NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
It’s time to look ahead to the 2023 NFL season! Follow along with all our fantasy football team offseason roundups here.
It’s been a very busy NFL offseason, with free agent signings, coaching changes and several new players entering the league via the NFL Draft. As we prepare for the 2023 fantasy football season, it’s critical to have a full understanding of each team’s offseason moves. Our NFL team roundup series today covers the Tennessee Titans.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: Tennessee Titans
2022 Results
Record: 7-10, 2nd in the AFC South
Season End: Missed the playoffs
Tennessee Titans Offseason Summary
Draft
1.11: Peter Skoronski, T/G, Northwestern
2.33: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
3.81: Tyjae Spears, RB, Tulane
5.147: Josh Whyle, TE, Cincinnati
6.186: Jaelyn Duncan, T, Maryland
7.228: Colton Dowell, WR, UT Martin
Peter Skoronski, T/G (1.11)
The Titans could have drafted Will Levis with the No. 11 pick and no one would have batted an eye. But the team may have its cake and eat it, too, with Skoronski in the first and Levis in the second. Incumbent left tackle Taylor Lewan made three straight Pro Bowls in his prime 2016-18 seasons. But he suffered major knee injuries in 2020 and 2022 — the latter of which ended his season after just two starts — and will be 32 years old when the new season kicks off this September. Tennessee would have needed a long-term plan even if they hadn’t let Lewan walk in free agency this offseason. The bigger question with Skoronski will be whether he sticks at tackle or guard. He excelled in the former role at Northwestern but has a prototypical guard build, most notably with his short 32-and-a-quarter-inch arms.
Will Levis, QB (2.33)
Levis always made stylistic sense for the Titans. He has the willingness to stand in the pocket to take hits and the arm strength to allow for explosive plays in a play-action-oriented offense. The tradeoff of an elevated sack rate will be nothing new for a team that has started Ryan Tannehill the last four seasons. And Levis adds a dimension that Tannehill doesn’t as a runner. The intrigue stems from the Titans’ decision to pass on Levis with the No. 11 pick and trade up and take him at the start of the second round. That maneuvering cost the team a potential fifth-year option that would represent a decent cost savings if Levis developed into an elite quarterback. But it might also lower expectations and lessen the blow if Levis ends up a bust.
Tyjae Spears, RB (3.81)
If the Will Levis pick tipped the Titans’ plans, then the Spears pick confirmed that the team has started to build for the future. Derrick Henry has been the man at running back since his 2018 breakout. But he is now 29 years old, an age when many of his bell-cow predecessors have started to decline. If the team transitions to Levis in 2023, then Henry might make more sense for another team in its championship window. Spears is a compelling draft pick because his versatility as a runner and receiver and smaller 5-foot-10 and 201-pound frame make him a potential Henry complement. And Spears could have a shorter career than his contemporaries because he is missing an ACL in one of his knees. Perhaps the Titans are trying to thread the needle, allowing themselves the option to lean into a competitive 2023 if they start hot but leaving a door open for an in-season blow-up and build for the future.
Additions
Free agent signings: EDGE Arden Key, T Andre Dillard, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, G Daniel Brunskill, WR Chris Moore, LB Luke Gifford, TE Trevon Wesco, LB Ben Niemann, DT Jaleel Johnson
Arden Key, EDGE
Key has never threatened Bud Dupree sack totals or come particularly close. In fact, his modest 4.5 sacks from 2022 were just two off a career high. But Key has been consistently disruptive with 30 or more pass pressures in his three healthy seasons. His $21 million contract is a major discount relative to the team’s released veteran. And subjectively, the swap earns a boost from the fact that the Titans saw Key twice in 2022 when he played for their division rival Jaguars.
If the Titans decide that first-round rookie Peter Skoronski should play guard instead of tackle, then Dillard looks like their best alternative at left tackle. That plan makes sense based on pedigree. Dillard was a Round 1 draft pick back in 2019. But the former Eagles lineman underwhelmed with a position-worst 8.2% blown block rate as a rookie, missed his sophomore season with a biceps injury, and then played limited snaps in the two seasons since. Dillard is a reasonable sleeper target with the hope that a change in scenery and coaching staff can unlock his natural talent. But the Titans do not have an obvious back-up plan if that plan falls short.
Murphy-Bunting played dramatically better than his established standard, allowing an extremely low 4.5 yards per target in 2022. And the veteran played less and missed time with a quad injury. Chances are, he will see that efficiency regress with more playing time in 2023. But if Titans fans are curious if they moved the needle with their cornerback addition, they can just ask Murphy-Bunting’s former Bucs coach and long-time defensive coordinator, Todd Bowles.
Departures
T Taylor Lewan, G Nate Davis, DT DeMarcus Walker, WR Robert Woods, LB Zach Cunningham, C Ben Jones, LB David Long, TE Geoff Swaim, CB A.J. Moore, EDGE Bud Dupree, K Randy Bullock, TE Austin Hooper, QB Joshua Dobbs, G Dennis Daley, WR Chris Conley, RB Dontrell Hilliard, DT Mario Edwards, LB Dylan Cole, DT Kevin Strong, T Le’Raven Clark, CB Lonnie Johnson, CB Terrance Mitchell, R Trenton Cannon, CB Greg Mabin, S Andrew Adams, EDGE Tarell Basham, EDGE Da’Shawn Hand, CB Davontae Harris, LB Andre Smith, LB Joseph Jones, C Daniel Munyer, WR C.J. Board, S Joshua Kalu, WR Cody Hollister
Taylor Lewan, T
Lewan hasn’t suffered a dramatic decline in his performance since his glory days of three straight Pro Bowls from 2016 to 2018. His 2.7% blown block rate from 2021 was fairly strong for the position. But Lewan missed the bulk of both his 2020 and 2022 seasons with major knee injuries. And that string of post-30 injuries made his $15 million cap hit untenable. The team released Lewan in mid-February. And the veteran has so far failed to find a new team and may not find one judging by the lawsuit he filed against his knee surgeon, Dr. James Andrews.
Robert Woods, WR
The veteran Woods may have been several years removed from his A.J. Brown-volume receiving seasons with the Rams in 2018 and 2019. But his versatility as a receiver and a run-blocker made him an on-paper fit for a Titans team that leans on the run and uses it to establish a play-action passing game. Unfortunately for the team, Woods saw his former standout average yards after the catch crater to 2.94 yards in 2022, 10th lowest among the 51 wideouts with 50 or more catches. And the team subsequently released him this offseason.
Bud Dupree, EDGE
The Titans took a risk when they signed Dupree to an $82.5 million deal coming off a December ACL tear with his former Steelers. And while the pass rusher eventually shook the knee injury, he missed a third of his 2022 season with a hip injury, as well — presumably as compensation for his balky knee. Some $20-plus million on the wrong side of the salary cap, the team couldn’t afford to bet on Dupree bouncing back to his 40-plus pressure, 10-plus sack, pre-injury standard and released him this offseason.
Tennessee Titans Fantasy Outlook
The three most interesting Titans fantasy options:
Derrick Henry, RB
The two-time All-Pro runner Derrick Henry missed half of the 2021 season with a broken foot and teased a potential decline with a career worst 19.2% broken tackle rate. But even at 28 years old, Henry bounced back in 2022 with a 22.1% broken tackle rate that was sixth best at the position and played to that exceptional standard over a position-leading 349 carries. I’m not sure normal aging rules apply to the 6-foot-3, 247-pound veteran. And so the biggest mystery with Henry’s 2023 fantasy prospects may be whether he finishes the season with the Titans or is traded in-season to a more definitive contender.
Treylon Burks, WR
Treylon Burks missed a chunk of his rookie season with toe and head injuries and made just modest contributions of 444 yards and one touchdown when he played. It may have been too much to expect the first-rounder to come in and replace a Pro Bowler in A.J. Brown. But Burks does seem to share Brown’s talent for generating yards after the catch. His 4.88 average YAC on limited catches in 2023 was in the upper quarter of regular wide receivers.
Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE
Chigoziem Okonkwo was a middling tight end prospect as a fourth-round draft pick and made a modest impact by volume with just 32 catches in his freshman season. But the rookie was wildly efficient on those catches with 2.92 yards per route run, the highest rate among regulars at the position and in a top five that rounds out with Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Dallas Goedert and George Kittle. Perhaps it was a small-sample quirk. But Okonkwo may be a perfect fit for the Titans’ play-action passing offense and is a compelling sleeper bet at the position in fantasy.
2023 Outlook
DraftKings Sportsbook Wins Over/Under: 7.5 (+110)
The Titans have seemed to straddle the compete-versus-rebuild fence this offseason, keeping their veteran pair of Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry but drafting their eventual replacements Will Levis and Tyjae Spears. The first two months could tip the scales in either direction. And as such, I side with the under since the team faces a front-loaded schedule with the competitive Saints, Chargers, Browns, Bengals and Ravens in their first six weeks before a Week 7 bye. The Titans could well have traded their star back Henry and benched Tannehill for Levis by the time they stack beatable opponents in the Falcons, Steelers, Bucs, and Panthers. And while their No. 1 run defense by DVOA could keep them in games if they fall behind. The Titans will still need to score some points to make it to eight or more wins.
