Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp openings, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Derek Brown, profile their favorite Booms, Busts, Breakouts and Bets for every NFL team. Giddy up, gamers. Today’s topic: The Miami Dolphins.
Fantasy Football Booms – Dolphins
Myles Gaskin, RB
Myles Gaskin enters the season looking to reprise his workhorse role with Miami. The only competition the Dolphins brought in to challenge Gaskin are the uninspiring Malcolm Brown and seventh-round pick Gerrid Doaks.
When Gaskin wasn’t shelved by an MCL sprain or the Reserve/COVID-19 List, he was immensely productive in a three-down role. Shouldering the load in South Beach, Gaskin ranked 16th in evaded tackles (50) in only 10 games. His abilities as a receiver were even more impressive as he ranked third among all running backs with 25 or more targets in yards per route run (1.87) behind only Alvin Kamara and James White.
Even at his RB22 (45.8 overall) cost in early best ball drafts, there’s still meat on the bone for a player that finished RB13 in fantasy points per game (16.4) last season. — Derek Brown
DeVante Parker, WR
Gaskin is a fantastic selection, but DeVante Parker shouldn’t be overlooked. Available at a discounted cost (109.5 ADP, WR47) with Waddle and Will Fuller added, he’s already been unfairly written off by best ball drafters. On the surface, he’s a legit Rodney Dangerfield All-Star, a player who deserves more respect.
Battling through injuries, a nasty case of the dropsies and Tua Tagovailoa’s elongated learning curve last season, Parker posted laudable numbers in several categories. He finished No. 20 in completed air yards, No. 18 in contested catch rate and No. 8 in total end-zone targets (13 in 14 games). Yes, it’s probable his 21.3% target rate could diminish, but less may be more for the 28-year-old. Recall in his breakout 2019 campaign, he actually averaged roughly the same number of targets as he did last year (8.0 vs. 7.4). In the end, a season in the range of 70-900-7 is quite buyable, a line, if achieved, that would easily turn a tidy profit. — Brad Evans
2021 Fantasy Football Busts – Dolphins
Jaylen Waddle, WR
Unlike his former college teammate, DeVonta Smith, the path to consistent week-to-week targets is more complex for Jaylen Waddle. His twitch, quick cuts and overall shiftiness are indicative of an adrenaline-infused prairie dog, but with Parker, Fuller, Mike Gesicki and Gaskin all eating into the workload, one has to wonder how much meat will be left on the bone.
Unquestionably, the rookie will have his moments operating primarily out of the slot. His wiggle and explosiveness showcased at Alabama landed him inside the top-six a season ago in yards after the catch per reception (10.1). Hopefully with his ankle problems long in the past, his future is blindingly bright. Still, he’s probably Laviska Shenault 2020 (58-600-5) at best.
In other words, his 725.5 receiving yards prop at PointsBet commands a hammer on the under. Additionally, at his WR49 price point (116.0 overall) he’s slightly overvalued. — Brad Evans
Mike Gesicki, TE
Despite finishing as the TE9 in PPR last season, Mike Gesicki has all the trappings of a bust for 2021. Last season, Gesicki’s production was volume-driven, and his underlying efficiency metrics scream that if the volume takes a plunge, his fantasy value will as well. The arrivals of Jaylen Waddle and Hunter Long spell big trouble for the glorified slot wide receiver (67.4% slot, 2020).
Last year, Gesicki ran the 10th-most routes (440) and finished with the 12th-most targets (85) among tight ends. Unfortunately for Miami’s dollar store version of Jimmy Graham, he didn’t do much with the high usage, ranking 40th out of 49 tight ends with 25 or more targets in yards after the catch per reception (3.3). Waddle can push Gesicki out of the slot where he’ll be left to contend for inline snaps with the Dolphins’ newly minted third-round pick Hunter Long.
Gesicki’s TE11 (116.7) feels rich for a player who now has to compete for targets with Waddle, Long and speedster Will Fuller. — Derek Brown
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Fantasy Football Breakouts for the Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa, QB
After tossing Tua Tagovailoa to the wolves in his rookie season, Miami’s front office has gone all-in on surrounding him with weapons. Throwing to a receiving depth chart last year consisted of DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, Lynn Bowden Jr., Mike Gesicki, Jakeem Grant and Mack Hollins was like asking someone to fend off a zombie horde with nothing but a plastic spork and their will to live.
This year the Dolphins have equipped him with a pair of deep speed buzzsaws in Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle who can carve up any secondary. Old stalwarts DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki, along with new hire Hunter Long, will lead the way in the red zone.
His overall numbers might not have been pretty, but he ranked third in catchable pass rate (80.3%) last year. With the improvements made around him, Tagovailoa could be the best point guard Miami has seen since Tim Hardaway and enjoy a breakout season. — Derek Brown
Tua Tagovailoa, QB
Some believe Tua is the next Steve Young. Some also believe Leonardo DiCaprio is unrecognizable in a clearly recognizable photo of the actor from his latest movie shoot. Whatever side you’re on, the sophomore passer has the necessary environment around him to advance his game forward. Upgrades at receiver combined with reliable holdovers arrow to a potential breakthrough, though, given the QB positions bottomless depth, more for the 2QB or superflex crowd.
As DB outlined above, his catchable target rate was outstanding, but struggles across the board in various completion percentage categories paint a less rosy picture. His 5.8 adjusted yards per attempt mark (QB30) must also increase substantially. Toss in Miami’s ascending defense and his ceiling may only be 22-24 TDs with 3700-4000 yards, even over a 17-game slate. Still, the potential to make this writer look like a nincompoop is palpable. — Brad Evans
Best Bets for the Dolphins 2021
(Use the FTN Prop Shop to uncover the best lines across legal sportsbooks)
Miami Dolphins to make the playoffs (+130, DraftKings)
After falling one win short last year of the postseason, the Dolphins have made upgrades on both sides of the ball that could earn them their first postseason berth since 2016. — Derek Brown
Miami Dolphins to make the playoffs (+130, DraftKings)
Brian Flores is at the helm of a rocket ship. Aiming for more teamwide balance, he has a product quite capable of getting over the hump and into the second season. At +130, the above offering is one heck of a value. — Brad Evans
