 fantasy football drafts.
1. Keep it simple on draft day
A lot of folks show up to their drafts with binders of material or have multiple spreadsheets and tabs open on their laptops. Simply put, this is information overload, and you really don’t need it all to make your picks. Sure, all this info is important right now as you prep for your drafts, but more inputs on draft day can lead you to paralysis from over analysis.
Put the work in beforehand, but keep it as streamlined as possible on draft day. I highly recommend checking out my 2020 fantasy football draft board, which can be found in the FTN Fantasy Football Game Plan Draft Guide. On this single sheet, you have every piece of information you need to make the best decision possible on each one of your picks. You won’t need to flip through pages or go back and forth between apps in your laptop. That means you’re less likely to panic pick, and you’ll more time to focus on exploiting your opponents’ mistakes on draft day.
2. Don’t wait at running back
There’s a perception among some players that the position is deep this year, but trust me, it isn’t. You aren’t going to like your options after the first 40 running backs come off the board, and current ADP suggests that’s going to happen by the end of the eighth round in 12-team leagues. That means the position is dried up by the time you reach the halfway point of your draft.
While the big-name wideouts are going to be tempting in the early phases of your draft, going with a full-on zero-RB approach is risky. It’s much more optimal to attack running back early and try to scoop at least one top-10 option in the first two rounds. From there, keep a close eye on the position. There’s a good chance you can snag some value in Round 4 and then again in Round 6. Because of the scarcity at the position in the late rounds, you should aim to be sitting with four running backs by the time you hit double-digit rounds.
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3. Prioritize tight end, but don’t go overboard
Travis Kelce is very good. The Chiefs tight end is in the midst of a historic stretch where he’s finished as the No. 1 fantasy tight end in three straight seasons. But in order to draft himm you’re going to have to pony up a second-round pick. While that certainly isn’t an outrageous price tag for him, it puts you into a potential conundrum from a roster construction standpoint. Likewise, you’re probably also going to see George Kittle come off the board by the end of the second round.
There’s no denying the fantasy prowess of the Big 2 tight ends, but as someone like Mark Andrews or Darren Waller showed us last year, deeper players are capable of making the leap into fantasy elite territory. Andrews was a breakout candidate, but his ADP ultimately settled out in the 12th round as the No. 14 tight end. Likewise, Waller finished second in fantasy scoring at the position and was a 13th-round selection. In other words, you didn’t have to spend a premium pick on either player, and you were able to use that second-round pick on wideout or running back.
To be fair, waiting that long always comes with volatility this year given the overall depth at the position. However, there’s a very interesting wheelhouse of value between the sixth and eighth rounds. In this phase of your drafts, you’re likely to see Evan Engram, Tyler Higbee and Hunter Henry come off the board. Any one of these six players could finish as a top-three guy, but you won’t have to pay a top-three price for them. And if you miss on that bunch, you can always shoot for upside in the early double-digit rounds with Hayden Hurst, Noah Fant, Mike Gesicki or T.J. Hockenson.
4. Keep taking the value at wide receiver
Unlike running back and tight end, wideout is deep this year. Better yet, because running backs go early and often, good wide receivers get pushed down the board. There’s a very good chance you’ll be able to score a top 12 fantasy wide receiver in the third round. That’s a WR1 at a solid discount.
Don’t be afraid to take what the board is giving you. Let’s say you go running back in the first round and then score some value with Julio Jones in the second round. When you’re up in the third round, Chris Godwin is still on the board. That’s value. Take him. Now the fourth round rolls around and Odell Beckham is sitting there on a silver platter. Sure, you only have one running back, but you just can’t pass this up. Take him. On to the fifth round where Cooper Kupp is on the board at your pick. Your league just keeps handing you wide receiver value. Take him.
OK, so you might think you’re in a bit of a pickle, and you certainly could be drafting outside of your comfort zone with just one running back through the first five rounds. It certainly isn’t a conventional approach, but your team is absolutely loaded at wideout. The board presented you with value and you took it. In the process, you kicked off a modified zero-RB approach.
This isn’t a strategy I’d go into a draft planning to use, but it is one you should be prepared to use if the draft presents the opportunity. If you do go down this path, be prepared to absolutely hammer running back starting in the sixth round. Your goal should still be the same: to have four running backs by the start of the double-digit rounds. That means running backs in three of the next four rounds. With these picks, shoot for higher ceiling options to set yourself up for the most success.
5. Wait until the end of your draft to draft a quarterback
Seriously. Even in your home leagues where quarterbacks come off the board early, you can wait. You don’t need Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson to win your leagues this year, and the reason is relatively simple. The annual difference between the top fantasy quarterbacks and the best player you can get off waivers is much slimmer than what you’ll find at running back or wide receiver.
Don’t believe me? The difference between last year’s No. 2 quarterback, Dak Prescott, and the likely replacement range of Ryan Fitzpatrick at No. 18 was 98.2 fantasy points. Let’s compare that to running back, where Aaron Jones at No. 2 was 203.3 fantasy points ahead of the likely replacement range of Peyton Barber at No. 42. That’s a sizeable gap and shows the relative values of the top options at each position. Remember, it isn’t about how many points a player scores. It’s about how many more points he scores than the replacement value at his position that you’re likely to find on waivers.
Better yet, in today’s pass-happy NFL, there are legitimately 20 quarterbacks who are capable of putting up starter quality fantasy production. That means even if most of the teams in your league draft backups early, you’ll still be likely to land someone like Ryan Tannehill, Ben Roethlisberger or Baker Mayfield in the end of your draft.
