Directional rushing update for Week 1

During the season we’re going to break down how different offenses are utilizing their running backs. As the year goes on, patterns begin to emerge that will allow us to anticipate and exploit mismatches between a defense and an offense that we’re targeting in fantasy football.

To kick off the season I’m going to identify three things to look for when you’re thinking about start/sit decisions or trade targets in the coming weeks. 

How much did the Kansas City Chiefs offensive line improve?

Over the offseason, our very own Brett Whitefield went through and ranked every offensive line as a unit. He’s calling for the Chiefs’ line to be one of the most improved units in the NFL this year. Check out our FTN Fantasy directional rushing tool:

Clyde Edwards-Helaire was used as their primary rusher last year. Part of the Chiefs success lies in their ability to keep offenses on their toes and, as you can see, they didn’t have much of a pattern. If he’s given a bit more space to work and those efficiency numbers begin to rise, Edwards-Helaire could be a potential league winner for you this year. Keep an eye on the backfield split, as well. If CEH were to miss time and they’re rushing the ball efficiently, we could be looking at a valuable waiver pickup.

Will Gus Edwards work as Baltimore’s RB1?

When you filter to running backs with at least 20 plays in a given direction, J.K. Dobbins has the top two yards per carry with left end and right up at 8.50 and 7.73, respectively. The question becomes how Gus Edwards will fill in for Dobbins now that the 2020 rookie is out for the season. 

With a sample of 50 plays, we can be pretty sure that Dobbins was successful on those plays and it wasn’t strictly noise. With a sample of just 22 plays for Edwards? I’m a little worried that we can’t draw strong conclusions. If Edwards can fill in and take over the same role that Dobbins had, he should be fine, but there are some reasons to be worried about two scenarios that eat into his value. One, they might be hesitant to even use him in that way leading to opportunities for another back on the roster. The other alternative is that he sees more of his touches in those zones and becomes less efficient overall thanks to his inability to perform in that role. 

Nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills 

The Buffalo backfield is intriguing for fantasy purposes. Zack Moss and Devin Singletary were being taken very close together in fantasy drafts all offseason. Now that we’re heading into Week 1, we’ll get a feel for how the backfield is split up. 

This is interesting because there’s a clear preference here with the Bills backfield on who runs in which direction. Moss outcarried Singletary in each right zone while the opposite was true on the left. I’m not sure if it means anything, but it would certainly be interesting to see if that trend continues. We could use that information to our advantage for matchup purposes down the road this season. 

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