Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp openings, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Derek Brown, profile their favorite Booms, Busts, Breakouts and Bets for every NFL team. Giddy up, gamers. Today’s topic: The Fightin’ Footballs.
Fantasy Football Booms – Football Team
Terry McLaurin, WR
McLaurin is a budding NFL superstar. Before he popped up on the Week 12 injury report, he was on his way to establishing himself as a top-flight wide receiver, despite subpar quarterbacking. In Weeks 1-11, McLaurin ranked 20th in yards per route run (2.22), tied with A.J. Brown, D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson. He was the WR10 in fantasy points per game during that span, averaging 87.1 receiving yards per game. After the ankle injuries, his effectiveness and statistics cratered. In Weeks 12-17, he ranked 106th in yards per route run (1.2), tied with Mack Hollins. Over those final four games, he was the WR51 in fantasy points per game, averaging 49.4 receiving yards per game.
Provided we get a fully healthy season from McLaurin with a bearded football-slinging magician under center, its wheels up for his fantasy stock. McLaurin will be the leading receiver on an offense that will finish inside the top 10 in neutral-script pace and passing rate in 2021. While many will balk at his WR13 (33.8 overall) draft position, McLaurin showed last year that he has the talent to outplay that ADP. — Derek Brown
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB
From first-day-of-school satire to cicada beard entanglements, the social media maven has delighted his faithful followers with a number of chuckle-worthy gems. Similar to his enthusiastic brand of play, Fitzpatrick bursts with endless joy. Entering his 17th season and playing for his ninth franchise, the NFL globetrotter is set up to possibly log the finest year of his career. McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, Logan Thomas, Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic comprise a talented arsenal. The group isn’t on the same plane as what he had in Tampa 2017-2018, but it’s not far off. Phenomenal on deep chucks (No. 2 in deep completion percentage) and on play action (87.2 adjusted completion percentage) last season with Miami, he should mesh instantly with Washington’s abundant speedy playmakers.
Yes, he’ll swallow a grenade on occasion — it’s in his reckless nature — but his sneaky duality and overall aggressiveness imply 27-plus total TDs are possible. Most importantly, with only Taylor Heinicke and Kyle Allen behind him, he won’t need to look over his shoulder. Sporting a QB23 ADP (152.40 overall), ‘The Lorax’ is one of fantasy’s most underpriced signal callers. — Brad Evans
2021 Fantasy Football Busts – Football Team
J.D. McKissic, RB
With ‘Alligator’ Alex Smith no longer in the picture and Gibson’s role as a pass catcher expected to expand, McKissic’s success as a reliable week-to-week PPR flexer has presumably passed. If he comes close to matching his 19.2 target percentage (110 total targets) from 2020, Porky Pig will suddenly wear pants. In other words, fat chance. Most drafters have accepted this reality, but don’t be that person who simply picks someone based on recency bias. He’ll be involved and will have his occasional moments in the spotlight, but 50-55 receptions seem more realistic. And, honestly, that could be a reach. In the end, it’s nutty to think he’s going in the same tier as Latavius Murray, Devin Singletary and Darrell Henderson. — Brad Evans
Logan Thomas, TE
If you believe targets are earned (they are), then Thomas’ outlook this season after a breakout 2020 should shake any faith you have in him. Competing with an injured Terry McLaurin, Isaiah Wright, J.D. McKissic, Cam Sims and Steven Sims and company, Thomas had no issues finishing third (110) among tight ends in targets and seventh in target share (19.2%). Volume is king in fantasy, but Thomas did very little to deserve it when we peer at his underlying efficiency metrics. Last season, he finished 31st in yard per route run (1.16) and 26th in fantasy points per route run. With McLaurin healthy and the additions of Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown, Thomas will have talented receivers to compete with this year. However, the chances of him repeating last year’s perfect storm scenario for targets are slim. His current TE10 ADP is built upon the strength of last year and not his current situation. Unless he falls into the TE15-17 range (he won’t), I’ll continue to pay up or punt the position further down the road in drafts. — Derek Brown
Fantasy Football Breakouts for the Football Team
Antonio Gibson, RB
Much like Terry McLaurin, before Gibson was derailed by injury (toe), he was on the fast track to superstardom. In Weeks 1-12, Gibson was the RB10 in fantasy points per game. A middle-of-the-road offensive line wasn’t stopping him front piling up chunk plays and juking defenders out of their cleats. In his first 12 games, he ranked 10th in missed tackles forced (30) and ninth in 15-yard runs. Gibson enters this year with a robust rookie campaign of running back season.
Ron Rivera allowing Gibson to morph into Washington’s Christian McCaffrey is the fever dream. While that probably isn’t a likely outcome, Gibson has still shown enough to warrant more targets. Last year among 57 running backs with 15 or more targets, he was 14th in yards per route run. Gibson is an easy player to target aggressively in drafts considering his RB14 (18.7 overall) ADP. It won’t shock me if Gibson finishes the season as a top-five running back in fantasy football. — Derek Brown
Antonio Gibson, RB
Whenever Gibson’s name is mentioned in this writer’s presence, images of white sand beaches, crystal clear blue water, frolicking puppy dogs and dancing tequila bottles pop into my head. It’s my happy place. If the rumors are true his route per game are about to spike (11.6 per game in 2020, RB38), his production is bound to climb. Remember, he spent much of last year adjusting to full-time work as a RB, a nearly foreign position to the then rookie after years of underside at Memphis. Despite the learning curve he still compiled 1,042 combined yards and 11 total touchdowns on just 47.3% of the opportunity share. Remarkable.
The experience gained should do Gibson wonders in his sophomore season. Match that with a sturdy offensive line and supportive defense which should lead to positive game scripts late in games, and he could wind up inside the position’s top-6 when the regular season wraps. His tackle-shaking skills (21.7 MT% in ‘20) and downhill churn are unmistakably there. Bank on a monumental step forward. — Brad Evans
Best Bets for the Football Team 2021
(Use the FTN Prop Shop to uncover the best lines across legal sportsbooks)
Washington to Win the NFC East (+275, William Hill)
Washington can repeat as division champions with an improved offense and a defense that ranked third in DVOA last year. — Derek Brown
Washington OVER 8 wins (-135, BetMGM)
The above wager Derek outlined, admittedly, is my favorite, but the Fighting Footballs are a strong candidate for 9-plus wins based on across-the-board personnel alone. — Brad Evans
