Conference Championship NFL Player Props of the Week

After a couple weeks of great NFL playoff matches, there are only four teams remaining. Luckily for us, it truly does seem like one of those situations where the four best teams are left. In this article, I’ll be dropping two of my favorite player props for Conference Championship weekend. 

The 49ers are coming into this game on somewhat of a historic run, with Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy leading them through the playoffs. Despite being their third-string quarterback, it certainly seems like Purdy has given the 49ers the best chance of winning this season, though he hasn’t quite faced a team like the Eagles. One of the most interesting things to follow in this matchup will be the 49ers WRs vs. the Eagles secondary. Darius Slay, James Bradberry and C.J. Gardner-Johnson make up the strongest secondary in the NFL, but we have to remember this 49ers offense isn’t traditional. They generate the most YAC out of any team in the NFL, and I expect plenty of short passes to Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle, which will test their tackling ability just as much as their traditional coverage. 

Here are my favorite props from this game.

Fred Warner Over 7.5 Tackles + Assists

(-140, BetMGM)

A huge difference in this week’s matchup is the 49ers’ linebacker core, and just how much better it is than the Giants group the Eagles faced last week. While the Eagles have the undisputed strongest secondary in football, the 49ers have the strongest linebacker core with Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw. Deciding which one to take for props is hard, but I’ll have to side with Warner here. Jalen Hurts is projected for over 10 rush attempts, and while I expect the Eagles traditional run game to be less involved, Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott should combine for another 15-20 carries. Warner will be playing further back due to his coverage abilities, but I expect him to rack up the assists against the opposing rush game. He will also have more coverage tackle opportunities than almost any other linebacker in the NFL.

The Niners’ D-line vs. Eagles’ O-line will be a highly entertaining matchup in the trenches, but having that additional layer of production to slow down Hurts and Sanders rushing, along with giving Dallas Goedert his toughest matchup of the season will be huge in this game. My initial thought is that the Eagles are going to be much more dependent on their wide receivers winning on the outside, which isn’t the worst plan when you have A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Goedert has been very important for the Eagles recently, and if they continue to aggressively target him, that’s good for our Warner props. 

That brings me to the second prop:

A.J. Brown Over 70.5 Receiving Yards

(-115, BetMGM)

While Deommodore Lenoir has been playing the best ball of his career recently, and Charvarius Ward is a very good corner, I think A.J. Brown probably has the best matchup here. The best spot to beat the 49ers all year long has been deep over the middle, and I’m not sure there’s a better receiver to take advantage of that than Brown. I’ve said plenty of good things about Talanoa Hufanga this season, but his natural ball-hawking abilities and aggression have led to some blown coverages over the middle. Additionally, Brown has the pure speed to win downfield vertically, which we’ve seen CeeDee Lamb and DK Metcalf do in back-to-back weeks. Brown has 28 deep targets (20-plus yards), per our advanced receiving stats, so the downfield usage is clearly there. We saw how frustrated Brown was by his lack of usage last season, and I’m expecting the Eagles to remedy that here.