Bet these 3 NFL Player Props

Last time out I gave out three middles to take advantage of in your 2021 NFL betting, trying to find numbers that were different enough from book to book or where lines have moved so drastically we were trying to land between both numbers and win both bets. While that is an extremely effective way of maximizing returns, betting straight numbers (which is what most of my bets have been this offseason) can also be that. Building a portfolio of futures can lead to excellent returns, the biggest reason more people don’t do it is because they don’t want their money tied up for so long.

That is a flawed way of thinking in my opinion. If you talked to a financial advisor and told them you could get a 20% return on your portfolio in four months they would say that is insane upside and go for it. That’s how I try to think about futures betting. Get as many valuable lines as possible (Currently FTNBets subs have an insane amount of CLV) and be in a strong position to profit. Here are three of my favorite NFL player prop bets for 2021.

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Bet these NFL player props

Here are three NFL player props I’m putting money on right now.

Logan Thomas is a red zone beast

Over 4.5 touchdowns (-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)

If you look through all my picks on the FTN Bet Tracker, you will see how rarely I bet on touchdowns. Touchdowns are high-variance outcomes that can be very difficult to predict. That doesn’t mean there can’t be value in the lines however, and when projections differ enough from a number, you can and should capitalize on it. That is exactly what Logan Thomas being lined at 4.5 touchdowns gives us. Last year, he led Washington in red-zone targets (24) and end-zone targets (8) and now has improved quarterback play this year with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. Last year, he scored six touchdowns as he became a full-time tight end for the first time in his career. He should only build on that this year as he played on 100% of the snaps in three of the final four games and on 90% or more of the snaps in the final eight games of the season. With Jeff Ratcliffe’s projections and Kyle Murray’s projections having him at 6.6 and 6.8 touchdowns, respectively, you have a massive difference in the current market and the projected outcome. Take the over on Logan Thomas touchdowns this year.

Seahawks pace increase helps Chris Carson

Over 900.5 rushing yards (-115, PointsBet)

Derek Brown’s coaching and coordinator breakdown series has been fantastic on FTN Fantasy and it’s no different with the Seattle Seahawks edition. New offensive coordinator Shane Waldron is coming from the Rams, where he worked as the passing game coordinator. While a passing game coordinator doesn’t always sound promising from Chris Carson, what is great is the increased pace. With the Seahawks projecting to play more snaps, Carson should automatically have more opportunity. His biggest key will be stay healthy, but with a number of just 900.5 in a 17-game season he can afford to miss multiple games and still hit this number. Carson has played 14, 15 and 12 games the last three years with two 1,000-yard seasons. Last year he had his most efficient season, averaging 4.8 yards per carry, but he only had 141 rush attempts on the season. Expect that number to go back to the 240 mark he hit in both previous seasons. Both Jeff and Kyle have him comfortably going over 900 rushing yards and PointsBet is currently hanging out a bad number. Carson’s rushing prop is as high as 1,025.5 rushing yards with a consensus line of 1,000.5. You are getting a stale line at 900.5 — that is something you should always look to take advantage of.

Saquon Barkley returns to practice and will return to form … but it won’t be enough

Under 1,175.5 rushing yards (-112, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Saquon Barkley returned to practice Monday two days after a report from Ian Rapoport had him out until maybe Week 3. Regardless, the Giants plan to be careful with Barkley, their franchise player, as he returns from his torn ACL. Does this mean he won’t play … and play a lot? No. But with a number of 1,175.5, it is built in that he is going to get a lot of volume. Having not hit this number in the last two seasons, the Giants’ issue in the run game isn’t Barkley, it is their offensive line. Running behind a bottom-10 line (FTN’s Brett Whitefield ranks the line 31st in his offensive line rankings), for Jason Garrett, on a bottom-10 scoring offense is a horrendous combination for a runner. Barkley will have to be exceptional to beat this number and used properly — I am more than happy to fade Garrett. Both Kyle and Jeff have him going under this number, with Kyle projecting Barkley for 971 rushing yards and Jeff for 1,058.