Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to my betting breakdown for UFC 266: Volkanovski vs Ortega, which goes down Saturday night in front of a sold-out T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. After six consecutive weeks without a PPV offering, the UFC has a strong offering this weekend with a stacked card including two title fights and a stacked main card and preliminary bouts as well.
In the headliner this weekend, Alexander Volkanovski will try to defend his featherweight title for the second time against Brian Ortega, who is getting his second chance to touch UFC gold after coming up short against Max Holloway a few years ago. In the co-main event, Valentina Shevchenko is lined as a massive betting favorite over Lauren Murphy. In the featured bout of the night, we have a rematch that’s been 17 years in the making between Nick Diaz, who returns to the octagon after six long years away from the sport, and former welterweight champion Robbie Lawler.
As of now, this is the most amount of action I’ve ever had on a UFC card, so let’s get into the bets.
You can find all my plays for free in the FTN Bets Tracker. I’ll be writing this best bets article weekly with extended breakdowns for up to three of my best bets and occasionally some leans if I don’t have three plays. I will be in the FTNBets Discord for about two hours before the early prelims this weekend to answer any questions that readers have. We’d love to continue building the community through Discord.
If you’re interested in DFS and betting takes for every fight on this card, you can check out The Undisputed MMA Show with Jon Kelly and me.
UFC 266
Matthew Semelsberger vs Martin Sano Betting Odds
Odds: Semelsberger -550 vs.Sano +400, DraftKings Sportsbook
Semelsberger has gotten off to a nice start in the UFC. He got a layup of a debut matchup against Carlton Minus and passed that test without much stress, which led to a first-round knockout of Jason Witt. He came up just short against Chaos Williams in his last matchup, snapping a five-fight win streak, but I thought he looked solid even in defeat. Semelsberger is not somebody that I was very high on coming into the UFC, his regional tape showed some grappling deficiencies and he was reliant on athleticism and power. While I haven’t changed my opinion too much, it’s obvious that Semelsberger hits hard even at the UFC level and has solid cardio and volume to help him win minutes on the feet as well.
I have no choice but to keep the writeup on Sano short, as there just aren’t many recent data points we have on the UFC debutant. Sano, 30, last fought on a Bellator card back in 2017 and has not had an MMA victory since 2014. Sano is really only on this card because he’s been lifelong friends with the returning Nick Diaz, and they got him a shot in the big show. Stylistically, Sano leaves a lot to be desired in pretty much every aspect of MMA that I’ve seen. In his last fight, he was badly out grappled early in the fight before rallying his way to a decision. Before that, his striking was exposed as he was knocked out in under 90 seconds by Bellator journeyman Danasabe Mohammed. Bottom line, this guy does not belong in the UFC.
I mentioned earlier that I’m not totally sold on Semelsberger having a future that includes a UFC ranking, but he has shown to be a UFC-level athlete and striker to this point, which cannot be said for Sano. This is a guy that hasn’t fought professionally in four years, hasn’t won in seven years, and is only collecting a paycheck because he’s friends with Nick Diaz. Semelsberger should have Sano covered anywhere this fight goes, and I’m not convinced it’ll even look remotely competitive.
Bet: Matthew Semelsberger -350 RISK 5x until -370, to win 1x until -435. (Placed 9/20 on FoxBet)
Curtis Blaydes vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik betting odds
Odds: Blaydes -355 vs. Rozenstruik +260, DraftKings Sportsbook
Blaydes is looking to get on track this weekend after suffering a brutal knockout at the hands of Derrick Lewis back in February. Prior to that Loss, Blaydez had put together a five fight win streak and appeared to be one victory away from a title shot, but will now have to work his way back up the ladder. Stylistically, Blaydes is one of the few specialists in the heavyweight division, as he is a pure wrestler. His striking has improved in the last few years, but this is a guy who averages well over six takedowns per 15 minutes and looks to land takedowns in volume, regardless of opponent. This is obviously a great skillset to have at heavyweight and makes Blaydes the best minute-winner in the division, but it also leaves him vulnerable on takedown entries and on the feet, and we’ve seen that come to fruition in the form of three KO losses since he debuted in 2016.
Rozenstruik is in quite the opposite position as Blaydes, having scored a highlight reel knockout against Augusto Sakai in June following a skid where he lost two of three fights (although to Francis Ngannou and Ciryl Gane). Rozenstruik made a name for himself entering the UFC with four consecutive knockout victories, and that is kind of the perfect showcase of his style. He’s an extremely powerful striker with a kickboxing background. Rozenstruik prefers to go second in striking exchanges, offering to counter his opponents as opposed to leading the dance. That has led to some issues in the form of low-volume, meaning that Rozenstruik has trouble winning decisions, but it also allows his opponents to fall asleep at the wheel at times and leave themselves vulnerable to those big shots that come every few minutes from “Bigi Boy”.
This is a pretty binary fight in terms of how to handicap the winner. If Blaydes is able to get in on the legs of Rozenstruik and attempt takedowns in bulk, he should get them and dominate the fight. On the flip side, if Rozenstruik is somehow able to keep the fight standing or time the perfect counterstrike, he has the chance to land another highlight KO. I think the money line is pretty accurate with Blaydes at about 77% implied win probability, I expect him to land takedowns here. However, I think the biggest edge on the fight comes from the total market. If we combine the UFC careers of these two guys, their fights have ended inside of 15 minutes about 73% of the time. I saw fight doesn’t go the distance was just -172 (63% implied probability) and had interest. Not only is there a mathematical edge there, but I also think the fact that Blaydes got brutally knocked out recently helps the under. His durability may be compromised which could help Rozenstruik land a KO blow, but it also may force him to be more aggressive on the ground when he lands takedowns. Blaydes probably wins this fight, but I feel more confident in violence than anything else.
Bet: Blaydes/Rozenstruik Fight Does NOT Go The Distance -172 1.5x, 1x until -200 (Placed 9/21 on Fanduel)
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Brian Ortega betting odds
Odds: Volkanovski -180 vs. Ortega +155 , DraftKings Sportsbook
This is an excerpt from my Main Event Preview: https://www.ftnbets.com/articles/JonahShiffman/5319/ufc-266-volkanovski-vs-ortega-betting-odds-picks-and-preview/
This is a matchup that fight fans have been waiting on for a while. After this bout was originally scheduled for March, Volkanovski was forced to pull out of the fight with a nasty case of COVID-19. After that, the UFC pivoted their plans to have these featherweights coach The Ultimate Fighter and instead fight towards the end of the year. Volkanovski enters the matchup as a considerable favorite, and that makes a lot of sense considering the body of work that he’s put together within the UFC. Since debuting in late 2016, Volkanovski is a flawless 10-0 inside the octagon with very few competitive fights. After getting a few easier matchups early in his career, Volkanovski’s resume features wins over Chad Mendes, Jose Aldo, and Max Holloway, three of the best featherweights of the modern era. Ortega has also had an extremely impressive UFC run, with the sole blemish on his record through nine fights being a title fight loss to Max Holloway, while finishing all eight of his victories.
Stylistically, Volkanovski is a guy who can only be classified as a great fighter across the board. While that sounds cliche, Volkanovski is just one of those fighters who simply doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses that we’ve seen to this point. His striking metrics are impressive, and he’s shown wrestling ability with finishing upside as well. Perhaps the most underrated part of Volkanovski’s game is his Fight IQ and defense though, as he is constantly feinting and keeping his opponents guessing while simultaneously staying out of much trouble. On the flip side, Ortega has shown to have weaknesses in his game but is very much a boom or bust fighter with great upside. In the past, we’ve seen Ortega struggle with his defensive striking, not only in the Max Holloway fight but he’s gotten himself into holes in several of his previous fights as well. Ortega’s specialty is his offense, he has shown the ability to put opponents unconscious despite not being the best technical striker on earth, and his Jiu-Jitsu is world-class and puts his opponent in constant danger during grappling sequences.
Oftentimes when we look at main events, especially on PPV, we see some of the most efficient betting markets in the world due to the number of people and money that are entering the market. However, I still think there is a massive edge to be had in this main event. One of the easier things to handicap in MMA is minute-winning capability, also known as who will likely be winning on the judges’ scorecards for the majority of the fight. That figures to be a massive advantage for Volkanovski in this spot, who is a top-five pound-for-pound fighter on the planet in my opinion and is likely the best minute-winner inside of the sport. To win this fight, I think Ortega will need a finish. Of course, that’s possible, and we’ve seen it eight times in the UFC to this point, however, I just don’t see many advantages for Ortega in this fight outside of pure grappling. While his striking looked great against Chan Sung Jung in his most recent outing after a long layoff following his first title shot, I’ve seen Ortega get out-struck by Cub Swanson, Renato Moicano, Diego Brandao, and even Clay Guida at times in his career. He has made a living off of coming back in fights and pulling off highlight finishes, but Volkanovski has yet to show any cracks in his fight IQ or durability. The one spot that I mentioned Ortega having an advantage in is pure grappling, but oftentimes it requires takedowns to get the fight to the mat, and Ortega has averaged less than a takedown per 15 minutes in his UFC career. Despite Volkanovski having just a 72% takedown defense, it’s hard to see Ortega attempting a ton of takedowns in this spot. As previously mentioned, I doubt Volkanovski takes this fight to the ground on his own accord either, as his fight IQ has historically been great. The bottom line here is that Volkanovski should dominate the majority of this fight, and at -165 I think there’s a ton of value in his money line considering that Ortega likely needs a finish to win against a very durable guy.
Bet: Alexander Volkanovski 2.5x until -160, 2x until -175, 1.5x until -195, 1x until -220. (Placed 2x at -175 on 8/14, Added 0.5x at -150)
