2025 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: ADP Rumblings Because of the Draft (5/15)

Rookie minicamps are underway, which leads to some of the most fun content of the offseason: Rookies in helmets and shorts doing impressive things on air. In all seriousness, these clips do confirm that we are getting closer to the NFL season day by day.

Best ball drafts on Underdog have been going strong for two weeks which gives us an idea of which players have been moving the most since the 2025 NFL Draft. Generally speaking, rookies see the most dramatic moves in early best ball drafts now that the players we have been analyzing (or overanalyzing) for months finally have a new home in the NFL.

This article will dive into some of the biggest risers and fallers in Underdog drafts in the last two weeks. Let’s check it out.

Fantasy Football ADP Rumblings (5/15)

Biggest Risers

Jaydon Blue, RB, Dallas Cowboys

ADP: 131.1, RB41 (-42 spots)

The biggest riser of any player since drafts started is Dallas Cowboys’ fifth-round pick Jaydon Blue. The Texas product was a role player throughout most of his college career but was given an expanded role in 2024 and made the most of it.

Blue handled 134 carries for 730 yards and eight rushing touchdowns while adding 42 receptions for 368 yards and six receiving scores. He was able to flash his ability to make big plays in both the run and pass game, but unfortunately, the increased opportunities also showed issues with ball security (three fumbles).

The former Longhorn cemented his status as a draft prospect with a strong showing at the combine. Blue measured in at 5-foot-9 and 196 pounds before running a 4.38 40-yard dash. That was enough to push him into the fifth round of the draft.

Fantasy managers are certainly intrigued by his upside, especially in a backfield that consists of retread running backs like Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders. At the very least, Blue should add some much-needed burst in space as the team’s primary receiving back.

Sanders has never shown much receiving ability at the NFL level. Williams has been much better but has seemingly lost a lot of explosiveness since his 2022 ACL injury.

That excitement has pushed Blue up 42 spots in drafts and is being drafted as the RB41. On the surface that isn’t bad, but the success (and health) of running backs in 2024 has pushed that up to a late 10th or early 11th-round pick.

Blue is an interesting pick in dynasty leagues but may not pay off on his lofty price tag in traditional and best-ball leagues. He can be in the mix as the final running back in an early-RB strategy but may see his ADP fall as the summer goes on.

D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears
Roschon Johnson, RB, Chicago Bears

Johnson ADP: 170.9, RB52 (-38.4 spots)
Swift ADP: 82.6, RB27 (-23.8 spots)

Many expected the Bears to add a running back with one of their early draft picks. Instead, Chicago opted to add playmakers in other places, leaving the team’s 2024 backfield unscathed (minus seventh-round pick Kyle Monangai).

As a result, both Chicago running backs were among the top five risers ADP since April 29.

For D’Andre Swift, he has a chance to be the lead back once again in a dynamic offense behind an improved offensive line. Since being traded by the Lions (and Chicago’s new head coach Ben Johnson), Swift has played in 33 of 34 games and averaged 241 carries and 51 targets per season.

Roschon Johnson has struggled to stay healthy and carve out a role since being taken in the third round of the 2023 NFL draft, but now he gets a chance to prove he can be a complement to Swift in the backfield. He largely functioned as a short yardage back in 2024, finishing second on the team in rushing touchdowns (6) on 55 carries.

Neither player is out of the woods yet, especially with veterans like Nick Chubb and J.K. Dobbins still available. There are also interesting names in trade rumors like Breece Hall and Travis Etienne Jr.

The presence of those names could nuke either or both Bears’ running backs. But for now, they are doing a good job of keeping both Swift and Johnson’s ADP in a reasonable place.

Drafting either Bears running back won’t make or break a team, but they could have upside if Chicago chooses to enter the season with their current backfield and no further additions.

Jack Bech, WR, Las Vegas Raiders

ADP: 124.8, WR60 (-25.5 spots)

The biggest riser at the wide receiver position over the last two weeks is Raiders second-round pick Jack Bech. The former TCU wide receiver was a favorite among many draft analysts throughout the draft process and landed in a spot that has room in the passing attack for another option.

Bech started his career at LSU (59 receptions for 689 yards and four touchdowns in two seasons) before transferring to TCU. He worked through injuries in 2023 before having a breakout season in 2024. Bech led the Horned Frogs’ receiving room with 62 receptions for 1,034 yards and nine touchdowns in his final year.

The Raiders desperately needed to add another pass-catching weapon to complement tight end Brock Bowers and wide receiver Jakobi Meyers. Bech can play outside and should instantly find himself on the field in two wide receiver sets to start his career.

In reality, Bech will likely feature as the fourth option in Pete Carroll’s offense behind Ashton Jeanty running the ball and behind both Bowers and Meyers in the passing attack. That said, he should have plenty of opportunity to get open with teams focusing on stopping the run game and Bowers in the passing attack.

Bech has moved up 25 spots in ADP since the draft but can still be drafted in the 12th round of fantasy drafts. He’s worth a late flier for a team that was desperate to add receiving talent for Geno Smith in his first year with the team.

Pat Bryant, WR, Denver Broncos

ADP: 185.4, WR77 (-24.0 spots)

Denver’s rookie wide receiver Pat Bryant is the second biggest wide receiver mover since the draft.

Nobody expected Bryant to get drafted in the third round after a quiet career at Illinois. In four seasons with the Fighting Illini, Bryant totaled 137 receptions for 2,095 yards and 19 touchdowns. His early draft capital was even more surprising after he ran a 4.61 40-yard dash at 6-foot-2, 204 pounds, at the combine.

Bryant’s rapid ascent in ADP is hard to fathom considering Denver is returning their top three receivers (Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims Jr., Devaughn Vele) from their 2024 passing attack. The Broncos also added Evan Engram in free agency to give them a receiving threat at tight end.

His rise can almost certainly be attributed to Sean Payton’s quote stating that Bryant’s game has a lot of similarities to Michael Thomas when he was with the Saints. Fantasy managers pushing Bryant up the board are certainly expecting solid production given Thomas’s domination with Payton as head coach.

By no means will Bryant derail your team with an ADP in the 15th round. However, teams looking to uncover a gem for their teams may find themselves holding onto a player who will struggle to see the field unless there is an injury ahead of him on the depth chart.

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Biggest Fallers

Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns
Dylan Sampson, RB, Cleveland Browns

Ford: ADP: 202.8, RB63 (+43.4 spots)
Sampson: ADP: 179.7, RB53 (+31.5 spots)

Nobody was surprised when the Browns prioritized taking a running back during the 2025 NFL Draft to replace Nick Chubb. However, the way they went about it ultimately hurt two different backs, veteran Jerome Ford and rookie Dylan Sampson.

Cleveland ultimately used two draft picks in this stacked running back draft class to upgrade their backfield. First, they selected Ohio State’s Quinshon Judkins in the second round of the draft. Judkins was a high-level producer during his first two college seasons at Ole Miss (545 carries for 2,725 yards and 31 touchdowns with 37 receptions for 287 yards and three receiving scores) before transferring to Ohio State in his final year.

Judkins split the backfield during Ohio State’s National Championship run (194 carries for 1,060 yards and 14 touchdowns with 22 receptions for 161 yards and receiving touchdowns). Often, he functioned as the team’s early down back and closer.

Cleveland also used a fourth-round pick on Tennessee’s Sampson after he led the SEC in rushing during the 2024 season. Sampson was a rotational back in his first two seasons but erupted in a full-time role in his final year. He amassed 258 carries for 1,491 yards and 22 touchdowns while adding 20 receptions for 143 yards. Sampson should at least carve out a role as a change-of-pace back with receiving ability at the NFL level.

Ford’s ADP dropped because he’s now competing for touches with two rookies. Sampson’s ADP dropped because the hope that he would command a backfield has evaporated now that he’s landed on a team that used an earlier pick at his position.

When it comes to the Browns backfield, Judkins is the safest choice. Given how injuries usually work at the running back position, both Ford and Sampson are interesting values as late-round options.

Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Green Bay Packers

ADP: 206.7, WR86 (+29.0 spots)

Dontayvion Wicks was successful in a small sample size as a rookie (39 receptions on 58 targets for 581 yards and four touchdowns), which led many to hope that he could carve out a role in Green Bay’s ambiguous receiving corps heading into 2024.

Unfortunately, Wicks struggled to gain much traction in his second season, some of which was aided by him dropping the football. Wicks saw more targets in 2024 (76) but ultimately finished with the same number of receptions (39) and fewer yards (415). His drop total also tripled from three as a rookie to nine in his second season.

There was initial hope that Wicks would get another chance to earn a larger foothold in 2025 with Christian Watson recovering from a torn ACL. Those hopes were dashed during the NFL draft when the Packers took a wide receiver in the first round (Matthew Golden) and third round (Savion Williams).

Wicks enters 2025 in an even more competitive depth chart with players who were drafted with higher draft capital than the team used on him. Jayden Reed’s role is established, but Wicks will be fighting with Romeo Doubs, Golden and Williams for a chance to earn targets.

The third-year receiver has seen his ADP drop 29 spots since the draft and he is currently available at a reasonable WR86 price tag. We still don’t know exactly how Green Bay will utilize their receiving weapons (we can assume Reed and Golden will be on the field) next year.

Lean into the uncertainty, especially in the final rounds of your drafts.

Najee Harris, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

ADP: 110.1, RB35 (+27.6 spots)

Najee Harris didn’t secure a lucrative free agent contract (one-year, $5.2 million), but he landed as well as any free agent could when he signed with the Chargers. For a while, Harris’s ADP was two rounds higher than it currently is.

Then the NFL draft happened.

The Chargers selected North Carolina running back Omarion Hampton in the first round of the draft, giving fantasy managers (and the coaching staff) a new toy to utilize in their run-first offense.

Harris has rightfully seen his ADP take a hit, but he is quickly entering a zone where he may provide more upside than expected.

The veteran running back has posted four straight seasons with at least 255 carries, 29 receptions, 1,200 all-purpose yards and six total touchdowns. On the surface, it will be difficult to replicate those numbers in a new landing spot with an exciting rookie, but Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman are also no strangers to splitting the work in the backfield.

It is fair to expect Harris to start the season with a larger workload before gradually ceding work to Hampton. But his role shouldn’t disappear completely at any time during the season.

His ADP will continue to fall (especially as we get more news and clips from Hampton at the Chargers’ camp) making Harris a player who will continue to be valuable throughout the summer.

Jalen McMillan, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

ADP: 147.6, WR63 (+24.8 spots)

There was a lot of reason to be optimistic about Jalen McMillan heading into 2025. Sure, his role was almost guaranteed to shrink with Mike Evans back and Chris Godwin returning on an extension. But Godwin was going to need time to heal and McMillan showed that he could make an impact as a pass catcher during his rookie season.

From Weeks 14 to 18, McMillan caught 24 of 31 targets for 316 yards and seven touchdowns. He was the WR9 in half-PPR scoring during that time, averaging 17.4 fantasy points per game.

Unfortunately, the Buccaneers drafted Ohio State wide receiver Emeka Egbuka with their first-round pick. Egbuka enters the NFL as the leading receiver in Ohio State’s prolific history, racking up 205 receptions for 2,868 yards and 24 touchdowns.

It may take Godwin time to fully recover from his 2024 ankle injury, which means there is a world where Evans, McMillan and Egbuka can return fantasy value early in the season. However, once Godwin is healthy (as soon as Week 1), it is hard to imagine that McMillan will be able to carve out a consistent role in a very crowded depth chart.

Jalen Coker, WR, Carolina Panthers

ADP: 194.1, WR80 (+24.6 spots)

Jalen Coker had a productive rookie season for a UDFA, playing 11 games and logging 32 receptions on 46 targets for 478 yards and two touchdowns. Like McMillan, he also finished the season strong.

Coker had some spike weeks during his time on the field (including a WR11 in Week 15), but was mostly in and out of the lineup while competing with Adam Thielen for slot snaps.

Both Thielen and 2024 first-round pick Xavier Legette return to Carolina next season, but the team also invested a top-10 pick in Arizona wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan during the 2025 NFL Draft.

McMillan was a prolific receiver during his college career, posting back-to-back seasons with at least 80 receptions and 1,400 receiving yards. He also scored at least eight receiving touchdowns in all three collegiate seasons.

Carolina now has a wide receiver with alpha traits (McMillan) along with a gadgety player with a first-round pedigree (Legette) and a dependable slot (Thielen). That will make it very difficult for Coker to carve out a consistent role despite his flashes as a rookie.

For Coker to hit, he likely needs an injury to Thielen to maximize his skill set. That can happen (and did in 2024), but it narrows his path to fantasy relevance.