AFC East Division Winners: Can Aaron Rodgers Get the Jets Over the Hump?

Now more than ever, the fantasy and betting landscapes are providing a year-round experience for fans, especially when it comes to the NFL. With the advent of best ball and growth of dynasty leagues – plus the explosion of legal sports betting options – casual fantasy players and bettors are no longer waiting until the late summer to catch up and get involved.

Still, summer brings with it an enhanced focus on NFL content. Talk shows, podcasts and Twitter timelines are zeroing in on the upcoming season, fantasy drafts and competitions are ubiquitous, and sportsbooks are taking bets on futures like division, conference and Super Bowl champions.

Over the next few weeks, I’ll attempt to satisfy your craving for NFL content by previewing every division. I’ll cover key division storylines, provide a breakdown for each team and give out my pick to win each division.

AFC East Preview

The Bills have captured three straight AFC East titles, with their latest coming by 4.5 games despite a somewhat shaky start to the season. The Dolphins looked poised to push Buffalo until Tua Tagovailoa missed four games and change with head injuries. The Patriots took a step back last season behind an uninspiring sophomore campaign from quarterback Mac Jones, and the Jets battled their way to 7-10 despite registering the league’s worst PFF passing grade.

Entering 2023, Josh Allen and the Bills are once again the favorite (+130), followed by the Jets (+250), the Dolphins (+290) and the Patriots (+750) in a very unfamiliar position. This figures to be one of the most entertaining divisions in football this season. Can Aaron Rodgers get the Jets over the hump, or does this division still belong to Buffalo? And are we counting out the Dolphins and Patriots too soon? Let’s see whose offseason put them in the best position to win the AFC East.

Buffalo Bills

(FanDuel Sportsbook division title odds: +130)

The Bills’ offseason has remained rather quiet, as the three-time defending AFC East champs have mostly attempted to patch up small holes in their roster thus far. The biggest splash came on the defensive side, with two-time Pro Bowl linebacker Tremaine Edmunds signing with the Chicago Bears. On offense, Buffalo swapped out Devin Singletary for Damien Harris, said goodbye to slot receivers Jamison Crowder and Isaiah McKenzie, and drafted Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid.

With few changes this offseason, the majority of their defense intact, and Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs leading the charge on offense, expect the Bills to pace the AFC East once again. If someone is going to knock them off, it will almost certainly take 11 or more wins, something no AFC East team has accomplished since 2017 besides Buffalo and the Tom Brady-led Patriots.

New York Jets

(FanDuel odds: +250)

If you haven’t heard, the Jets have a new quarterback. In comes Aaron Rodgers and out (to the bench) goes Zach Wilson. This season, New York’s elite defense will be complemented by a revamped offense, led by the former Packers signal-caller, second-year back Breece Hall and second-year receiver Garrett Wilson. Joining them are Rodgers’ former Packers teammates Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, as well as ex-Chiefs speedster Mecole Hardman. 

The Jets’ offense is worlds different than it was last year and looks like one of the league’s best on paper. If Rodgers can mesh with the Jets’ young stars, particularly Garrett Wilson, we could be looking at an offense that resembles some of his best Green Bay offenses. Still, bringing in a ton of new pieces is always more difficult than it appears on paper, hence the Jets’ 29% implied division winner probability and the Bills’ 43%.

Miami Dolphins

(FanDuel odds: +290)

After starting 8-3, the Dolphins lost five straight games – four by six points or fewer – and ultimately finished the season 9-8, stumbling into the playoffs where they lost by just three points to Bills. Miami was 8-4 in games Tua started and finished but just 1-5 in games he missed or exited early due to injury. This season, Mike McDaniel will run it back with Tua, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and he should again have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL.

On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins will likely be without Byron Jones and Melvin Ingram, but they signed linebacker David Long and traded for All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey to help improve one of the league’s worst tackling and coverage units. Entering the year in good health could go a long way for Miami, who seems to be a bit forgotten in the AFC East behind the Bills and Jets.

New England Patriots

(FanDuel odds: +750)

Bill Belichick and the Patriots projected to finish last in the AFC East? Things change quickly in the NFL, and truthfully, I’d be surprised if they finished anything but last. New England lost some key contributors on offense this offseason in Jakobi Meyers, Damien Harris, Jonnu Smith and Nelson Agholor, but Belichick went out and got JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki to fill the void. Even so, the Patriots’ offensive weapons are markedly worse than the rest of the division’s. Mac Jones still doesn’t have a clear-cut No. 1 receiving option, so he’ll have to take a big step forward under new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien in order advance the Pats’ lackluster passing attack. Still, it’s hard to imagine Jones and O’Brien doing enough to keep up with the Bills, Jets and Dolphins.

The Pick: Buffalo Bills

Some teams could get complacent after three consecutive division titles, but the Bills are still chasing something bigger: their first Super Bowl victory. The Jets’ acquisition of Aaron Rodgers poses a major threat, but knocking off Buffalo in year one is a tall task.

Wild Card: Miami Dolphins

The Bills have dominated the AFC East for a few years, and the Jets dominated offseason headlines, but the Dolphins were in first place more than halfway through the 2022 season. If Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy, he’s shown he can lead Miami to success with the help of his elite weapons.