Betting NFL Props Using Math: Week 3

The goal of this article is, of course, to provide winning picks. However, it’s also to provide a blueprint on how to cleverly bet props with math.

After a lackluster performance in Week 1, I switched things up for Week 2 and had a lot of success – leaning into my understanding of correlation, let’s see if we can find more same game parlays that under-estimate the correlation effect.

Austin Ekeler anytime TD, over 44.5 rushing yards, & over 34.5 receiving yards 

(+310 DK Sportsbook, 1 unit)

I’ve discussed Ekeler on every show and in every article so far this week, so why stop now? The Chiefs’ defense is swiss cheese against the run and the game script should be ideal for play volume and pass volume. Ekeler has 7 red zone carries already, so a TD is extremely likely if he hits the overs.

Jared Cook anytime TD & 3+ receptions

(+370 DK Sportsbook, 1 unit)

Play volume, play volume, play volume. I’m high on the Chargers this week and Cook’s props just seem too low. Cook has a 15% target share (13 targets) in two games and is a TD machine. He had one called back last week, and scored on 16.8% of his targets in the past two seasons. 

If the receptions are there, chances are at least one of them is caught in the end zone.

Justin Fields over 210.5 passing yards, Allen Robinson over 59.5 receiving yards, & Darnell Mooney over 38.5 receiving yards 

(+316 FD Sportsbook, 2 units)

I love this bet. All of these lines are significantly dependent on the uncertainty surrounding Justin Fields in his first NFL start. How will he perform? Will Nagy trust him enough to remove the training wheels?

The kicker is this – the uncertainty gives Fields a wide range of outcomes, which in turn makes the correlation of this bet extremely powerful. If Fields outperforms implied expectations, these receiving yard lines are significantly too low. I’m betting on Fields to perform, and for a game script that forces Nagy’s hand to let Fields do his thing even if Nagy doesn’t choose to do so from the get-go.

Russell Wilson 3+ TD passes, Tyler Lockett anytime TD, & DK Metcalf anytime TD 

(+370 DK Sportsbook, 1 unit)

From my correlated leverage and stacks article last week:

Seattle’s implied for 28.5 points this week and both of these teams are in the top 11 in seconds per snap. I expect it to be high scoring, which makes this a strong bet with the excellent correlation between Wilson’s spike TD games and the spike TD games from his two stud WRs.