Denver Broncos DVOA, Stats, & NFL Rankings

Denver Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. shouldn't be in starting fantasy lineups when the Broncos take on the division-rival Los Angeles Chargers in Week 16 on Thursday Night Football. Mims caught three passes for a season-high 105 yards in the Week 13 win over the Cleveland Browns thanks to a 93-yard touchdown reception. He followed that up by catching all four of his targets but for just 20 yards in last week's win over the Indianapolis Colts. The 22-year-old second-year wideout has big-play potential anytime he touches the football, but Denver has mostly been utilizing him on shorter pass plays, limiting his fantasy upside. Outside of his 100-yard game recently, Mims doesn't have more than four receptions or 49 yards in any of his 14 games in 2024. In the Week 6 loss to the Chargers, he didn't catch any of his three targets. Mims has no business being started by fantasy managers in the semifinals in most leagues.

Denver Broncos rookie wide receiver Devaughn Vele was starting to slowly become Denver's No. 2 wideout behind Courtland Sutton with 14 receptions on 18 targets for 185 yards and a touchdown in Weeks 10-12, but in two games since then, he's completely disappeared. In wins over the Browns and Colts in Weeks 13 and 15, Vele has disappeared, catching one of five targets for 16 yards. The seventh-round pass-catcher has a bright future if he remains paired with quarterback Bo Nix for years to come in Denver, but the last two games were a reminder that it's hard to trust anyone not named Sutton in this offense. In Week 16 against the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday night, Vele won't come recommended as a flex play for fantasy managers in the playoffs. Vele had four catches on six targets for 78 yards against the Bolts in the Week 6 loss. That might be his ceiling on Thursday evening.

Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton has been the WR12 with an average of 15.2 half-PPR points in the last five weeks thanks to 24 receptions on 36 targets for 309 yards and three touchdowns. Because of how often rookie QB Bo Nix targets Sutton -- his 113 targets on the year rank ninth among receivers -- he's become a must-start in fantasy lineups after the Broncos offense started the year off sluggish. He'll be facing a Los Angeles Chargers defense on Thursday night in Week 16 that has allowed the fifth-most half-PPR points per game to opposing pass-catchers in the last five weeks, including a league-high eight touchdowns allowed to receivers. In the first meeting with the Bolts on Oct. 13, Sutton caught four of six targets for 53 yards and a touchdown. Sutton has a pretty safe fantasy floor at this point and is on the WR1/2 borderline this week.

Denver Broncos rookie running back Audric Estime will inevitably see the field more in Week 16 on Thursday Night Football against the division-rival Los Angeles Chargers with Jaleel McLaughlin (quadriceps) ruled out. But will it be enough of a role to make him flex-worthy for fantasy managers in semifinal matchups in most leagues? Probably not. Estime and Javonte Williams will most likely split the backfield touches pretty evenly, and Denver's rushing game has been a weak point of the offense all year long. Meanwhile, the Chargers defense has only allowed five total touchdowns to RBs all year and the sixth-fewest half-PPR points per game. The 21-year-old Estime is still searching for his first NFL touchdown while averaging 4.4 yards per carry on 46 attempts through 10 games. Estime should stay on benches in what is expected to be a low-scoring Thursday night contest.

Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams could very well lead Denver's backfield in the Week 16 divisional game on Thursday night against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 16 after Jaleel McLaughlin (quadriceps) being ruled out. However, Williams could be splitting touches pretty evenly with rookie Audric Estime, and the matchup is not a friendly one on a short week. On top of it, the 24-year-old has done very little all year for fantasy managers to give him the benefit of the doubt. His ineffectiveness (career-low 3.5 yards per carry) led the Broncos to go with more of a committee backfield that had favored McLaughlin in recent weeks. The Chargers defense isn't afraid to give up yards to opposing ground games, but they've allowed the sixth-fewest half-PPR points to RBs, including only five total TDs. If Denver is going to have success in this matchup, it's more likely to come via Bo Nix's arm.