Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
With the start of the 2023 NFL and fantasy football season around the corner, I will be going team by team recapping notable moves in the offseason, projecting their outlook for the upcoming league year. I’ll be using the FTN Prop Shop Tool to pick out my favorite bets with the best line available, today covering the Miami Dolphins. Stay up to date on the action placed by myself and the rest of the FTN crew in real-time with the FTN Bet Tracker. You can also follow @FTNAlerts on Twitter with push notifications turned on.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: Miami Dolphins
2022 Results
Record: 9-8; 2nd in the AFC East
Season End: Lost 34-31 at the Buffalo Bills in the Wild Card Round
Miami Dolphins Offseason Summary
Draft
2.51: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
3.84: Devon Achane, RB, Texas A&M
6.197: Elijah Higgins, TE, Stanford
7.238: Ryan Hayes, T, Michigan
Cam Smith, CB (2.51)
The Dolphins made just four draft picks in 2023 after trading two for Tyreek Hill last offseason and losing another for violating the league’s tampering rules. And the first of those, Cam Smith, may not play much in his rookie season behind All-Pro outside corners Xavien Howard and Jalen Ramsey. But that timeline might also suit Smith, who scouts see as a standout athlete and build for the position with room to develop his technique.
Devon Achane, RB (3.84)
Devon Achane slipped further than I expected in the draft after he lapped the field at his position with a 4.32-second combine 40 time. But he also landed in the perfect offense for his skill set in Miami. Achane’s speed should stretch the field horizontally and open up space for his receiver teammates to rack up yards after the catch. And Achane has the potential to make his own impact as a receiver. He doubled up his common draft comp Jamaal Charles with a 15.0% versus an 8.4% college reception ratio.
Elijah Higgins, WR/TE (6.197)
Elijah Higgins had modest production in three seasons at Stanford, in particular with just six career touchdowns. But his 6-foot-3, 235-pound frame offers him the potential to develop in the red zone and perhaps even as a blocker if the Dolphins see him more as an F tight end prospect than as a wide receiver. I may be guilty of a Mike McDaniel halo effect. But Higgins seems dramatically more interesting on the Dolphins than he would be on most other teams.
Additions
Free agent additions: LB David Long, QB Mike White, WR Braxton Berrios, G Dan Feeney, LB Andrew Van Ginkel, T Isaiah Wynn, S DeShon Elliott, TE Eric Saubert, T Cedric Ogbuehi, WR Chosen Anderson, TE Tyler Kroft, LB Malik Reed, P Jake Bailey
Trade additions: CB Jalen Ramsey
Isaiah Wynn, T
The Dolphins swung and missed on a handful of Day 1 and 2 offensive line draft picks in Austin Jackson, Robert Hunt and Liam Eichenberg in 2020 and 2021. And their high-priced free agent left tackle solution Terron Armstead validated the public injury concern with four missed weeks because of myriad pectoral, hip, knee and toe injuries in 2022. The former first-rounder Isaiah Wynn is a low-cost bet at a $2.3 million salary. But the team needs either he or Jackson to play a starter-worthy right tackle or else they open the left-handed Tua Tagovailoa up to more blind-side hits.
Jalen Ramsey, CB
Byron Jones underwhelmed on his $82.5 million Dolphins contract, falling precipitously from 6.2 yards per target in 2019 to 10.6 and 8.1 in 2020 and 2021 and then missing 2022 with an Achilles injury. The 28-year-old Ramsey may be past his prime, as well. His yards-per-target average has trended up from 5.0 to 6.4 to 7.2 the last few seasons. But the Dolphins’ decision to trade for the two-time All-Pro clarifies their perceived timeline. They want to compete for a Super Bowl this season.
Mike White, QB
If everything goes to plan this season, Mike White will never see the field. But Tua Tagovailoa has missed time in all three of his professional seasons. A pessimist could wonder if the often-concussed starter is a bad hit away from the end of his career. White has a perfectly average 0.0% passing DVOA rate the last two seasons, which makes him dramatically more efficient than an average backup. But it would be interesting to see how he fit into an explosive downfield offense if he were pressed into duty. Since 2021, White has averaged more than a yard in the air less (6.8-yard aDOT vs. 8.1) than the man he will replace in Miami, the notoriously conservative Teddy Bridgewater.
Departures
LB Elandon Roberts, TE Mike Gesicki, WR Trent Sherfield, CB Byron Jones, QB Teddy Bridgewater, LB Melvin Ingram, TE Hunter Long, LT Eric Fisher, S Clayton Fejedelem, T Brandon Shell, S Eric Rowe, DT John Jenkins, P Thomas Morstead, G Michael Deiter, T Greg Little, TE Cethan Carter, TE Adam Shaheen, EDGE Trey Flowers, LB Sam Eguavoen, CB Trill Williams
Mike Gesicki, TE
Mike Gesicki would have seemed like more major a loss after he caught 73 passes for 780 yards in 2021. But the veteran tight end was a poor fit for head coach Mike McDaniel’s preferred wide zone scheme — he cannot block, and he does his best work before the catch. His departure for New England can only help his box scores. But it opens up a potential third receiver role in Miami, perhaps for a slot man like Braxton Berrios or for the hybrid rookie receiver/tight end Elijah Higgins.
Byron Jones, CB
Still just 30 years old, Byron Jones would not normally be a terrible bet for at least a moderate return to form in 2023. But as of February, Jones reported that he could not run or jump and suffered chronic pain because of the myriad injuries he suffered in his career. He may not have delivered the All-Pro standard the Dolphins expected when they signed him to his massive contract. But unfortunately, Jones appears to have seen the worse side of that deal.
Trent Sherfield, WR
Trent Sherfield was not a major part of the Dolphins offense in 2022 even as he set personal career highs of 30 catches and 417 yards. His departure seems most meaningful as a sign of growth for 40-year-old, second-year head coach Mike McDaniel. McDaniel leaned heavily on the familiar with Year 1 additions of Sherfield, Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson and Mohamed Sanu from his former 49ers team. Now, he is branching out to skill players from other teams with more clearly defined skill sets like the speedy Chosen Anderson and twitchy Braxton Berrios. There is little doubt it will be fun to watch.
Schedule
Week 1 – @ Los Angeles Chargers (Dolphins +3)
Week 2 – @ New England Patriots
Week 3 – Denver Broncos
Week 4 – @ Buffalo Bills
Week 5 – New York Giants
Week 6 – Carolina Panthers
Week 7 – @ Philadelphia Eagles
Week 8 – New England Patriots
Week 9 – Kansas City Chiefs
Week 10 – BYE
Week 11 – Las Vegas Raiders
Week 12 – @ New York Jets
Week 13 – @ Washington Commanders
Week 14 – Tennessee Titans
Week 15 – New York Jets
Week 16 – Dallas Cowboys
Week 17 – @ Baltimore Ravens
Week 18 – Buffalo Bills
2023 Future Odds
FanDuel/BetMGM: Wins Over/Under: 9.5 (-110/-110)
DraftKings/BetMGM/Caesars/Bet365/PointsBet/Unibet/Second-Chance Bet: To Win AFC East (+300)
The Dolphins finally ended their six-year playoff drought in Mike McDaniel’s first season, making the postseason for the first time since 2016. As an offense, Miami ranked sixth in yards per game (364.5), averaging the second most yards per play (6.1), trailing only the Chiefs. The addition of Tyreek Hill helped unlock their aerial attack, ranked No. 4 in passing DVOA, with a league-high 14 completions of 40 or more yards. Even without Tua Tagovailoa for nearly a quarter of the season, Miami won nine of 17 games, finishing second in the AFC East. If Tagovailoa can stay healthy, it’s #FinsUp for the Dolphins who have a path to recording double-digit wins next season. However, I prefer staying away from their 9.5-win total and taking the longer shot to win the division at +300 odds. Their biggest hurdle will be overtaking the Bills, who have won the AFC East in each of the last three seasons. Miami split the series 1-1 against Buffalo in the regular season, losing by only a field goal with Skylar Thompson under center in the playoffs.
Best Bets
FanDuel/BetMGM/Caesars: To Make Playoffs (-105)
The Dolphins were resilient last season, narrowly making the playoffs as the final Wild Card team. They finished just above .500 (9-8) in the regular season but won two-thirds of their games started and completed by Tua Tagovailoa (8-4). Condensing the sample to when Tagovailoa was not medically diagnosed with a concussion postgame, Miami went 8-3. Betting on Tagovailoa’s health is a risky proposition, but the talent on the roster, paired with one of the best offensive schemes in the NFL, gives Miami enough firepower to still be viewed as a contender with a backup quarterback. They also added an insurance plan this offseason, signing former Jets’ signal caller, Mike White, who proved to be a competent starter in his time in New York.
DraftKings/FanDuel: Tyreek Hill Offensive Player of The Year (+2000)
FanDuel: Most Receiving Yards (+900)
The Dolphins mortgaged their future to trade for Tyreek Hill last offseason, sending six draft picks to Kansas City in exchange for the All-Pro wide receiver. Before he logged a single snap, Miami signed Hill to a four-year extension, making him the highest-paid player at the position. Hill showed he was more than a product of the Andy Reid system in his first year with a different team, recording a career-high 119 passes for 1,710 receiving yards, trailing only the offensive player of the year, Justin Jefferson, in both categories. In 13 games with Tua Tagovailoa under center, Hill averaged 108.31 receiving yards, on pace for 1,841.27 receiving in a 17-game season, the fifth most in NFL history. He led the league with 3.07 yards per route run across the full season in 2022, which shot up to 3.41 YPRR when Tagovailoa was on the field. Hill has vowed to record 2,000 receiving yards next season, which is well within reach, and likely to lead the league in that category in 2023. I like to parlay Hill’s most receiving yards prop (+900) with Offensive Player of the Year (+2000), considering the last two recipients of the award, Justin Jefferson and Cooper Kupp, have also led the league in receiving yards.
