Betting NFL Props Using Math: Week 12


The goal of this article is, of course, to provide winning picks. However, it’s also to provide a blueprint on how to cleverly bet props with math.

We’re targeting small same-game parlays that underestimate the correlation involved. Additionally, +EV bets can compound in parlays (see this tweet thread from Justin Freeman for more on this concept), so ideally, we’re getting the best of both worlds.


This week


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aYPA = projected YPA * projected adjusted completion percentage

Joe Burrow 275+ passing yards and 2+ passing TDs
Ja’Marr Chase 75+ receiving yards

(+340, BetMGM, 1 unit)

The Offensive Efficiency Report paints a clear picture — Cincinnati is better off throwing the ball against Pittsburgh, and they should be able to do so with a high degree of success. From a theoretical standpoint, the high yards per attempt projection should benefit Ja’Marr Chase the most, since he’s been their most explosive receiver, and we’ve seen this show up more practically, as well. In Joe Burrow’s four highest yardage games, Chase has 201, 77, 49 and 159 yards. 

Because of the way they spike in yardage together, I’m also a fan of taking this to the extremes, upping Burrow’s yardage to 300-plus and Chase’s yardage to 95-plus makes this a +600 bet on MGM (half-unit bet for me). 

Tom Brady 3+ passing TDs and 295+ passing yards
Jonathan Taylor 30+ receiving yards

(+450, BetMGM, 1 unit)

The Bucs project well in adjusted completion percentage and yards per attempt, but the key to this bet is how much faster this game will play if TB builds an early lead, in comparison to any other game script. The Offensive Efficiency Report shows this game playing at or above 28 seconds per snap, unless TB has a positive script, in which case it projects at a significantly faster 26.3 seconds per snap. 

That script (in which Tom Brady is likely throwing multiple TDs early on), would boost play volume for each team and pit Indianapolis in a script where they’re likely to throw more than usual, leading to a spike receiving game for Jonathan Taylor.

Miles Sanders anytime TD and 85+ rushing yards

(+575, BetMGM, 1 unit)

The Eagles have a whopping 870 rushing yards in their last four games, and the Giants are unlikely to slow the ground attack. The Giants are well below average in line yards allowed (4.66 vs league average 4.21) and second-level yards (1.29 vs 1.18). Consequently, Philly has the second-highest projected line yards and third-highest projected second-level yards on the slate. Furthermore, Miles Sanders gives them explosive play ability in the run game that Boston Scott and Jordan Howard simply don’t. Sanders carried 16 times for 94 yards against New Orleans, who were first in line yards allowed per rush at just 3.0 yards prior to the Eagles’ dominant win.

The fourth bet will take advantage of the incredible open field yards projection for the Cleveland running game once their player props are posted in same-game parlay options.

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