Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Underdog Fantasy has launched the largest best ball tournament in history, featuring 451,200 entries and $10 million in total prizes. 30% of the prize pool will be split among three entries, including $2 million to first, $1 million to second and $1 million to the highest-scoring team in the regular season (Weeks 1-14). Drafts consist of 12-person lobbies with 18 rounds.
That means you need to nail your picks. Stacks and Week 17 correlation drive the average draft position on Underdog. These ADPs are a lot different from traditional redraft platforms such as Sleeper. In this article, I will highlight a few players whose ADPs are vastly different in best ball and redraft. You can track ADPs using the Underdog and Sleeper tool on FTN Fantasy. Sign up for Underdog Fantasy with promo code “FTN” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
(Underdog ADP: 74.2, Sleeper ADP: 52.7)
Joe Burrow put the league on notice in his second season, leading the Bengals to their first Super Bowl appearance since 1989. He won Comeback Player of the Year after a triumphant return from an ACL and MCL tear in 2020. Burrow was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league, finishing first in completion rate (70.4%), yards per pass attempt (8.9), and passing grade from a clean pocket (94.5). He was also PFF’s highest-graded passer among 44 quarterbacks with at least a hundred dropbacks. Burrow finished as a top-10 QB last season (QB9), mainly due to his strong finish to end the season. After averaging 20.1 fantasy points in Weeks 1-15 (QB12), Burrow combined for 88 in his last two games finishing as the overall QB1 in both weeks. He is priced much closer to his ceiling on Sleeper (QB5), influenced by the Bengals’ postseason run. Burrow is limited as a rusher but should take another step forward after an entire season removed from knee surgery, an improved offensive line and one of the league’s best trios of wide receivers at his disposal.
Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers
(Underdog ADP: 75.1, Sleeper ADP: 104.1)
The 49ers traded three first-round picks to move up nine spots and select Trey Lance with the fifth overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft. In his lone full season at NDSU, Lance led the Bisons to a 16-0 record and the 2019 NCAA Division I Championship. He threw for 2,786 yards, 28 touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also rushed for 1,100 yards, finding pay dirt 14 times. Despite giving up significant draft capital to acquire Lance, the 49ers opted to redshirt the rookie for most of the 2021 season. He appeared in just three and a half games but flashed game-breaking upside in a limited sample. Lance was thrust into the flames in Week 4 after Jimmy Garoppolo was ruled out at halftime with a calf injury. He threw for 150 yards and two touchdowns while adding 41 yards on the ground. Lance averaged over 220 passing yards and 60 rushing yards in two games as a starter. Lance’s Konami Code ability as a rusher makes him the perfect late-round quarterback on Sleeper. He is priced much closer to his ceiling on Underdog at the sixth-/seventh-round turn (QB8).
David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears
(Underdog ADP: 56.5, Sleeper ADP: 35.7)
David Montgomery has been one of the few workhorse running backs since entering the league in 2019. He’s had at least 265 touches and 1,000 scrimmage yards in each of the last three seasons and averaged the eighth-most touches per game among running backs in 2021. Montgomery finished just inside the top-20 running backs last season (RB19) after missing four games with a knee injury. He enters a critical year in 2022, playing in the final year of his contract and a new coaching staff. The new regime has no ties to Montgomery, and there is no telling how they manage his workload. Reports from training camp suggest second-year running should see Khalil Herbert see significant work in the backfield. Herbert filled in admirably for Montgomery, averaging 21.75 and 97 yards from scrimmage in four games as the starter. Montgomery profiles as a dead zone running vaulted up draft boards due to projected volume. He is going in the third round on Sleeper but is two rounds cheaper on Underdog.
Ken Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks
(Underdog ADP: 109.3, Sleeper ADP: 70.2)
After trading away Russell Wilson, the Seahawks have made no secret of wanting to establish the run. With the 41st pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, the team selected Ken Walker out of Michigan State. Last season, Walker rushed for 1,636 yards and 18 touchdowns while leading all of college football in forced missed tackles (89). Walker was arguably the best pure rusher in the class, with elite speed, clocking in at a 4.38-second 40-yard-dash at the NFL combine. He was the second running back off the board, just five picks after Breece Hall. Walker’s ADP has steadily declined after reports suggested that Rashaad Penny is the early favorite to lead the Seahawks backfield and could see upward of 20 carries a game. Penny closed the season strong, leading all running backs in touches (92) and yards (692) in the season’s final five games. His 6.3 yards per carry and 4.5 yards after contact per carry ranked first among all backs with at least 50 carries. Like most of his career, Penny had trouble staying on the field, missing seven games while dealing with multiple leg injuries. Since entering the league in 2018, Penny has appeared in only 37 out of a possible 67 games. The Seahawks allowed Penny to test the free agency market before re-signing him to a one-year, $5.8 million contract. Although Penny may be the Week 1 starter, it is unlikely he will remain healthy for the entire season. Walker is a sixth-round pick on Sleeper but is available in the double-digit rounds on Underdog.
Gabe Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills
(Underdog ADP: 43.7, Sleeper ADP: 83.6)
Gabe Davis has been one of the most polarizing players of the offseason as he enters his third season in the NFL. With the departure of Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley, Davis should see plenty of opportunities with 199 targets, 31.9% target share and 1,820 air yards up for grabs in Buffalo. After starting just four games last season, Davis is entrenched as the WR2 in a Bills offense that ranked top-five in scoring and pass attempts in 2021. The last time Davis was on the field, he erupted for eight receptions on 10 targets for 201 yards and four touchdowns. He became the first player to catch four touchdowns in a playoff game. Davis has been no stranger when it comes to finding the end zone, scoring 13 times in 15 career starts. There is a significant disparity in Davis’ ADP in Underdog and Sleeper. Drafters on Underdog are willing to take Davis much earlier in order to lock up the coveted Bills stack and gain exposure to their Week 17 matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Kadarius Toney, WR, New York Giants
(Underdog ADP: 76.9, Sleeper ADP: 116.7)
Kadarius Toney was an intriguing prospect entering the draft, primarily used as a gadget player at Florida. In his senior season, Toney caught 70 passes for 984 yards and ten touchdowns. He also played a role in the rushing department, carrying the ball 19 times for 161 yards and one touchdown. After trading back nine spots with the Bears, the Giants selected Toney with the 20th pick of the 2021 NFL Draft. On the surface, Toney had a quiet rookie season, catching just 39 passes for 420 yards with no touchdowns. However, he made the most of his opportunities, leading the Giants in target share (20%) in games he saw over 30% of the offensive snaps. Toney was 10th in targets per route run and the only rookie outside Ja’Marr Chase to average over 2.0 yards per route run (2.14) last season. Most of his production came from Weeks 4-5, where he combined for 16 catches on 22 targets and 267 yards. Toney’s two-game stretch and elite underlying metrics have made him a popular breakout candidate entering his second season. He has tremendous upside and should benefit from former Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll as the new head coach. Drafters on Underdog are buying into the hype and willing to take Toney at the top of the seventh round. He is going much later on Sleeper, available in the double-digit rounds. The main concern for Toney is his ability to stay healthy and avoid off-field issues. If Toney can play through an entire season, he has leaguing winning potential.
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers
(Underdog ADP: 52.2, Sleeper ADP: 38.2)
George Kittle finished as a top-five tight end last season (TE4) despite missing three games with a knee injury. He caught 71 passes on 94 targets for 910 yards and a career-high six touchdowns in 14 games. It was the third consecutive season Kittle missed significant time due to an injury (13 total games). Since entering the league in 2017, he’s only played an entire season once. He was a volatile player in 2021, failing to eclipse double-digit fantasy points in half of his starts. Still, Kittle was one of the few separators at tight end, leading the position in snap share (92.7%), PFF grade (91.2), and yards per route run (2.35). He had at least 100 receiving yards and a touchdown in three games. There are a lot of question marks surrounding Kittle in 2022, with likely a new quarterback under center. In his lone game with Trey Lance, he caught two of three targets for 21 yards and no touchdowns. Although his positional rank is separated by just one spot on Underdog and Sleeper, his ADP is over a round apart.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Detroit Lions
(Underdog ADP: 90.5, Sleeper ADP: 62.1)
T.J. Hockenson has had high expectations after being selected by the Detroit Lions with the eighth overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft. He came out of the gate hot, catching six passes for 131 yards and a touchdown in his first game as a pro. Hockenson failed to build off his Week 1 outing, catching just 26 passes for 236 yards and one touchdown the rest of his rookie season. He broke out in his second season with 67 receptions for 723 yards and six touchdowns. With the departure of Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones last offseason, Hockenson was set up for a career year in 2021. He was a top-three tight end for the first 13 weeks, trailing only Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. Unfortunately, his season was cut short after a hand injury forced him to miss the final five games. Next season, he will face much greater target competition after the Lions signed DJ Chark in free agency and drafted Jameson Williams with the 12th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Drafters on Underdog are much more willing to punt the tight end position, letting Hockenson fall to the eighth round. Best ball devalues tight ends by allowing users to draft multiple players at the position and not having to choose who to start week-to-week. He becomes more of a priority in redraft platforms such as Sleeper and is currently going at the sixth to seventh-round turn as the TE6.
