Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Upside is king in fantasy football, but plenty of managers like to mix in high-floor options to limit their team’s risk. But, what is a high-floor option? Are those players always as safe as they seem?
Here, I’ll explain why the floor for these quarterbacks and running backs might actually be a lot lower than drafters are accounting for. This shouldn’t be interchangeable with a “do not draft” list, but it should shed light on the downside that fantasy managers can become blind to when searching for upside or stability.
(ADPs based on FTNFantasy’s ADP Report)
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
(57th overall, QB5)
Joe Burrow threw for over 4,600 yards and 34 touchdowns last season as he took the NFL by storm and led the upstart Bengals to the Super Bowl. Still, his incredible season only resulted in a QB8 finish overall and a QB10 finish in fantasy points per game.
Burrow is likely being drafted at his ceiling, considering he put up a 6.5% TD rate – a mark that ranked top 20 in the NFL over the last five seasons – and he doesn’t project to add to his 10 rushing yards per game.
With the Bengals’ slow-paced offense – 26th in plays and 19th in pass rate in 2021 – and a non-existent rushing baseline, Burrow managers will be relying on more astronomical touchdown efficiency. While it’s certainly possible, any dip in touchdown rate could send Burrow from a low-end QB1 to a QB2. That’s not the floor you’d expect when taking a quarterback in the fifth round.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
(96th overall, QB13)
Aaron Rodgers has always been one of the safest bets in fantasy football. He’s ranked top 10 in points per game among quarterbacks in seven of the last eight seasons, and he’s finished top six in each of the last two. Now, without Davante Adams, Rodgers’ expectations – and fantasy floor – are lower than they’ve been in years.
His ADP reflects Davante’s departure, and there aren’t a ton of experts promoting his upside, but he’s still generally seen as a safe, late option for those who pass on the elite fantasy quarterbacks. Is he a safe option, though?
Recent history and his impressive career touchdown rate of 6.3% say yes, but this is arguably the weakest wide receiver corps he’s ever had in Green Bay. Plus, in five games without Adams since 2018, Rodgers averages five fewer pass attempts per game, and the Packers throw the ball at a lower rate.
There could also be a greater focus on the running game this year with Green Bay’s two-headed monster of AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones. Jones is a great receiving back, but he’s not Adams, and it’s unlikely that anyone on the roster can replace Adams’ red-zone chemistry with Rodgers.
A weak receiving corps, a great running back duo and a lack of rushing upside makes Aaron Rodgers’ floor a bit less stable than it’s been in recent years.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
(7th overall, RB4)
Derrick Henry’s efficiency has dropped significantly over the last few seasons, especially in 2021, when his yards per carry plummeted by more than a yard behind a declining offensive line. Without A.J. Brown on the outside, opposing defenses can once again stack the box and dare Ryan Tannehill to beat them.
In 2020, Henry faced a stacked box (8+ defenders) on 34% of his rushing attempts and averaged 5.5 yards per attempt. In 2021, the loaded boxes increased to 39% of his attempts while the yards per carry decreased to 3.8.
We know he doesn’t see the same receiving work as some other highly-drafted backs, so another decrease in rushing efficiency would significantly lower his fantasy floor. It doesn’t help that the Titans re-signed Dontrell Hilliard and drafted Hassan Haskins, perhaps hinting at a lighter workload for Henry.
Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders
(51st overall, RB22)
Being skeptical of Antonio Gibson has become mainstream, but I think it’s warranted. J.D. McKissic is back to handle pass-catching duties, and the Commanders drafted Alabama running back Brian Robinson in the third round of the NFL Draft.
Buzz out of the Commanders camp suggests Robinson could be used in short-yardage and goal-line situations, which would limit Gibson to much less valuable carries between the 20s. That’s a big no from me in the fifth round. Plus, he coughed up a fumble in Washington’s preseason opener. If Gibson’s well-documented fumbling problems continue, he could find himself in the dog house and be relegated to the real bench and your fantasy bench all season.
Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers
(55th overall, RB24)
Like Henry, Elijah Mitchell doesn’t offer a receiving baseline. He caught 19 balls in 11 games as a rookie after averaging 1.2 catches per game in college. On the ground, he was rock solid, but Deebo Samuel’s emergence in the running game hindered Mitchell’s touchdown upside and likely will again to some extent in 2022.
Now, Trey Lance will step in at quarterback and probably take another handful of carries away from the second-year back, too. Mitchell is also missing significant time in training camp due to a hamstring injury, which could open the door for other San Francisco running backs to impress the coaching staff and carve out a role in the offense.
Without consistent receiving work and goal-line opportunities, the former sixth-rounder will need to rack up yards in a crowded backfield. He should be the lead back for the 49ers, but that may not lead to a high floor in an offense with better playmakers and a mobile quarterback.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs
(76th overall, RB26)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s expectations have dropped each year, and he’s gone from first-round pick to second-round pick to seventh-round pick in fantasy drafts in 2022. Despite his starter status in a great offense, CEH has failed to crack the top 20 in points per game in either of his first two seasons.
Now, he’s competing for touches in what appears to be a more ambiguous running back room. Jerick McKinnon is back after an impressive run in the playoffs last season, Ronald Jones could make the team depending on his camp performance and everyone who’s anyone is beating the drum for rookie Isiah Pacheco.
“Starting running back for the Chiefs” is a tantalizing title for fantasy managers, but Clyde’s floor could be that of a mid-season drop candidate this year. It’s not unreasonable to think he loses his job in 2022 or at least splits work more than he has in past years.
Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills
(83rd overall, RB29)
Devin Singletary ran the fourth-most routes of any running back in the NFL but recorded the second-lowest PFF receiving grade at the position. Yikes. As a result, the Buffalo Bills searched for a receiving back this offseason.
They attempted to sign J.D. McKissic and Chase Edmonds but ultimately landed on drafting Georgia’s James Cook, whose 83.4 receiving grade puts Singletary’s 39.7 to shame. Because Singletary will inevitably see less receiving work, he’ll need more work or better efficiency on the ground to be relevant. Unfortunately, Cook can run too, Zack Moss is still around and Josh Allen steals goal-line opportunities away.
Despite being drafted as the RB29, there’s a chance Singletary is completely unstartable this season.
Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos
(104th overall, RB37)
Melvin Gordon’s main contribution to fantasy football this season – barring any injuries – will be to frustrate Javonte Williams’ managers. Of course, if Williams misses time, Gordon’s floor and ceiling get a major boost, but assuming everyone stays healthy, he may be rendered useless at some point.
The general consensus is that Gordon will play second fiddle to Javonte, but he’ll still have a large enough piece of the pie to contribute in real life and a little bit in fantasy football. But what if he doesn’t have a standalone role?
Williams was an absolute beast on limited touches last season – he forced the most missed tackles per rush in the NFL – and the Broncos have their sights set on the Super Bowl now with Russell Wilson in town. It’s very possible that Williams takes full control of the backfield at some point, leaving Melvin Gordon without any role for fantasy.
