2024 AFC North Betting Preview: Division Winners

While the summer solstice officially marks the beginning of our hottest season, the NFL has already brought an enhanced focus content for the upcoming season. Articles, podcasts and Twitter timelines are zeroing in on the upcoming season, and best ball content is flowing like water. Sportsbooks have posted a plethora of future NFL bets such as player props and conference champions.

Over the next few weeks, I’ll provide NFL betting content by previewing every division. I’ll cover key divisional storylines, provide a breakdown for each team and give out my favorite bet to win each division. I previewed the AFC East and NFC East last week, backing the Jets to end a 22-year drought as divisional champions and the Eagles to reclaim the top spot over the Cowboys. Today, let’s look at the AFC North. 

AFC North Betting Preview

The Baltimore Ravens earned their first AFC North title since 2019 with a 13-4 record last year, stopping the Bengals’ two-year run atop the division. Per Sports Odds History, we can see that the projected AFC North champion has maintained decent odds in June, despite being one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL. 

Currently, the Ravens (+125) and Bengals (+165) are co-favorites with both the Browns (+550) and Steelers (+700) as long shots. Will the Ravens continue their dominance? Can Cincinnati return to the top of the AFC North with their third division title in four seasons? Can the Browns find enough consistency on offense to balance their elite defense? Will the Steelers surprise everyone and nab their first division title since 2020 despite the worst odds?

Here’s my betting breakdown of the AFC North.

Cleveland Browns

(DraftKings Division Title Odds: +550)

I hated how the Browns ended the 2023 season. 

Their elite defense was torched by the Texans in the playoffs, failing to register a turnover or sack in a 45-14 blowout. The Browns ranked second overall in DVOA (to Baltimore) but struggled to find consistency on offense all season. I have doubts that their offense will be much better in 2024. 

Cleveland has a strong receiving core in Amari Cooper, newly acquired Jerry Jeudy and tight end David Njoku. Their offensive line has the potential to return to the NFL’s elite, but need fully healthy seasons from Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills, who may not be ready for the start of the season. There is also going to be a coaching loss with former offensive line coach Bill Callahan joining Tennessee to work for his son.

In the end, my lack of faith centers on two people: Deshaun Watson and Nick Chubb. It is very possible that Watson’s struggles last season are the new normal, as he is now four years removed from his last fantasy relevant year (2020, overall QB5). The Browns added Jameis Winston as the backup, who inspires little faith with a history of turnovers. 

Cleveland needs a healthy Nick Chubb to have any chance to make a run at the division. Using our FTN Splits Tool, we see the Browns rushing offense has been significantly better with Chubb on the field, posting 38.4% more rushing yards and 95.4% more rushing touchdowns. 

Chubb still has no target date for his return from last year’s gruesome knee injury, which puts the Browns start to the season in jeopardy. 

Too many questions and too much competition to back Cleveland to win the AFC North this season. 

Cincinnati Bengals

(DraftKings Division Title Odds: +165)

My biggest disconnect from public betting opinion lies with the Bengals. 

Cincinnati struggled all season on defense, finishing just 23rd in DVOA, including sixth worst against the run. The Bengals were just 1-5 in the division, their lone win coming against a Cleveland team that rested all their starters in Week 18. They were better on offense (11th in DVOA) but continued to struggle to run the ball effectively, finishing dead-last with just 89.8 rushing yards per game. 

My real concern is on the offensive line, where they enjoyed incredibly fortunate health. The Bengals were one of the only teams to have all five starters play 17 games, logging over 1000 total snaps. Cincinnati brought in 31-year-old Trent Brown to replace Jonah Williams, who struggled all season. Our Dan Fornek has their offensive line ranked 16th overall, but notes that if they don’t experience the same level of health, this group could really struggle in such a tough division. 

Throw in the injury concerns with Joe Burrow’s wrist and Tee Higgins’ continued unhappiness, and I am not inspired to back Cincinnati despite boasting one of the league’s easiest schedules. 

Baltimore Ravens 

(DraftKings Division Title Odds: +125)

There is a lot to like about the Ravens, who carry the most complete roster in the division. 

Baltimore finished first overall in defensive DVOA and fourth overall in offensive DVOA per Aaron Schatz. The Ravens had superb balance and won 10 of their last 11 games entering Week 18. They added future Hall of Fame running back Derrick Henry, who will pair well with reigning MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson. However, their offensive line, usually a strength, has serious questions, ranked just 26th in our preseason FTN rankings. 

I have even more concerns on defense. Baltimore lost Jadeveon Clowney to Carolina and Patrick Queen to the rival Steelers. Most importantly, the Ravens lost their defensive coordinator, Mike Macdonald, who became Seattle’s head coach. There are also questions in the secondary after losing both cornerback Ronald Darby and safety Geno Stone. 

The final concern is their odds, which are simply too low in such a competitive division. The Bengals have a much easier schedule, and the Ravens have lost seven of their last eight regular-season games to my preferred choice. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

(DraftKings Division Title Odds: +700)

The end-of-season schedule is horrific, especially in Weeks 13-17, but their first nine games are very winnable, and Pittsburgh doesn’t face an AFC North opponent until Week 11 against Baltimore. 

The Steelers finished 10-7 last year despite woeful quarterback play. Kenny Pickett fooled all fantasy drafters by passing for just six touchdowns in 324 attempts despite a very promising preseason. Among passers with at least 300 attempts, Pickett ranked 24th in passer rating and 26th in completion percentage. 

Pittsburgh added veteran Russell Wilson and dynamic dual-threat signal caller Justin Fields to its roster, giving the Steelers experience and versatility. Wilson finished with a respectable 29 total touchdowns and just eight interceptions despite operating in an inconsistent Denver offense. Fields is one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league, posting 9.5 carries per game and 50.5 rushing yards per game, per FTN charting data. The improved play under center will certainly help a Pittsburgh offense that ranked just 15th in offensive DVOA and 25th in overall offensive yards per game. 

George Pickens ranked 25th out of 35 wide receivers with 100 targets in catchable target rate. Pittsburgh’s leading wideout had only 68.9% of his targets rated as catchable. While his average yards per target (10.8) ranks among the highest in the league, he now has one of the most accurate deep-ball passers under center in Wilson. 

Head coach Mike Tomlin always finds a way to beat better teams, and there are still rumors Pittsburgh could add a wide receiver before the season. The Steelers defense is always elite, finishing sixth-best last year per DVOA. This number is too tempting at +700 for a Steelers team that upgraded their roster and has dominated the Ravens the past four seasons.

AFC North Winner Picks

The Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers

I believe in Tomlin and this Steelers defense, and I expect Pittsburgh to add a significant wideout shortly. With an offensive line that our own Dan Fornek ranks 10th in the league, I’m grabbing the Steelers as the biggest longshot in the toughest division in football. 

Wild Card: Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are too strong to miss the playoffs, so they earn a Wild Card spot behind Pittsburgh. Their defense may be weaker, but the combination of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry will make the Ravens a tough battle in cold weather games late in the season.