NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Welcome to the Dynasty Stock Watch, a weekly article where I will address the constant changes in the dynasty landscape. This will help us as managers stay up on the most current headlines, while also allowing us to look at player and team trends to stay ahead of the curve.
This week, I want to turn our attention to the running back landscape. Below are some of the biggest free agents at the position, and how their fantasy outlook could improve (or not) this offseason.
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
Saquon Barkley is coming off a great year, with over 1,600 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns. That helped him to a PPR finish of RB5, with 284.0 fantasy points on the season. Two years removed from his ACL tear, Barkley looked the best he has since his RB1 finish in 2018. Barkley was one of only eight players with over 250 rushing attempts in 2022 (295). He also caught 57 of 76 targets, giving him more than 350 touches on the year. This type of workload is rare, and it’s hard to expect that heavy load to continue. Better efficiency would offset a decreased number of touches and help him hold top-five value, but that is asking a lot of a 26-year-old back entering his sixth season.
In dynasty, Barkley is still a hold, as he does have top-five potential, but that window is closing. If he ends up on a potent offense his perceived value will rise, and that will be the time to offload him. On the flip side, contending rosters would do well to stick with Barkley a little longer, because he does increase the chances at a championship this year.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
We saw the Raiders lean on Josh Jacobs in 2022, as he set career highs in rushing yards per game (97.2), scrimmage yards per game (120.8), touches (393), rushing yards (1,653) and scrimmage yards (2,053). He helped many fantasy teams have deep runs, finishing as the RB3 with 328.3 PPR points. Jacobs, Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb were the only players to top 300 carries — we’ll have to keep a close eye on Jacobs’ landing spot in free agency, as there are only some teams and spots that could offer that sort of workload. On the flip side, he is one of the youngest running backs in this free agent class at 25, which should give us a larger production window.
I am looking to acquire Jacobs if I can for a reasonable price. He has always shown a great dual-threat ability along with high-end potential — it was always a question of usage. We have seen the ceiling if given a significant role. Jacobs’ youth and recent production give him a shot at maybe the best landing spot in free agency, and the cost it would take to acquire him means whichever team does so is likely to give him a significant role. Act on Jacobs before we know his landing spot and plan on his value increasing in free agency.
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
Miles Sanders exploded in his second season in the Nick Sirianni offense, setting career highs in most rushing categories. His 259 carries were good for eighth in the league, and he created over 1,200 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns, a year after not even scoring one. This significant role has been something fantasy managers have been hoping for since Sanders’ rookie year. It led to an RB15 finish, with 216.7 PPR points on the year.
It was a “rising tide lifts all boats” situation, as the entire Eagles offense surged in 2022, and that should mean good things for Sanders’ stock if he returns to Philadelphia in 2023. Like Jacobs, he’s one of the younger backs on the market (Sanders turns 26 in May), but unlike Jacobs, I don’t have much faith in his long-term outlook. A landing spot outside of Philadelphia likely means a timeshare. And it even could if he stays with the Eagles — even in a return, I can see the Eagles adding another running back to the stable in the draft who could eat into Sanders’ production. As a result, I am looking to move on from Sanders if I can, I would prefer to add a quality draft pick or a combination of up-and-coming assets if possible.
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
After years of waiting, we saw the Tony Pollard explosion in 2022, as he started to overtake Ezekiel Elliott in the Dallas backfield. Pollard’s scrimmage yards per game increased from 70.4 in 2021 to 86.1 in 2022, en route to career highs in carries (193), rushing yards (1,007), rushing touchdowns (9), targets (55), receiving yards (361) and receiving touchdowns (3), tying his high with 39 receptions. He also had a career year as a fantasy asset, finishing as the RB8 with 248.8 PPR points.
There are rumors swirling already that Pollard may be franchise tagged by the Cowboys before free agency opens up, and that would probably be the best situation for him. He overtook Zeke in 2022, and there’s a chance the Cowboys cut bait on the veteran in light of his reduced production. This would open the door for Pollard to see a huge role on a team that already knows the best way to get him the ball. In other words, I am looking to acquire Pollard if possible … though I may wait and see if he is tagged – some managers may see this as a negative and move on for less than they would right now.
