2024 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: ADP Rumblings (8/14)

The first week of the preseason has flown by, and football fans got to see their favorite teams for the first time in 2024. Training camp is in full swing, which means wild shifting in ADP now that we have injury and depth chart news to sift through.

For this iteration of the ADP Rumblings, we will look at the biggest moves since the first round of preseason games started. There have been plenty of significant shifts to track, and new players are emerging as potentially viable fantasy options during the 2024 season. Check out the biggest movers over the last week below.

Fantasy Football ADP Rumblings (8/14)

Biggest Riser

Jordan Mason, RB, San Francisco 49ers

ADP: 199.7 (-13.1), RB61

Injuries have cut through the 49ers backfield over the last couple of weeks. Christian McCaffrey is managing a calf injury. His most likely backup, Elijah Mitchell, suffered a hamstring strain. Explosive rookie Isaac Guerendo got hurt on the first day of training camp.

The war of attrition has apparently ultimately been won by Jordan Mason, the third-year running back competing for the backup running back spot. Mason was already having a strong camp, but having the backfield to himself for a while allows him to showcase his skills.

Mason hasn’t had the biggest workload throughout his two seasons (83 carries), but he’s averaged 5.6 yards per carry. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Mason take hold of the backup job, especially with Mitchell suffering another significant injury.

Injuries to the backfield have pushed Mason’s ADP up a round since the start of preseason games, moving him up to RB61. Even if Mason doesn’t win the backup running back spot against Elijah Mitchell, he could see significant playing time given the injuries to the backfield at this point in the offseason. He’s an excellent late-round dart throw with an interesting upside.

Biggest Faller

Kimani Vidal, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

ADP: 182.7 (+10.5), RB56

Kimani Vidal has struggled through injuries this offseason and was held out of his first career preseason game. There have also been reports that the sixth-rounder is on the roster bubble and giving up snaps to third-year back Isaiah Spiller.

Vidal was a prolific running back at Troy in college (781 carries for 4,010 yards and 33 touchdowns with 92 receptions for 700 yards and a touchdown in four seasons). He fell to the sixth round of the 2024 NFL Draft, which does little to guarantee him a roster spot in 2024.

Fantasy managers have been drafting Vidal as a sleeper for most of the offseason, so the chance that Vidal could get cut is far from ideal. There was a lot of excitement about his potential role in an ambiguous backfield, but it’s hard to earn a role (or a spot on the team) from the sideline.

There is still plenty of time for Vidal to bounce back, but there are also a lot of interesting late-round running backs emerging based on positive training camp news. It might be best to continue fading Vidal, even at an RB56 price tag, unless he continues to fall into the last round of fantasy drafts.

Quarterback

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

ADP: 204.5 (-3.6), QB29

EUGENE, OR - OCTOBER 21: Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix (10) reacts after a touchdown during a college football game between the Oregon Ducks and Washington State Cougars on October 21, 2023, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon.(Photo by Brian Murphy/Icon Sportswire) — EUGENE, OR – OCTOBER 21: Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix (10) reacts after a touchdown during a college football game between the Oregon Ducks and Washington State Cougars on October 21, 2023, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon.(Photo by Brian Murphy/Icon Sportswire)

The biggest mover since Thursday on Underdog is Bo Nix. The rookie quarterback saw a small shift in his ADP, dropping him 3.6 spots after a solid preseason performance.

Nix was efficient in his first NFL action, completing 15 of 21 passes for 125 yards and a touchdown. He also displayed good athleticism as a runner (three carries for 17 yards). The Colts don’t have the best secondary, but it was still a success for a rookie quarterback competing for a start in Week 1.

The rookie is interesting in fantasy drafts, especially superflex leagues where having quality quarterback depth is essential. Nix gets plenty of attention for his high-efficiency passing during his two years at Oregon, but he also subtly produced 744 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns on 143 carries.

There isn’t much talent on Denver’s roster, but Nix is a very interesting option for fantasy managers with late quarterback builds.

Running Back

Braelon Allen, New York Jets

ADP: 179.6 (-9.1), RB55

There has been consistent buzz coming from the Jets about Braelon Allen’s solid play throughout the offseason. At this point, Allen seems like a lock to secure the lead backup role to Breece Hall.

The rookie out of Wisconsin produced 54 yards on six carries in his first NFL action against the Commanders. Allen had the fifth-most rushing yards of any running back on the week and did it with six fewer carries than the four players ranked ahead of him. Allen was also a high-volume rusher and the focal point of Wisconsin’s offense (597 carries for 3,494 yards and 49 touchdowns in three seasons).

Allen doesn’t have much standalone value with Breece Hall healthy but would become a high-end RB2 if Hall got injured. The biggest obstacle for Allen would be his lack of passing production in college (49 receptions for 275 yards), but he’s flashed good pass-catching ability in camp.

If Allen has secured the RB2 job behind Breece Hall, he should be climbing the draft boards in fantasy drafts. Hall has had injury struggles during his time in the NFL and Allen is more than capable of producing strong fantasy totals in the run game in his stead.

Wide Receiver

Jalen Tolbert, Dallas Cowboys

ADP: 180.2 (-12.0), WR79

Jalen Tolbert has been having a really strong training camp and is making a push to be the third wide receiver on the Cowboy’s offense. Tolbert was a third-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft but has had very modest production in limited playing time over his first two seasons (24 receptions for 280 yards and two touchdowns).

Tolbert was a big producer at small-school South Alabama, catching 178 passes for 3,140 yards and 22 touchdowns during his four-year collegiate career. That success hasn’t manifested in NFL production but seems to be coming to fruition with extra reps due to CeeDee Lamb’s ongoing contract holdout.

It isn’t inconceivable for Tolbert to have a third-year breakout given his talent, physical profile and collegiate production. While we love rookies to produce early, sometimes small-school prospects need more time to acclimate to NFL passing schemes and player talent.

If Tolbert wins the WR3 job, he will certainly see ample opportunities next to Lamb (when his holdout ends) and Brandin Cooks. The Cowboys were in 11 personnel (three wide receivers, one tight end and one running back) last season 61.5% of their plays. They also ran 67.3 plays per game, which was second among all NFL teams.

Tolbert’s ADP is rapidly rising, but he’s still priced as the WR79 in fantasy drafts. He’s an extremely cheap way to get a piece of the Cowboys passing attack and won’t wreck your fantasy draft if he doesn’t pan out.

Tight End

Colby Parkinson, Los Angeles Rams

ADP: 207.2 (-1.5), TE27

Searching for a late-round tight end that can provide fantasy value frees fantasy managers up to attack higher-scoring positions like quarterback, running back and wide receiver throughout the draft. A late-round tight end that seems worth the gamble is the Rams’ Colby Parkinson.

Veteran Tyler Higbee suffered a torn ACL at the end of last season, which means it will be a while before we see him in game action again. Over the last three seasons, Higbee has averaged 87.7 targets, 60 receptions, 558.3 yards and 3.3 touchdowns. That is solid TE2 production for the taking and Parkinson is the most likely to absorb that work.

The Rams gave Parkinson a surprising three-year, $22.5 million contract this offseason given his modest production during his four seasons with Seattle (57 receptions on 78 targets for 618 yards and four touchdowns). He’s got excellent size (6-foot-7, 252 pounds) and speed (4.77 40-yard dash) to become an excellent complement to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in the passing attack.

Parkinson is the ideal dart throw at the tight end position late in drafts. He’s got enough athleticism to attack down the middle of the field and the size to soak up red zone targets in an efficient passing offense led by Matthew Stafford.