Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
It’s time to look ahead to the 2023 NFL season! Follow along with all our fantasy football team offseason roundups here.
It’s been a very busy NFL offseason, with free agent signings, coaching changes and several new players entering the league via the NFL Draft. As we prepare for the 2023 fantasy football season, it’s critical to have a full understanding of each team’s offseason moves. Our NFL team roundup series today covers the Detroit Lions.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: Detroit Lions
2022 Results
Record: 9-8; 2nd in the NFC North
Season End: Missed the playoffs; knocked Packers out of the playoffs on last day of season
Detroit Lions Offseason Summary
Draft
1.12: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
1.18: Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa
2.34: Sam LaPorta, TE, Iowa
2.45: Brian Branch, S, Alabama
3.68: Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
3.96: Brodric Martin, DT, Western Kentucky
5.152: Colby Sorsdal, OT, William & Mary
7.219: Antoine Green, WR, North Carolina
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB (1.12)
The biggest surprise of the Round 1 was the Lions taking the No. 2 running back in the class 12th overall. Jahmyr Gibbs is a very talented back, but he was widely considered a second-round pick. Still, he should have at least a heavy receiving load as a rookie and will split the carry load with free agent signee David Montgomery.
Sam LaPorta, TE (2.34)
This year’s tight end draft class didn’t have any Kyle Pitts-like studs at the top, but it was one of the deepest groups we’ve ever seen. The Lions made Sam LaPorta the second tight end off the board with the third pick in the second round. Detroit was one of five teams to get 10-plus touchdowns out of the tight end position last year, but they had the fewest yards (784) of those five. After the T.J. Hockenson trade, Brock Wright, Shane Zylstra and James Mitchell all scored touchdowns but didn’t do much else. That means there’s touchdown upside here, and if LaPorta can accumulate yardage better than last year’s backups, he’s got room for production even as a rookie.
Hendon Hooker, QB (3.68)
The Lions chose a veritable redshirt in the third round, grabbing Hendon Hooker despite the fact he’s going to miss most or all of his rookie year as he recovers from a torn ACL and might be 26 by the time he debuts in the NFL. That said, the team is running out the clock on Jared Goff’s tenure, and if Hooker can develop into a starter, that’s a problem they won’t have to address later.
Additions
Free agent signings: CB Cameron Sutton, LB Alex Anzalone, RB David Montgomery, S C.J. Gardner-Johnson, CB Emmanuel Moseley, WR Marvin Jones, G Graham Glasgow, LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin, LS Jake McQuaide, T Germain Ifedi, DT Christian Covington, T Matt Nelson
Trades: K Riley Patterson
David Montgomery, RB
The Lions went through 3-4 different backfield narratives this offseason. Everyone assumed they’d bring Jamaal Williams back, but then they signed David Montgomery, so we assumed it’d be a Montgomery/D’Andre Swift backfield. Then when they drafted Jahmyr Gibbs, everyone assumed a three-headed monster, right up until they shipped Swift to Philadelphia. Now it’s a Gibbs/Montgomery backfield, with Montgomery taking on the Williams role from last year. That was very productive in 2022, though the touchdown luck seems unlikely to repeat.
Cameron Sutton/Emmanuel Moseley, CB/C.J. Gardner-Johnson, S
Only two teams allowed more passing yards per game last year than the Lions’ 261.5, and their 12.6 yards per reception allowed (12.6) was the worst in the league by a lot (the Steelers’ 12.2 was the only other number of 12.0 or worse). They set out to fix it this offseason with three big-name free agent additions.
Marvin Jones, WR
Marvin Jones might be done, with his lowest full-season targets, receptions and yards in a decade and the lowest overall PFF grade of his career, and his return to Detroit initially just seemed like a farewell tour for a longtime Lion after a couple years in Jacksonville. But with second-year receiver Jameson Williams suspended for six games, maybe Jones can have one last hurrah as the short-term No. 2 pass-catcher in this offense.
Departures
RB D’Andre Swift, RB Jamaal Williams, CB Mike Hughes, CB Jeff Okudah, WR DJ Chark, LB Chris Board, G Evan Brown, S DeShon Elliott, LB Josh Woods, CB Amani Oruwariye, DT Michael Brockers, LB Jarrad Davis, RB Justin Jackson, WR Quintez Cephus
D’Andre Swift, RB
D’Andre Swift hasn’t fulfilled the promise of when he was the second running back off the board in the 2020 draft, especially with 2021 overall RB1 Jonathan Taylor going off the board six picks later. But he’s had plenty of ceiling games, with 12 top-10 weekly PPR finishes in 40 games over three years. He heads to Philadelphia where he’ll work alongside Rashaad Penny, Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott and QB Jalen Hurts.
Jamaal Williams, RB
Here’s a list of all running backs in the last decade with most touchdowns in a season than Jamaal Williams’ 17 in 2022: LeGarrette Blount in 2016, Jonathan Taylor in 2021. That was more rushing scores than the 13 Williams had in his five-year career prior to 2022. Translation: Don’t count on that repeating. He lands in New Orleans this offseason as the No. 2 to Alvin Kamara.
Jeff Okudah, CB
It never came together in Detroit for Jeff Okudah, the third overall pick in the 2020 draft. He showed flashes of elite play but never had an overall PFF defense grade of even 60.0 in three seasons. He’ll try for a change-of-scenery breakout in Atlanta as Detroit rebuilt its secondary in free agency.
Detroit Lions Fantasy Outlook
The three most interesting Lions fantasy options:
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR
The people who thought Amon-Ra St. Brown’s late-season breakout in 2021 was a fluke built on being the only target in the Detroit offense were silenced in a hurry in 2022, as he had 23 receptions on 33 targets for 243 yards and 3 scores in Weeks 1-3 last year and was the WR3. An injury slowed St. Brown down a bit from there, but he recovered to finish the year as the PPR WR7. He’s going off the board as WR9 in early drafts this year, and he brings maybe the single highest floor at the position.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB
As mentioned above, Jahmyr Gibbs was a surprise pick at 12th overall. It’s hard to imagine a team taking a back that high without a plan to give him a lot of work, and given that Gibbs’ best attribute (arguably) is his receiving, he has a real shot at being a prime PPR asset as a rookie.
Jameson Williams, WR
Jameson Williams was one of the most popular breakout picks in all of fantasy before news of his six-game suspension came out. Now we’ll have to wait a month and a half to see him debut in 2023, and that’s after he barely saw the field as a rookie in 2022. That said, there is nothing even remotely resembling a sure thing in the Detroit receiver room after St. Brown, so Williams should get his shot when he’s back, and given his blazing speed, he could be a big factor from midseason on.
2023 Outlook
DraftKings Sportsbook Wins Over/Under: 9.5 (-120)
NFC North odds: +130
After being one of the league’s most fun teams in 2022 and not getting eliminated from the playoffs until late afternoon on the last day of the season, a lot more is expected out of the Lions in 2023, and they open as the division favorites. There’s still work to be done, as the team’s defensive line is lacking and the backfield and receiver group are unproven, and of course Jared Goff was a castoff from another wannabe contender only a couple years ago, but the Lions could be one of the most fun teams again this year.
