Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
While the summer solstice officially marks the beginning of our hottest season, the NFL has already brought an enhanced focus content for the upcoming season. Articles, podcasts and Twitter timelines are zeroing in on the upcoming season, and best ball content is flowing like water. Sportsbooks have posted a plethora of future NFL bets such as player props and conference champions.
Over the next few weeks, I’ll provide NFL betting content by previewing every division. I’ll cover key divisional storylines, provide a breakdown for each team and give out my favorite bet to win each division. I previewed the AFC East on Tuesday, backing the Jets to end a 22-year drought as divisional champions. Today, we dive into the NFC East.
NFC East Betting Preview
The Dallas Cowboys earned their second NFC East title in the past three seasons with a strong 12-5 record, including five straight wins from Week 10 to Week 14. This is the division of parity, with a different team winning the title for 19 straight seasons. Per Sports Odds History, we can see that the projected NFC East champion has sometimes cashed incredible odds from the month of June.
| Year | Team | Record | Odds on June 1 |
| 2002 | Philadelphia Eagles | 12–4 | -180 |
| 2003 | Philadelphia Eagles | 12–4 | -180 |
| 2004 | Philadelphia Eagles | 13–3 | -185 |
| 2005 | New York Giants | 11–5 | +700 |
| 2006 | Philadelphia Eagles | 10–6 | +275 |
| 2007 | Dallas Cowboys | 13–3 | +180 |
| 2008 | New York Giants | 12–4 | +325 |
| 2009 | Dallas Cowboys | 11–5 | +175 |
| 2010 | Philadelphia Eagles | 10–6 | +275 |
| 2011 | New York Giants | 9-7 | +300 |
| 2012 | Washington Commanders | 10–6 | +1000 |
| 2013 | Philadelphia Eagles | 10–6 | +350 |
| 2014 | Dallas Cowboys | 12–4 | +500 |
| 2015 | Washington Commanders | 9–7 | +3500 |
| 2016 | Dallas Cowboys | 13–3 | +200 |
| 2017 | Philadelphia Eagles | 13–3 | +250 |
| 2018 | Dallas Cowboys | 10–6 | +350 |
| 2019 | Philadelphia Eagles | 9–7 | -160 |
| 2020 | Washington Commanders | 7–9 | +2200 |
| 2021 | Dallas Cowboys | 12–5 | +135 |
| 2022 | Philadelphia Eagles | 14-3 | +130 |
| 2023 | Dallas Cowboys | 12-5 | +175 |
Currently, the Eagles (+115) and Cowboys (+130) are co-favorites, with both the Commanders (+800) and Giants (+1200) as long shots. Will Dallas break the curse and repeat as NFC East champions? Can Philadelphia bounce back after a disappointing season and reclaim their crown? Can Washington utilize the dynamic dual-threat of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels to provide a similar surprise to the 2020 season? Will the Giants pull off one of the biggest surprises of the 2024 season?
Here’s my betting breakdown of the NFC East.
New York Giants
(DraftKings Division Title Odds: +1200)
So, you’re telling me there’s a chance?
No one is backing the Giants to win the NFC East, but I certainly can see the value of backing New York as a long shot. The Giants had a great draft, adding a dynamic wide receiver in Malik Nabers, a cornerback with elite burst in Dru Phillips and the best safety in the draft in Tyler Nubin. There were rumors of tension between head coach Brian Daboll and former defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, so the Giants brought in Shane Bowen from Tennessee. Last year, the Titans ranked first in red-zone scoring allowed, while ranking top 10 in run defense DVOA. The most important hire is Carmen Bricillo as the offensive line coach, tasked to fix a group that allowed the second-most sacks (85) in NFL history.
The Giants need a lot to go right, but they return a great defensive line and solid linebackers. If Phillips and Nubin acclimate quickly, this defense will be one of the NFL’s best, led by the huge offseason signing of defensive end Brian Burns.
Can Daniel Jones return to his respectable 2022 level with a fortified offensive line and fully healthy/improved receiving core? It’s not my preferred pick, but at +1200? I’m intrigued.
Washington Commanders
(DraftKings Division Title Odds: +800)
Do you want to bet on the unknown? Washington will enter the season with a new head coach (Dan Quinn), new offensive coordinator (Kliff Kingsbury), new defensive coordinator (Joe Whitt Jr.) and a rookie quarterback (Jayden Daniels). But could that be a good thing?
Daniels is a dynamic two-way threat that NFL coaches will see for the first time. Washington added versatile running back Austin Ekeler and paired athletic rookie tight end Ben Sinnott with accomplished veteran Zach Ertz. Washington was just 4-6 in one-score games last season and has the seventh-easiest nonconference strength of schedule. In many ways, it’s the perfect setup for a long shot division-winner bet.
The Commanders are hopeful Quinn can fix a Washington defense that ranked second worst in defensive DVOA last season. Daniels could be a disaster, or he could provide a C.J. Stroud-level rookie performance. Their win total is only 6.5, but is juiced to the over, the only team with a juiced over in the division. The bet here is unknown upside, which we have seen Washington execute three times as massive divisional underdogs in 2012, 2015 and 2020.
Dallas Cowboys
(DraftKings Division Title Odds: +130)
I’m concerned about Dallas this year.
The Cowboys’ offense succeeded despite a lackluster rushing attack, as quarterback Dak Prescott led the league in passing touchdowns (36) and was third in passing yards (4516). Dallas cut ties with the inefficient Tony Pollard but will now reunite with aging Ezekiel Elliott as their lead running back.
There are internal issues with CeeDee Lamb’s contract negotiations, and serious depth questions at the receiver position. Their defense, while ranking fifth overall in defensive DVOA can be very feast or famine, and was blowtorched by Jordan Love and the Packers in their 48-32 home playoff loss. Dallas is also 16-1 at home the last two seasons, which is due for negative regression.
The Cowboys also face a much tougher schedule, which ranks 11th-hardest overall per Vegas projected win totals. Their second-hardest nonconference strength of schedule includes home matchups against Baltimore, Cincinnati, Detroit and Houston with road contests at Cleveland, Pittsburgh and San Francisco. Throw in the trend of the defending champion never repeating in the NFC East, and I’m fading Dallas at +130 to buck that trend in 2024.
Philadelphia Eagles
(DraftKings Division Title Odds: +115)
The Eagles still have the most talent in the division and added two fantastic coordinators in Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio. Their secondary struggled mightily last year, but general manager Howie Roseman added two athletic rookies in Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell. I project the Eagles defense to resemble their 2022 version (third overall in DVOA), more than last year’s disappointment (29th overall).
There are certainly questions on offense, with All-Pro center Jason Kelce retiring. Will the Tush Push be just as effective? But when compared to Dallas, the Eagles are vastly superior on the offensive line, running back position and wide receiver depth chart. Philadelphia added an elite running back in Saquon Barkley, which complements their two elite pass-catchers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
Philadelphia has a projected win total of 10.5, but will likely see some regression from their 9-3 record in one-score games. I don’t love the low odds, but it’s still tough to fade this Eagles team with so much talent on offense.
NFC East Winner Picks
The Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
I still think the Eagles are far superior to the Cowboys, so I’m grabbing them at plus-money value. Fangio should improve the defense, especially with the rookie additions. Jalen Hurts has his critics, but his rushing upside is undeniable. I’m backing the Eagles to return to the top of the NFC East and wouldn’t be surprised to see these odds fall as we get closer to Week 1, especially with the ninth-easiest schedule per Vegas projected win totals.
Wild Card: Washington Commanders
One of my favorite NFL stats? Four new teams have made the playoffs every season since 1990. I’m buying the upside of the Jayden Daniels-Kliff Kingsbury pairing, as well as Quinn’s long-standing reputation at building a solid defense. Give me the fast-paced Washington attack at +260 on DraftKings to make the playoffs and finish ahead of Dallas.
