Dynasty Stock Watch: Fantasy News to Monitor (March 8)

Welcome to the Dynasty Stock Watch, a weekly article where I will address the changes in the dynasty fantasy football landscape. This will help us as managers stay current on the most recent headlines, while also allowing us to look at player and team trends to stay ahead of the curve.

There was a small flurry of activity this week around the NFL, with Tuesday’s franchise tag deadline and a few signings/extensions as well. So today, I’m turning my attention to some of the players who have been in the news this week and what the moves mean for their fantasy stock going forward.

Derek Carr, QB, New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr got to jump the line in free agency by virtues of his release from Las Vegas, and that led him to signing a contract with the Saints Tuesday. Carr should bring stability to the quarterback position in New Orleans, something the Saints have not had since Drew Brees’ retirement after 2020. Carr had produced four straight seasons over 4,000 passing yards before last season’s 3,522. He put up 24 passing touchdowns last year, his fourth straight season and eighth in nine years of 20-plus, though he hasn’t topped 30 since 2015. This consistency has allowed him to be a high-floor second quarterback in two-QB/superflex leagues most years, and I expect much of the same in 2023. 

All that said, Carr only brings a marginal fantasy upgrade for the playmakers in the Saints offense

Now, he likely only brings a marginal upgrade for the playmakers in the Saints’ offense when it comes to fantasy, as he is likely past the days of slinging it 30-35 times a game. I expect the Saints to be in the market for a complementary running back, with Alvin Kamara facing a potential suspension, and I expect the team to lean on the run game, the direction the offense has been trending over the past few seasons. Still, there will be fantasy production to be had through the air in this offense now that we know it will have a competent quarterback, so Chris Olave and (if he sticks around in New Orleans) Michael Thomas could find themselves in weekly starter territory.

Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks

Geno Smith rode his Comeback Player of the Year season in 2022 to the first big contract of his career, re-upping with the Seahawks this week. Smith, who threw all of 61 pass attempts in 2015-2020 combined, started a few games for the Seahawks in 2021 and then started every game in 2022, leading the league with a 69.8% completion percentage and getting the Seahawks into the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. It was expected to be a rebuilding year for the Seahawks, and instead Smith was fourth in the league with 30 touchdown passes and became only the second Seahawk ever to top 4,000 passing yards.

This impressive season also led to great fantasy success as he finished as the QB5 with 314.88 points —not bad for a guy dynasty managers could have acquired for free last summer. He had 10 top-12 weekly finishes and only finished outside the top 24 once (Week 2, when he faced a vaunted 49ers defense). I expect much of the same in 2023, the Seahawks are well stocked at the skill positions and have an improved offensive line after nailing the 2022 draft class. Smith sticking around in Seattle means we should see another productive season from the likes of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, and we should have no reservations about acquiring pieces of this Smith-led offense. 

Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Coming off his first 1,000-yard rushing season, Tony Pollard got the franchise tag from the Cowboys Tuesday. Many in the fantasy community had been clamoring for an increased workload for Pollard the last few years as he operated behind the increasingly inefficient Ezekiel Elliott. That happened last year, and he flourished, putting up 1,378 scrimmage yards and scoring 12 touchdowns (tying Zeke for the team lead). 

Now that we know Pollard will return to Dallas (and assuming he recovers from his playoff leg injury), I expect a similar year to the one that produced last year’s PPR RB8. Pollard had six top-10 weekly finishes, putting up 248.8 PPR points on the year. Pollard is enough of a receiver to be a threat in both facets of the game, helping him to a fantasy edge. Add in the potential for Elliott to be cut this offseason or at least see a greatly reduced role in 2023, and Pollard’s fantasy ceiling is top five.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders

Josh Jacobs was leaned on by his team more than any other running back in football in 2022 — per the FTN Player Utilization Tool, he commanded 83% of the Raiders’ backfield opportunities. Only Derrick Henry (82%) and Saquon Barkley (80%) even reached 80%, and only nine total backs topped 70%. Jacobs saw a league-leading 393 touches (Henry and Barkley were the only other backs over 350 and produced 2,053 scrimmage yards (the only player over 2,000). That helped Jacobs to his second Pro Bowl nod and his first All-Pro. 

Jacobs finished the season as the PPR RB3, behind only Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey. 

To no surprise this on-the-field success also led to fantasy success, Jacobs finished as the RB3 with 328.3 PPR points. He had nine top-10 weekly finishes and four weeks in the top three. With Jacobs back in Las Vegas on the franchise tag (so, not a long-term deal as of this writing) and no incumbent quarterback, I expect him to see a similar workload in 2023. And as long as Jacobs remains healthy (he’s missed only six games in four years and played all 17 in 2022), that should make Jacobs a rock-solid RB1 with overall top finisher upside.